Friday's nine-game NBA slate brings 27 race-to-points markets to watch on Kalshi. Our tool, RallyTimeMarkets.com, compares historical NBA race-to-10, race-to-20, and race-to-30 results against current market prices to identify potential opportunities.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers First to 10 Points
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Miami Heat | 8:00 PM ET
The Trade: Cavaliers YES at 49¢
Historical Rate: 65.2%
Why We Like It:
Cleveland has reached 10 points first in 8 of 12 games (66.7%) this season, while Miami has lost the race to 10 in 7 of 11 games (63.6%). Combining those two historical rates gives the Cavaliers a 65.2% reference rate, compared with the current 49¢ asking price.
The Cavaliers enter tonight following a 115–107 road victory over the Knicks, while Miami returns home after winning its last two games. Cleveland will be without Evan Mobley, putting added pressure on Jarrett Allen against Miami’s formidable frontcourt duo of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo.
2. Utah Jazz First to 20 Points
Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets | 8:30 PM ET
The Trade: Rockets NO at 30¢
Historical Rate: 45.8%
Why We Like It:
Utah has reached 20 points first in 8 of 12 games (66.7%) this season, while Houston has lost the race to 20 in 3 of 12 games (25.0%). Combining those two historical rates gives the Jazz a 45.8% reference rate, compared with the current 30¢ asking price.
The Jazz enter tonight on a 10-game losing streak and will be without Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Jusuf Nurkic. Utah will rely heavily on young guards Keyonte George and Darryn Peterson for offense, while Houston enters at 9–3 behind Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun. The Rockets are heavy favorites to win the game, making Utah's early-scoring opportunity a riskier pick despite the historical price gap.
Why Rockets NO? Buying Rockets NO means you're backing Utah to reach 20 points first, just like buying Jazz YES. At the time of analysis, Rockets NO costs 30¢ compared with 32¢ for Jazz YES, making it the cheaper way to take the same side under standard two-outcome settlement.
3. Indiana Pacers First to 10 Points
New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers | 7:00 PM ET
The Trade: Pacers YES at 44¢
Historical Rate: 56.8%
Why We Like It:
Indiana has reached 10 points first in 6 of 12 games (50.0%) this season, while New York has lost the race to 10 in 7 of 11 games (63.6%). Combining those two historical rates gives the Pacers a 56.8% reference rate, compared with the current 44¢ asking price.
The Pacers enter tonight following a 114–101 victory over Washington, while the Knicks are coming off a 115–107 loss to Cleveland and will be playing their third game in four nights. Indiana remains without Tyrese Haliburton, putting more responsibility on Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard against a Knicks team led by Jalen Brunson. New York has also lost its last three races to 10, an interesting trend heading into tonight's matchup.
📊 How RallyTimeMarkets Finds These Picks
Rallytime Markets analyzes NBA play-by-play data to track which teams reach 10, 20, and 30 points first.
For each matchup, the tool averages two historical measures:
Offensive Rate: How often a team reaches the target first.
Opponent's Losing Rate: How often its opponent fails to reach the target first.
That average is then compared with available Kalshi contract prices to identify discrepancies.
Important: Historical rates are not guaranteed probabilities or proven trading edges. The comparisons use a relatively small sample of games and do not adjust for injuries, opponent strength, or other changing conditions.
Prices reflect the November 13 snapshot around 4:08 PM ET and exclude fees. Prices can change before tip-off. Always check individual market rules.
See all 27 race markets and updated prices at RallytimeMarkets.com.