Prediction News Network delivers clear context and insight on tradable events, informed both by the event itself and the current price.

Trending Today: Netflix’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery's studios and streaming unit could create a Netflix + HBO Max bundle. Predict whether that means Netflix will increase the price this year with Kalshi.

Today’s Video Rundown

What’s Happening: The situation has escalated fast. The Bucks are 9–13, losers of eight of their last nine, and the on-court slide has finally pushed Giannis to act. On Tuesday he wiped his social media of Bucks content. By Wednesday, Shams reported Giannis and his agent have begun formal conversations with Milwaukee about his future — and that a resolution is expected in the coming weeks. Multiple outlets now say Giannis already asked for a trade over the summer, specifically naming the Knicks as his preferred landing spot.

Windhorst reaffirmed that request this week, noting Giannis had given Milwaukee the first 25 games to show progress. Instead, the season unraveled, and league insiders now view a divorce as the likely outcome. Giannis’ calf strain clouds the short-term timeline but not the direction: the breakup is underway.

Market Pricing

Scenarios: If Milwaukee accelerates talks in the next 1–2 weeks — as Shams indicates — New York is the cleanest path. They've already had trade discussions, Giannis preferred them in August, and they can meet Milwaukee’s demand for young talent + picks. That would likely push NYK into the mid/high-30s.

If the calf injury slows the timeline but not the decision, expect a temporary bump in “Stays” as traders hedge for delays, not commitment.

If Milwaukee opens the field beyond Giannis’ preferred list, OKC, Houston, and San Antonio become serious bidders. OKC’s asset pile gives them the strongest offer potential; Houston has the most ready young talent; San Antonio offers the Wemby pairing Giannis reportedly finds intriguing. Each would pressure NYK pricing downward.

Trading Takeaway: This is no longer rumor — Giannis has previously requested a trade, the Bucks have underperformed, and both sides are now openly discussing his future. New York remains the most structurally advantaged bidder, and at 29¢ the market still underprices their head start. Position: Long New York at 29¢ — cleanest fit, clearest reporting trail, and strongest upside if Milwaukee moves quickly.

What’s Happening: Pete Hegseth’s position is under its harshest spotlight yet. A classified Inspector General review confirms he shared sensitive, strike-timing details about Yemen operations on Signal using a personal device — a violation of Pentagon policy and a documented operational-security risk.

That alone would rattle the Cabinet market, but the political detonator is elsewhere: mounting bipartisan scrutiny over the Sept. 2 Caribbean boat strikes, including allegations that survivors of an initial attack were deliberately killed. Multiple senators — Democrats and a few Republicans — are openly questioning Hegseth’s fitness, with some calling the act a war crime.

Trump publicly stands by Hegseth, but the pattern is familiar: support until it isn’t. Hill investigations ramp, the admiral involved is set to testify, and leaks paint an increasingly untenable leadership environment.

Market Pricing

Scenarios: If congressional hearings escalate into bipartisan consensus that the September strike violated the laws of armed conflict, Hegseth Yes can break toward the mid-40s, especially if Bradley’s testimony contradicts Hegseth’s timeline.

If the White House maintains a unified defense and no new leaks hit ahead of the public IG summary, mean reversion pulls Hegseth back toward the mid-20s.

Trading Takeaway: This is the first true regime-change volatility event in the Cabinet market since early fall — real risk catalysts, real congressional teeth, real reputational drag. Liquidity is solid, spreads are tight, and volatility favors proactive positioning. Hegseth at 31–32¢ still looks underpriced relative to headline risk. Trade: Long Hegseth Yes at 31–32¢.

What’s Happening: Dallas–Detroit hits TNF with both teams in full playoff-survival mode. Detroit sits at 7–5 with home-field urgency and an offense that still hinges on Jahmyr Gibbs’ explosiveness and Jameson Williams’ vertical juice — especially with Amon-Ra St. Brown banged up.

Dallas counters with a three-game heater, a transformed defense since adding Quinnen Williams, and a passing attack that’s sharpened into a Pickens–Lamb problem for any undermanned secondary. It’s playoff atmosphere: Detroit’s playoff odds swing from 42% → 59% with a win… or 22% with a loss; Dallas jumps from 17% → 31% with a win but tumbles to 6% with a loss.

Market Pricing

Scenarios: If Detroit’s run game hits early — Gibbs over 6.0 YPC, Montgomery bruising short yardage — the Lions’ play-action opens up Williams downfield and the Detroit 58¢ line grinds toward the high-60s.

If Dallas generates interior havoc and pushes Goff into 3rd-and-long, Detroit’s offense contracts. Prescott vs. a depleted secondary becomes the pivot, and Dallas’ 42¢ could flip favorite-side by halftime. Amon-Ra St. Brown is not expected to play.

Trading Takeaway: Detroit’s banged-up line and thinning secondary introduce volatility that the Kalshi market is arguably underpricing — Dallas’ pass game has the cleaner matchup. Lean: Dallas Yes 42¢.

1 NFL Week 14 Game: Thursday Night Football sees the Cowboys (41%) visit the Lions (61%). Both teams played on Thanksgiving last Thursday (Cowboys defeated KC, Lions lost to GB).

0 Top 25 Ranked College Basketball Games: The only major conference games take place in the Mountain West and Atlantic 10. Eleven total games listed on Polymarket.

5 NBA games tonight, headlined by Warriors (43%) at Sixers (58%) in Philly. The Warriors lost to the Thunder 124-112 on Tuesday, despite 6 players scoring in double digits. Tyrese Maxey scored 35 points in the Sixers’ win over the Wizards on Tuesday.

10 NHL games on the slate, early games start at 7 pm ET, Chicago Blackhawks (35%) @ Los Angeles Kings (65%) close out the night at 10 pm ET.

$108,395 — Yes at 99¢ for Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? by scout

$11,322 — Nets at 39¢ for Jazz vs. Nets by 0p0joggg

$21,491 — Yes at 94¢ for Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? by gopfan2

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