Kalshi Markets: Diesel Prices, ExxonMobil, EV Commodities

📖 New here? How to read this post

Every day, new prediction markets launch on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade on real-world outcomes. Think of this post as a quick vibe check on what’s new in culture, politics, and the world — when you see markets pop up for the Oscars, a surprise album drop, Saturday Night Live hosts, or the next Fed decision, it tells you something about what people are paying attention to right now.

How to read this: On Kalshi, an event is the big question being asked — for example, “Who will win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?” Each event contains one or more markets, which are the specific yes-or-no outcomes you can actually trade — like “Will 1949 / Fatherland win Best Picture?” at a given price. When an event has numeric thresholds (“Will the S&P 500 close above 5,500?”), those individual levels are called brackets.

For each new event below, we include a link to find it on Kalshi so you can see live pricing. The first thing to do with any new market is understand the rules — then decide if you have an edge.

Here's every new market that launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours (Oct 04 at 8:30 AM ET through Oct 05 at 8:30 AM ET). Our scan picked up 522 unique markets across 227 new events, plus 4,608 recurring bracket markets.

🗳️ Elections

3 events

10 markets

🏛️ Politics

3 events

26 markets

🎬 Entertainment

4 events

46 markets

📊 Economics

4 events

64 markets

🔬 Science and Technology

11 events

79 markets

💹 Financials

202 events

297 markets

⚡ What's Actionable Right Now

The launches from the past 24h with the tightest spreads and live two-sided quotes — i.e. the ones you can actually trade right now.

Diesel prices this week: Above $6.40 bid 8¢ / ask 9¢, Above $6.52 bid 1¢ / ask 5¢, Above $6.50 bid 2¢ / ask 8¢

ExxonMobil Monthly Credit Card Spend in September: Above 118 bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Above 115.5 bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Above 113 bid 3¢ / ask 4¢

Dollar General Credit Card Spend in September: Above 120 bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Above 116 bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Above 112 bid 2¢ / ask 3¢

Costco Credit Card Spend in September: Above 112 bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Above 109 bid 1¢ / ask 4¢, Above 106 bid 2¢ / ask 5¢

Sephora Credit Card Spend in September: Above 124 bid 3¢ / ask 4¢, Above 120 bid 3¢ / ask 4¢, Above 116 bid 4¢ / ask 9¢

EV commodity prices on Oct 5, 2026: Above 1253.75, Above 1243.75, Above 1233.75 all at bid 1¢ / ask 2¢

Home Depot Credit Card Spend in September: Above 120 bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Above 114 bid 3¢ / ask 4¢, Above 117 bid 1¢ / ask 3¢

All Events — every new event from the past 24h, at a glance

🗳️ Elections

🏛️ Politics

📊 Economics

🎬 Entertainment

🔬 Science and Technology

💹 Financials

All New Events

🗳️ Elections — 3 events, 10 markets

Which states will Republicans win a trifecta in 2026? — 7 outcomes — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 1:39 PM ET

View market options (7 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Kansas	bid 65¢ / ask 74¢
Texas	bid 67¢ / ask 76¢
Florida	bid 76¢ / ask 82¢
Georgia	bid 43¢ / ask 53¢
New Hampshire	bid 11¢ / ask 20¢
Iowa	bid 16¢ / ask 25¢
Ohio	bid 41¢ / ask 50¢

Which states will Democrats win a trifecta in 2026? — 2 outcomes — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 1:39 PM ET

View market options (2 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Oregon	bid 68¢ / ask 77¢
Vermont	bid 21¢ / ask 30¢

Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?: John Kennedy (bid 15¢ / ask 22¢) — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 1:45 PM ET

🏛️ Politics — 3 events, 26 markets

Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 5, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET

View market strikes (9 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Below 37.9%	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
38.5%	bid 2¢ / ask 3¢
38.4%	bid 5¢ / ask 7¢
38.3%	bid 68¢ / ask 70¢
38.2%	bid 18¢ / ask 19¢
38.1%	bid 3¢ / ask 6¢
38.0%	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
37.9%	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Above 38.5%	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢

Generic congressional ballot on Oct 5, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET

View market strikes (9 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Below 8.5%	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
9.1%	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
9.0%	bid 1¢ / ask 7¢
8.9%	bid 17¢ / ask 22¢
8.8%	bid 44¢ / ask 51¢
8.7%	bid 17¢ / ask 23¢
8.6%	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
8.5%	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Above 9.1%	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢

Trump Truth Social posts on Oct 5, 2026? — 8 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 04, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

Tracking: <5, 40+, 5-9, 30-39, 25-29, 20-24, 15-19, 10-14

🔗 View on Kalshi →

🎬 Entertainment — 4 events, 46 markets

Runner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Oct 6, 2026 — 15 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 05, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET

Tracking: Yeshanagula | The Paradise | Nani | Keerthy Suresh | Anirudh Ravichander | Srikanth Odela, Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip, Training Season (Live), Todo Lo Fue, Shararat, Radhimaa [From "Think Indie"], Parvati, KALYANI (Remix) [YouTube video 14: z5y8Clp_TdE], KALYANI (Remix) [YouTube video 5: xvT1jH8B9AM], Dame Tu Cosita, Dai Dai, Casa Tupka Anthemo, BbY WOW, Basinga Balaalu, Barsaat

🔗 View on Kalshi →

Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Oct 6, 2026 — 15 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 05, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET

🔗 View on Kalshi →

Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Oct 6, 2026 — 15 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 05, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET

Tracking: WTF GOIN, Todo Lo Fue, KATSEYE (캣츠아이) 'Hootie Frutti' Official MV, KATSEYE (캣츠아이) "Animal" Official MV, Janice STFU, James 1:17 (Jesus Is King) - Kid Rock [Official Music Video}, HOTEL LOBBY (Unc & Phew) (- A COLORS SHOW), Draw You Out (From The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping - The Album), Dai Dai, Choosin' Texas [YouTube video 6: hLOheGDwD_0], Choosin' Texas [YouTube video 2: nUsrYVxrDwI], BbY WOW, Alma Rota, AH HA, 2008

🔗 View on Kalshi →

Grammy Winner: Best New Artist: Tie (bid 1¢ / ask 10¢) — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 10:27 PM ET

📊 Economics — 4 events, 64 markets

Diesel prices this week — 21 brackets — listed Oct 05, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET

View market strikes (21 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above $6.52	bid 1¢ / ask 5¢
Above $6.50	bid 2¢ / ask 8¢
Above $6.48	bid 2¢ / ask 8¢
Above $6.46	bid 2¢ / ask 8¢
Above $6.44	bid 2¢ / ask 8¢
Above $6.42	bid 2¢ / ask 8¢
Above $6.40	bid 8¢ / ask 9¢
Above $6.38	bid 2¢ / ask 9¢
Above $6.36	bid 4¢ / ask 14¢
Above $6.34	bid 7¢ / ask 17¢
Above $6.32	bid 12¢ / ask 22¢
Above $6.30	bid 18¢ / ask 28¢
Above $6.28	bid 26¢ / ask 36¢
Above $6.26	bid 34¢ / ask 44¢
Above $6.24	bid 44¢ / ask 54¢
Above $6.22	bid 53¢ / ask 63¢
Above $6.20	bid 62¢ / ask 72¢
Above $6.18	bid 70¢ / ask 80¢
Above $6.16	bid 77¢ / ask 87¢
Above $6.14	bid 83¢ / ask 93¢
Above $6.12	bid 87¢ / ask 95¢

Diesel prices tomorrow — 21 brackets — listed Oct 05, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET

View market strikes (21 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above $6.370	ask 91¢ (no bids)
Above $6.365	ask 90¢ (no bids)
Above $6.360	—
Above $6.355	—
Above $6.350	—
Above $6.345	—
Above $6.340	—
Above $6.335	—
Above $6.330	—
Above $6.325	bid 10¢ (no asks)
Above $6.320	—
Above $6.315	—
Above $6.310	bid 24¢ / ask 99¢
Above $6.305	—
Above $6.300	bid 46¢ / ask 99¢
Above $6.295	—
Above $6.290	—
Above $6.285	—
Above $6.280	—
Above $6.275	—
Above $6.270	bid 9¢ (no asks)

EV commodity prices on Oct 5, 2026 — 15 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

View market strikes (15 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 1253.75	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Above 1243.75	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Above 1233.75	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Above 1223.75	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Above 1213.75	bid 2¢ / ask 3¢
Above 1203.75	bid 2¢ / ask 14¢
Above 1193.75	bid 19¢ / ask 57¢
Above 1183.75	bid 83¢ / ask 91¢
Above 1173.75	bid 96¢ / ask 98¢
Above 1163.75	bid 97¢ / ask 98¢
Above 1153.75	bid 98¢ / ask 99¢
Above 1143.75	bid 98¢ / ask 99¢
Above 1133.75	bid 98¢ / ask 99¢
Above 1123.75	bid 98¢ (no asks)
Above 1113.75	bid 98¢ (no asks)

US retail jobs added this holiday season — 7 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 1:29 PM ET

View market strikes (7 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 600,000 jobs	bid 10¢ / ask 11¢
Above 550,000 jobs	bid 13¢ / ask 14¢
Above 500,000 jobs	bid 26¢ / ask 27¢
Above 450,000 jobs	bid 50¢ / ask 52¢
Above 400,000 jobs	bid 84¢ / ask 85¢
Above 350,000 jobs	bid 90¢ / ask 91¢
Above 300,000 jobs	bid 92¢ / ask 93¢

🔬 Science and Technology — 11 events, 79 markets

Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 8, 2026 — 9 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET

View market strikes (9 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 74.9%	bid 3¢ / ask 19¢
Above 71.3%	bid 5¢ / ask 22¢
Above 69.7%	bid 10¢ / ask 25¢
Above 68.7%	bid 11¢ / ask 30¢
Above 66.8%	bid 20¢ / ask 44¢
Above 62.2%	bid 31¢ / ask 59¢
Above 58.1%	bid 50¢ / ask 68¢
Above 55.2%	bid 61¢ / ask 75¢
Above 49.2%	bid 71¢ / ask 85¢

Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET

View market strikes (9 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 8.4%	bid 36¢ / ask 70¢
Above 5.3%	bid 73¢ / ask 85¢
Above 3.8%	bid 82¢ / ask 95¢
Above 3.1%	bid 90¢ / ask 98¢
Above 18.4%	bid 5¢ / ask 26¢
Above 16.2%	bid 7¢ / ask 37¢
Above 14.6%	bid 16¢ / ask 47¢
Above 12.3%	bid 23¢ / ask 58¢
Above 10.6%	bid 30¢ / ask 63¢

OpenAI share of spend on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET

View market strikes (9 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 24.6%	bid 5¢ / ask 28¢
Above 22.7%	bid 5¢ / ask 30¢
Above 21.9%	bid 15¢ / ask 35¢
Above 21.3%	bid 20¢ / ask 39¢
Above 20.2%	bid 28¢ / ask 60¢
Above 18.7%	bid 36¢ / ask 73¢
Above 17.2%	bid 51¢ / ask 81¢
Above 16.6%	bid 64¢ / ask 93¢
Above 15.3%	bid 75¢ / ask 92¢

Anthropic share of spend on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET

View market strikes (9 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 40.8%	bid 12¢ / ask 86¢
Above 37.5%	bid 12¢ / ask 90¢
Above 37.1%	bid 8¢ / ask 50¢
Above 35.3%	bid 47¢ / ask 91¢
Above 34.4%	bid 11¢ / ask 89¢
Above 32.5%	bid 14¢ / ask 90¢
Above 31.1%	bid 12¢ / ask 91¢
Above 29.5%	bid 11¢ (no asks)
Above 26.6%	bid 8¢ (no asks)

Google share of requests on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET

View market strikes (9 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 9.9%	bid 84¢ / ask 98¢
Above 17.4%	bid 29¢ / ask 30¢
Above 16.8%	bid 20¢ / ask 40¢
Above 16.2%	bid 25¢ / ask 47¢
Above 15.5%	bid 45¢ / ask 55¢
Above 14.1%	bid 56¢ / ask 75¢
Above 13.1%	bid 70¢ / ask 85¢
Above 12.0%	bid 76¢ / ask 92¢
Above 11.0%	bid 81¢ / ask 95¢

OpenAI share of requests on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET

View market strikes (9 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 29.5%	bid 15¢ / ask 34¢
Above 28.2%	bid 20¢ / ask 40¢
Above 27.7%	bid 30¢ / ask 48¢
Above 26.4%	bid 40¢ / ask 63¢
Above 26.2%	bid 45¢ / ask 63¢
Above 24.9%	bid 55¢ / ask 70¢
Above 24.4%	bid 65¢ / ask 91¢
Above 22.1%	bid 76¢ / ask 93¢
Above 19.3%	bid 81¢ / ask 98¢

Anthropic share of requests on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET

View market strikes (9 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 8.5%	bid 11¢ / ask 84¢
Above 7.7%	bid 8¢ / ask 50¢
Above 7.0%	bid 43¢ / ask 91¢
Above 6.5%	bid 48¢ / ask 91¢
Above 6.2%	bid 52¢ / ask 90¢
Above 6.1%	bid 14¢ / ask 88¢
Above 5.0%	bid 17¢ / ask 89¢
Above 4.5%	bid 17¢ / ask 92¢
Above 4.2%	bid 18¢ / ask 94¢

DeepSeek share of requests on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET

View market strikes (9 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 21.7%	bid 3¢ / ask 19¢
Above 16.5%	bid 17¢ / ask 35¢
Above 15.0%	bid 22¢ / ask 45¢
Above 14.2%	bid 27¢ / ask 54¢
Above 13.4%	bid 37¢ / ask 63¢
Above 12.2%	bid 50¢ / ask 72¢
Above 11.8%	bid 60¢ / ask 77¢
Above 10.9%	bid 70¢ / ask 86¢
Above 10.0%	bid 80¢ / ask 93¢

Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year? — 3 outcomes — listed Oct 05, 2026 at 1:26 AM ET

View market options (3 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Before November 1, 2026	bid 5¢ / ask 79¢
Before January 1, 2027	bid 6¢ / ask 79¢
Before December 1, 2026	bid 6¢ / ask 78¢

Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026? — 3 outcomes — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 8:11 PM ET

View market options (3 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
5 or more	bid 31¢ / ask 53¢
2 or more	bid 24¢ / ask 63¢
1 or more	bid 24¢ / ask 72¢

Will Russia name the pathogen in the Irkutsk pneumonia case in Oct 2026?: Yes (bid 20¢ / ask 28¢) — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 8:11 PM ET

💹 Financials — 202 events, 297 markets

30Y US Treasury yield on Oct 6, 2026? — 15 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 05, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET

🔗 See bracket structure on Kalshi →

10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 6, 2026? — 15 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 05, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET

🔗 See bracket structure on Kalshi →

7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 6, 2026? — 15 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 05, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET

🔗 See bracket structure on Kalshi →

5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 6, 2026? — 15 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 05, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET

🔗 See bracket structure on Kalshi →

2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 6, 2026? — 15 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 05, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET

🔗 See bracket structure on Kalshi →

Amazon Credit Card Spend in September — 6 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 2:01 PM ET

View market strikes (6 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 120	bid 5¢ / ask 8¢
Above 124	bid 4¢ / ask 6¢
Above 128	bid 1¢ / ask 4¢
Above 132	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Above 136	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Above 140	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢

Tesla deliveries in Q1 2027 — 3 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 05, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET

🔗 See bracket structure on Kalshi →

ExxonMobil Monthly Credit Card Spend in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 11:01 PM ET

View market strikes (3 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 113	bid 3¢ / ask 4¢
Above 115.5	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Above 118	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢

Dollar General Credit Card Spend in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 11:01 PM ET

View market strikes (3 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 112	bid 2¢ / ask 3¢
Above 116	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Above 120	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢

Costco Credit Card Spend in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 9:01 PM ET

View market strikes (3 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 106	bid 2¢ / ask 5¢
Above 109	bid 1¢ / ask 4¢
Above 112	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢

Sephora Credit Card Spend in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 8:01 PM ET

View market strikes (3 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 116	bid 4¢ / ask 9¢
Above 120	bid 3¢ / ask 4¢
Above 124	bid 3¢ / ask 4¢

Shake Shack Foot Traffic in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 6:02 PM ET

View market strikes (3 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 100	bid 83¢ / ask 90¢
Above 99	bid 92¢ / ask 98¢
Above 98	bid 97¢ / ask 99¢

Home Depot Credit Card Spend in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 6:01 PM ET

View market strikes (3 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 114	bid 3¢ / ask 4¢
Above 117	bid 1¢ / ask 3¢
Above 120	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢

Dick's Sporting Goods Credit Card Spend in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 6:01 PM ET

View market strikes (3 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 106	bid 2¢ / ask 3¢
Above 110	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Above 114	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢

Abercrombie & Fitch Credit Card Spend in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 5:03 PM ET

View market strikes (3 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 112	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Above 116	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Above 120	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢

Starbucks Credit Card Spend in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 3:01 PM ET

View market strikes (3 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 108	bid 2¢ / ask 4¢
Above 111	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Above 114	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢

USD/JPY Up or Down – 15 minutes: Target price: TBD — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 8:02 PM ET

USD/JPY Up or Down – 15 minutes: Target price: 158.184 (bid 50¢ / ask 54¢) — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 8:02 PM ET

EUR/USD Up or Down – 15 minutes: Target price: TBD — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 8:02 PM ET

EUR/USD Up or Down – 15 minutes: Target price: TBD — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 8:01 PM ET

EUR/USD Up or Down – 15 minutes: Target price: 1.12104 (bid 63¢ / ask 70¢) — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 8:01 PM ET

GBP/USD Up or Down – 15 minutes: Target price: TBD — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 8:01 PM ET

GBP/USD Up or Down – 15 minutes: Target price: TBD — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

GBP/USD Up or Down – 15 minutes: Target price: 1.32235 (bid 56¢ / ask 66¢) — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

🔄 Recurring Markets

4,608 recurring markets also launched — these are auto-generated daily/weekly/hourly brackets (weather, crypto prices, index levels, etc.).

Category	Markets	Series	Top Series
💹 Financials	3,569	7	Nasdaq above/below, S&P 500 above/below, DJI Hourly, +4 more
📊 Economics	584	34	TSA check-ins this week, Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand, Utah gas price, +31 more
🌤️ Climate and Weather	440	65	Where will it rain daily, Where will it rain this weekend?, Hourly Directional Coastal LA Temperature, +62 more
🎬 Entertainment	15	1	DAILY TOP YOUTUBE VIDEO

All data sourced from the Kalshi public API. Prices shown are indicative Yes contract bid/ask at time of publication and may have moved. Trade responsibly.

New Kalshi Markets: Diesel Prices, ExxonMobil Spend, EV Commodity Prices — Past 24 Hours (as of 8:30:32 AM ET, Oct 05)

⚡ What's Actionable Right Now

All Events — every new event from the past 24h, at a glance

All New Events

🗳️ Elections — 3 events, 10 markets

🏛️ Politics — 3 events, 26 markets

🎬 Entertainment — 4 events, 46 markets

📊 Economics — 4 events, 64 markets

🔬 Science and Technology — 11 events, 79 markets

💹 Financials — 202 events, 297 markets

🔄 Recurring Markets

Prediction News Network