📖 New here? How to read this post
Every day, new prediction markets launch on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade on real-world outcomes. Think of this post as a quick vibe check on what’s new in culture, politics, and the world — when you see markets pop up for the Oscars, a surprise album drop, Saturday Night Live hosts, or the next Fed decision, it tells you something about what people are paying attention to right now.
How to read this: On Kalshi, an event is the big question being asked — for example, “Who will win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?” Each event contains one or more markets, which are the specific yes-or-no outcomes you can actually trade — like “Will 1949 / Fatherland win Best Picture?” at a given price. When an event has numeric thresholds (“Will the S&P 500 close above 5,500?”), those individual levels are called brackets.
For each new event below, we include a link to find it on Kalshi so you can see live pricing. The first thing to do with any new market is understand the rules — then decide if you have an edge.
Here's every new market that launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours (Oct 03 at 8:30 AM ET through Oct 04 at 8:30 AM ET). Our scan picked up 149 unique markets across 14 new events, plus 951 recurring bracket markets.
⚡ What's Actionable Right Now
The launches from the past 24h with the tightest spreads and live two-sided quotes — i.e. the ones you can actually trade right now.
Diesel prices tomorrow: Above $6.390 bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Above $6.355 bid 1¢ / ask 3¢, Above $6.350 bid 4¢ / ask 6¢
Amusement Parks Ad Spend in September: Above 145, Above 143, Above 141 all at bid 98¢ / ask 99¢
C4 Energy Point of Sale Growth in October: Above 132 bid 9¢ / ask 10¢, Above 128 bid 12¢ / ask 18¢, Above 124 bid 30¢ / ask 36¢
Celsius Point of Sale Growth in October: Above 103 bid 8¢ / ask 9¢, Above 107 bid 2¢ / ask 6¢, Above 99 bid 15¢ / ask 19¢
Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 4, 2026?: Below 37.9%, 38.3%, 38.0% all at bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Generic congressional ballot on Oct 4, 2026?: Below 8.5% bid 2¢ / ask 5¢, 8.6% bid 3¢ / ask 6¢, 8.5% bid 2¢ / ask 6¢
Footwear Retail Ad Spend in September: Above 80 bid 2¢ / ask 6¢, Above 82 bid 2¢ / ask 6¢, Above 74 bid 56¢ / ask 75¢
All Events — every new event from the past 24h, at a glance
- Runner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Oct 5, 2026
- Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Oct 5, 2026
- Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Oct 5, 2026
- Generic congressional ballot on Oct 4, 2026?
- Trump Truth Social posts on Oct 4, 2026?
- Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 4, 2026?
All New Events
📊 Economics — 1 event, 21 markets
Diesel prices tomorrow — 21 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET
View market strikes (21 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above $6.395 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.390 | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Above $6.385 | ask 94¢ (no bids) |
| Above $6.380 | ask 90¢ (no bids) |
| Above $6.375 | ask 93¢ (no bids) |
| Above $6.370 | ask 92¢ (no bids) |
| Above $6.365 | ask 92¢ (no bids) |
| Above $6.360 | ask 90¢ (no bids) |
| Above $6.355 | bid 1¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Above $6.350 | bid 4¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above $6.345 | bid 8¢ / ask 10¢ |
| Above $6.340 | bid 12¢ / ask 16¢ |
| Above $6.335 | bid 19¢ / ask 23¢ |
| Above $6.330 | bid 36¢ / ask 40¢ |
| Above $6.325 | bid 58¢ / ask 62¢ |
| Above $6.320 | bid 81¢ / ask 85¢ |
| Above $6.315 | bid 94¢ / ask 96¢ |
| Above $6.310 | bid 10¢ (no asks) |
| Above $6.305 | bid 10¢ (no asks) |
| Above $6.300 | bid 21¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above $6.295 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
🔬 Science and Technology — 1 event, 33 markets
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? — 33 outcomes — listed Oct 03, 2026 at 11:43 AM ET
View market options (25 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Z AI | last 99¢ (book empty) |
| Xiaomi | — |
| xAI | — |
| Upstage | — |
| Thinking Machines | — |
| Tencent | — |
| StepFun | — |
| Safe Superintelligence | — |
| Reflection AI | — |
| Prime Intellect | — |
| OpenAI | — |
| NVIDIA | — |
| Mistral | — |
| Microsoft | — |
| Moonshot | — |
| MiniMax | — |
| Meta | — |
| LongCat | — |
| LG AI Research | — |
| Inception | — |
| InclusionAI | — |
| Institute of Foundation Models | — |
| Huawei | — |
| — | |
| Essential AI | — |
+ 8 more outcomes
🏛️ Politics — 3 events, 26 markets
Generic congressional ballot on Oct 4, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Oct 03, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Below 8.5% | bid 2¢ / ask 5¢ |
| 9.1% | bid 2¢ / ask 15¢ |
| 9.0% | bid 2¢ / ask 29¢ |
| 8.9% | bid 2¢ / ask 28¢ |
| 8.8% | bid 54¢ / ask 74¢ |
| 8.7% | bid 10¢ / ask 49¢ |
| 8.6% | bid 3¢ / ask 6¢ |
| 8.5% | bid 2¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above 9.1% | bid 2¢ / ask 10¢ |
Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 4, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Oct 03, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Below 37.9% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| 38.5% | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| 38.4% | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| 38.3% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| 38.2% | bid 83¢ / ask 85¢ |
| 38.1% | bid 13¢ / ask 16¢ |
| 38.0% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| 37.9% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Above 38.5% | last 1¢ (book empty) |
Trump Truth Social posts on Oct 4, 2026? — 8 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 03, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
Tracking: <5, 40+, 5-9, 30-39, 25-29, 20-24, 15-19, 10-14
🎬 Entertainment — 3 events, 45 markets
Runner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Oct 5, 2026 — 15 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 04, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET
Tracking: Yeshanagula | The Paradise | Nani | Keerthy Suresh | Anirudh Ravichander | Srikanth Odela, Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip, Training Season (Live), Shararat, Radhimaa [From "Think Indie"], Parvati, KALYANI (Remix) [YouTube video 12: z5y8Clp_TdE], KALYANI (Remix) [YouTube video 6: xvT1jH8B9AM], Dai Dai, Casa Tupka Anthemo, BbY WOW, Basinga Balaalu, Barsaat, Ashke (Music Video) Karan Aujla | Mxrci | Aujla Szn 1, Aaya Sher
Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Oct 5, 2026 — 15 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 04, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET
Tracking: Yeshanagula | The Paradise | Nani | Keerthy Suresh | Anirudh Ravichander | Srikanth Odela, Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip, Training Season (Live), Shararat, Radhimaa [From "Think Indie"], Parvati, KALYANI (Remix) [YouTube video 12: z5y8Clp_TdE], KALYANI (Remix) [YouTube video 6: xvT1jH8B9AM], Dai Dai, Casa Tupka Anthemo, BbY WOW, Basinga Balaalu, Barsaat, Ashke (Music Video) Karan Aujla | Mxrci | Aujla Szn 1, Aaya Sher
Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Oct 5, 2026 — 15 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 04, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET
Tracking: WTF GOIN, Ricardo Arjona y Grupo Firme - Amor Factura (Video Oficial) @ArjonaOficial @GrupoFirmeOficial, Music Teacher Asks if I Know Fleetwood Mac and Her Voice Shocks The Airport, Menor, Janice STFU, James 1:17 (Jesus Is King) - Kid Rock [Official Music Video}, HOTEL LOBBY (Unc & Phew) (- A COLORS SHOW), Draw You Out (From The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping - The Album), Dexter and The Moonrocks - Why Don’t You Say So (feat. Avery Anna) (Official Music Video), Dai Dai, Choosin' Texas [YouTube video 10: hLOheGDwD_0], Choosin' Texas [YouTube video 4: nUsrYVxrDwI], BbY WOW, Alma Rota, 2008
💹 Financials — 6 events, 24 markets
Footwear Retail Ad Spend in September — 6 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 1:01 AM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 82 | bid 2¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above 80 | bid 2¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above 78 | bid 19¢ / ask 65¢ |
| Above 76 | bid 17¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Above 74 | bid 56¢ / ask 75¢ |
| Above 72 | bid 33¢ / ask 96¢ |
Amusement Parks Ad Spend in September — 6 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 12:01 AM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 135 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 137 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 139 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 141 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 143 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 145 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
Sporting Goods Ad Spend in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 12:01 AM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 122 | bid 2¢ / ask 31¢ |
| Above 124 | bid 2¢ / ask 18¢ |
| Above 126 | bid 2¢ / ask 15¢ |
Casino Ad Spend in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 03, 2026 at 6:01 PM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 70 | bid 71¢ / ask 89¢ |
| Above 69 | bid 84¢ / ask 94¢ |
| Above 68 | bid 78¢ / ask 92¢ |
C4 Energy Point of Sale Growth in October — 3 brackets — listed Oct 03, 2026 at 6:01 PM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 124 | bid 30¢ / ask 36¢ |
| Above 128 | bid 12¢ / ask 18¢ |
| Above 132 | bid 9¢ / ask 10¢ |
Celsius Point of Sale Growth in October — 3 brackets — listed Oct 03, 2026 at 5:01 PM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 99 | bid 15¢ / ask 19¢ |
| Above 103 | bid 8¢ / ask 9¢ |
| Above 107 | bid 2¢ / ask 6¢ |
🔄 Recurring Markets
951 recurring markets also launched — these are auto-generated daily/weekly/hourly brackets (weather, crypto prices, index levels, etc.).
| Category | Markets | Series | Top Series |
|---|---|---|---|
| 📊 Economics | 570 | 34 | Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand, Utah gas price, New Mexico gas price, +31 more |
| 🌤️ Climate and Weather | 366 | 54 | Where will it rain daily, Hourly Directional Coastal LA Temperature, Hourly Directional Chicago Metro Temperature, +51 more |
| 🎬 Entertainment | 15 | 1 | DAILY TOP YOUTUBE VIDEO |
All data sourced from the Kalshi public API. Prices shown are indicative Yes contract bid/ask at time of publication and may have moved. Trade responsibly.