📖 New here? How to read this post
Every day, new prediction markets launch on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade on real-world outcomes. Think of this post as a quick vibe check on what’s new in culture, politics, and the world — when you see markets pop up for the Oscars, a surprise album drop, Saturday Night Live hosts, or the next Fed decision, it tells you something about what people are paying attention to right now.
How to read this: On Kalshi, an event is the big question being asked — for example, “Who will win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?” Each event contains one or more markets, which are the specific yes-or-no outcomes you can actually trade — like “Will 1949 / Fatherland win Best Picture?” at a given price. When an event has numeric thresholds (“Will the S&P 500 close above 5,500?”), those individual levels are called brackets.
For each new event below, we include a link to find it on Kalshi so you can see live pricing. The first thing to do with any new market is understand the rules — then decide if you have an edge.
Here's every new market that launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours (May 21 at 8:30 AM ET through May 22 at 8:30 AM ET). Our scan picked up 232 unique markets across 39 new events, plus 548 recurring bracket markets.
⚡ What's Actionable Right Now
The launches from the past 24h with the tightest spreads and live two-sided quotes — i.e. the ones you can actually trade right now.
EV commodity prices on May 22, 2026: Above 1309.32 bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Above 1289.32 bid 8¢ / ask 9¢, Above 1269.32 bid 37¢ / ask 38¢
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. passengers carried in Q2 2026: Above 915 thousand bid 24¢ / ask 25¢, Above 900 thousand bid 29¢ / ask 30¢, Above 885 thousand bid 38¢ / ask 39¢
Urban Outfitters Inc. total urbn stores in Q2 2027: Above 808 bid 76¢ / ask 77¢, Above 806 bid 89¢ / ask 90¢, Above 810 bid 24¢ / ask 87¢
Toll Brothers Inc. deliveries in Q3 2026: Above 3100 bid 8¢ / ask 9¢, Above 2600 bid 61¢ / ask 90¢, Above 2900 bid 13¢ / ask 48¢
Marriott International total rooms in Q2 2026: Above 1.825 million bid 23¢ / ask 24¢, Above 1.805 million bid 55¢ / ask 89¢, Above 1.81 million bid 16¢ / ask 92¢
Meta headcount in Q2: Above 78500 bid 3¢ / ask 4¢, Above 78000 bid 4¢ / ask 5¢, Above 77000 bid 11¢ / ask 12¢
Who will attend Game 2: Cavaliers vs Knicks?: Kylie Jenner bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Jaxson Dart bid 2¢ / ask 42¢, Cameron Skattebo bid 2¢ / ask 50¢
All Events — every new event from the past 24h, at a glance
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- EV commodity prices on May 22, 2026
- Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026
- Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026
- US building permits for May
- US housing starts for May
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?
- When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?
- Who will attend Game 2: Cavaliers vs Knicks?
- Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026?
- Will legislation restricting institutional single-family home investment become law?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Daegu Mayoral Election Winner
- Dublin Central by-election winner?
- Indiana Republican Secretary of State nominee?
- Peru presidential election runoff margin of victory?
- Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)
- Will Nauru be renamed to Naoero?
- CAVA Group Inc. cava restaurants in Q2 2026
- Costco total cardholders in Q3
- Ferrari N.V. total number of car shipments in Q2 2026
- Futu total funded accounts in Q1
- Hims & Hers subscribers in Q2
- Home Depot Inc. customer transactions in Q2 2026
- Marriott International total rooms in Q2 2026
- Meta headcount in Q2
- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. passengers carried in Q2 2026
- Reddit daily active uniques in Q2
- Roblox Corporation hours engaged in Q2 2026
- Spotify monthly active users in Q2
- Target Corporation transactions change in Q2 2026
- Toll Brothers Inc. deliveries in Q3 2026
- Urban Outfitters Inc. total urbn stores in Q2 2027
- Vail Resorts skier visits in Q3
- Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc. total rooms in Q2 2026
All New Events
🎬 Entertainment — 2 events, 3 markets
TIME's Person of the Year for 2026? — 2 outcomes — listed May 21, 2026 at 6:13 PM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Péter Magyar | ask 18¢ (no bids) |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | ask 13¢ (no bids) |
Cannes Award for Best performance by an actor?: Adam Driver (ask 6¢ (no bids)) — listed May 21, 2026 at 2:50 PM ET
🔬 Science and Technology — 2 events, 8 markets
What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term? — 5 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 12:50 PM ET
View market strikes (5 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| At least 2500 | bid 56¢ / ask 73¢ |
| At least 3000 | bid 49¢ / ask 66¢ |
| At least 3500 | bid 39¢ / ask 57¢ |
| At least 4000 | bid 32¢ / ask 50¢ |
| At least 4500 | bid 26¢ / ask 44¢ |
Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026? — 3 outcomes — listed May 21, 2026 at 1:55 PM ET
View market options (3 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Ethiopia | bid 7¢ / ask 20¢ |
| Nigeria | bid 17¢ / ask 24¢ |
| Somalia | bid 22¢ / ask 89¢ |
📊 Economics — 5 events, 60 markets
Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026 — 15 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · May 22, 2026 at 8:03 AM ET
Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 — 15 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · May 22, 2026 at 8:03 AM ET
EV commodity prices on May 22, 2026 — 15 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 8:01 PM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 1329.32 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1319.32 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1309.32 | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Above 1299.32 | bid 5¢ / ask 7¢ |
| Above 1289.32 | bid 8¢ / ask 9¢ |
| Above 1279.32 | bid 24¢ / ask 27¢ |
| Above 1269.32 | bid 37¢ / ask 38¢ |
| Above 1259.32 | bid 66¢ / ask 69¢ |
| Above 1249.32 | bid 96¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above 1239.32 | bid 96¢ / ask 97¢ |
| Above 1229.32 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1219.32 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1209.32 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1199.32 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1189.32 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
US housing starts for May — 8 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 2:05 PM ET
View market strikes (8 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 1.550M | bid 4¢ / ask 7¢ |
| Above 1.525M | bid 6¢ / ask 7¢ |
| Above 1.500M | bid 18¢ / ask 19¢ |
| Above 1.475M | bid 7¢ / ask 59¢ |
| Above 1.450M | bid 30¢ / ask 57¢ |
| Above 1.425M | bid 69¢ / ask 70¢ |
| Above 1.400M | bid 64¢ / ask 76¢ |
| Above 1.375M | bid 63¢ / ask 91¢ |
US building permits for May — 7 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 5:09 PM ET
View market strikes (7 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 1.550M | bid 8¢ / ask 9¢ |
| Above 1.500M | bid 19¢ / ask 22¢ |
| Above 1.450M | bid 38¢ / ask 40¢ |
| Above 1.400M | bid 68¢ / ask 72¢ |
| Above 1.350M | bid 88¢ / ask 89¢ |
| Above 1.300M | bid 91¢ / ask 92¢ |
| Above 1.250M | bid 95¢ / ask 96¢ |
🏛️ Politics — 6 events, 24 markets
Who will attend Game 2: Cavaliers vs Knicks? — 14 outcomes — listed May 21, 2026 at 5:21 PM ET
View market options (14 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Tracy Morgan | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Tina Fey | bid 1¢ / ask 75¢ |
| Timothée Chalamet | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Spike Lee | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Kylie Jenner | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Jimmy Fallon | bid 2¢ / ask 76¢ |
| Jay-Z | ask 25¢ (no bids) |
| Jaxson Dart | bid 2¢ / ask 42¢ |
| Fat Joe | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Cardi B | bid 2¢ / ask 78¢ |
| Cameron Skattebo | bid 2¢ / ask 50¢ |
| Ben Stiller | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Anne Hathaway | last 1¢ (book empty) |
US-Iran nuclear deal? — 3 outcomes — listed May 21, 2026 at 10:16 AM ET
View market options (3 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Before October | bid 33¢ / ask 64¢ |
| Before November | bid 28¢ / ask 60¢ |
| Before December | bid 3¢ / ask 78¢ |
When will the House pass a reconciliation bill? — 2 outcomes — listed May 21, 2026 at 3:24 PM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Before Jun 3, 2026 | bid 2¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Before Jun 6, 2026 | bid 24¢ / ask 26¢ |
When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate? — 2 outcomes — listed May 21, 2026 at 3:22 PM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Before Jun 3, 2026 | bid 3¢ / ask 8¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | bid 75¢ / ask 81¢ |
Will legislation restricting institutional single-family home investment become law? — 2 outcomes — listed May 21, 2026 at 11:43 AM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | — |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | bid 5¢ / ask 64¢ |
Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026?: Lai Ching-te (bid 22¢ / ask 28¢) — listed May 21, 2026 at 11:55 AM ET
🗳️ Elections — 7 events, 53 markets
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes) — 33 outcomes — listed May 21, 2026 at 12:10 PM ET
View market options (25 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Wes Moore | — |
| Stephen A. Smith | — |
| Raphael Warnock | — |
| Ro Khanna | — |
| Ruben Gallego | — |
| Rahm Emanuel | bid 5¢ (no asks) |
| Roy Cooper | — |
| Pete Buttigieg | — |
| Michelle Obama | — |
| Mitch Landrieu | — |
| Mark Kelly | — |
| Mark Cuban | — |
| Kamala Harris | — |
| James Talarico | — |
| Jon Stewart | — |
| Josh Shapiro | — |
| J.B. Pritzker | — |
| Jared Polis | — |
| Jon Ossoff | ask 92¢ (no bids) |
| Jasmine Crockett | — |
| Gretchen Whitmer | — |
| Gina Raimondo | — |
| Graham Platner | — |
| Gavin Newsom | — |
| Elizabeth Warren | — |
+ 8 more outcomes
Peru presidential election runoff margin of victory? — 10 outcomes — listed May 21, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET
View market options (10 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Roberto Sánchez, 6-9% | bid 3¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Roberto Sánchez, ≥12% | bid 3¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Roberto Sánchez, 3-6% | bid 4¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Roberto Sánchez, 9-12% | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Roberto Sánchez, 0-3% | bid 17¢ / ask 18¢ |
| Keiko Fujimori, 9-12% | bid 4¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Keiko Fujimori, 6-9% | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Keiko Fujimori, ≥12% | bid 3¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Keiko Fujimori, 3-6% | bid 20¢ / ask 21¢ |
| Keiko Fujimori, 0-3% | bid 44¢ / ask 49¢ |
Dublin Central by-election winner? — 5 outcomes — listed May 21, 2026 at 11:58 AM ET
View market options (5 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Ray McAdam | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Malachy Steenson | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Janice Boylan | bid 16¢ / ask 17¢ |
| Gerry Hutch | bid 4¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Daniel Ennis | bid 74¢ / ask 75¢ |
Daegu Mayoral Election Winner — 2 outcomes — listed May 21, 2026 at 11:59 AM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Kim Boo-kyum | bid 20¢ / ask 21¢ |
| Choo Kyung-ho | bid 79¢ / ask 80¢ |
Indiana Republican Secretary of State nominee?: Max Engling (bid 82¢ / ask 86¢) — listed May 21, 2026 at 3:19 PM ET
Will Nauru be renamed to Naoero?: YES (bid 84¢ / ask 85¢) — listed May 21, 2026 at 12:16 PM ET
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Thomas Massie (bid 1¢ / ask 2¢) — listed May 21, 2026 at 10:34 AM ET
💹 Financials — 17 events, 84 markets
Urban Outfitters Inc. total urbn stores in Q2 2027 — 7 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 7:57 PM ET
View market strikes (7 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 818 | bid 6¢ (no asks) |
| Above 816 | bid 12¢ / ask 92¢ |
| Above 814 | bid 10¢ (no asks) |
| Above 812 | bid 12¢ (no asks) |
| Above 810 | bid 24¢ / ask 87¢ |
| Above 808 | bid 76¢ / ask 77¢ |
| Above 806 | bid 89¢ / ask 90¢ |
Home Depot Inc. customer transactions in Q2 2026 — 7 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 7:57 PM ET
View market strikes (7 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 450 million | bid 8¢ (no asks) |
| Above 440 million | bid 9¢ (no asks) |
| Above 430 million | bid 12¢ (no asks) |
| Above 420 million | bid 30¢ / ask 97¢ |
| Above 410 million | bid 51¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above 400 million | bid 55¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above 390 million | bid 65¢ / ask 95¢ |
Target Corporation transactions change in Q2 2026 — 7 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 7:57 PM ET
View market strikes (7 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 5% | bid 20¢ / ask 25¢ |
| Above 4.5% | bid 9¢ / ask 62¢ |
| Above 4% | bid 8¢ / ask 72¢ |
| Above 3.5% | bid 9¢ / ask 76¢ |
| Above 3% | bid 12¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Above 2.5% | bid 17¢ / ask 84¢ |
| Above 2% | bid 22¢ / ask 88¢ |
Roblox Corporation hours engaged in Q2 2026 — 7 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 7:56 PM ET
View market strikes (7 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 38 billion | bid 6¢ / ask 10¢ |
| Above 37 billion | bid 10¢ / ask 20¢ |
| Above 36 billion | bid 33¢ / ask 35¢ |
| Above 35 billion | bid 12¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Above 34 billion | bid 44¢ / ask 73¢ |
| Above 33 billion | bid 11¢ / ask 91¢ |
| Above 32 billion | bid 23¢ / ask 92¢ |
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. passengers carried in Q2 2026 — 6 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 7:57 PM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 915 thousand | bid 24¢ / ask 25¢ |
| Above 900 thousand | bid 29¢ / ask 30¢ |
| Above 885 thousand | bid 38¢ / ask 39¢ |
| Above 870 thousand | bid 49¢ / ask 64¢ |
| Above 855 thousand | bid 45¢ / ask 85¢ |
| Above 840 thousand | bid 86¢ / ask 87¢ |
Toll Brothers Inc. deliveries in Q3 2026 — 6 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 7:57 PM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 3100 | bid 8¢ / ask 9¢ |
| Above 3000 | bid 10¢ / ask 48¢ |
| Above 2900 | bid 13¢ / ask 48¢ |
| Above 2800 | bid 15¢ / ask 72¢ |
| Above 2700 | bid 19¢ / ask 69¢ |
| Above 2600 | bid 61¢ / ask 90¢ |
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc. total rooms in Q2 2026 — 6 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 7:56 PM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 885 thousand | bid 36¢ / ask 59¢ |
| Above 882 thousand | bid 61¢ / ask 65¢ |
| Above 879 thousand | bid 13¢ / ask 89¢ |
| Above 876 thousand | bid 15¢ / ask 92¢ |
| Above 873 thousand | bid 22¢ / ask 94¢ |
| Above 870 thousand | bid 65¢ / ask 93¢ |
Ferrari N.V. total number of car shipments in Q2 2026 — 6 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 7:56 PM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 3550 | bid 39¢ / ask 48¢ |
| Above 3500 | bid 30¢ / ask 39¢ |
| Above 3450 | bid 10¢ (no asks) |
| Above 3400 | bid 29¢ / ask 92¢ |
| Above 3350 | bid 29¢ / ask 94¢ |
| Above 3300 | bid 49¢ / ask 92¢ |
Meta headcount in Q2 — 6 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 6:15 PM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 78500 | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Above 78000 | bid 4¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Above 77500 | bid 8¢ / ask 10¢ |
| Above 77000 | bid 11¢ / ask 12¢ |
| Above 76500 | bid 18¢ / ask 19¢ |
| Above 76000 | bid 24¢ / ask 93¢ |
Spotify monthly active users in Q2 — 6 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 5:08 PM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 776 million | bid 89¢ (no asks) |
| Above 777 million | bid 83¢ (no asks) |
| Above 778 million | bid 51¢ / ask 97¢ |
| Above 779 million | bid 39¢ / ask 96¢ |
| Above 781 million | bid 10¢ (no asks) |
| Above 782 million | last 16¢ (book empty) |
CAVA Group Inc. cava restaurants in Q2 2026 — 5 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 7:56 PM ET
View market strikes (5 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 490 | bid 6¢ (no asks) |
| Above 485 | bid 8¢ (no asks) |
| Above 480 | bid 18¢ / ask 94¢ |
| Above 475 | bid 61¢ / ask 94¢ |
| Above 470 | bid 67¢ / ask 94¢ |
Marriott International total rooms in Q2 2026 — 5 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 7:56 PM ET
View market strikes (5 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 1.825 million | bid 23¢ / ask 24¢ |
| Above 1.82 million | bid 11¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1.815 million | bid 13¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1.81 million | bid 16¢ / ask 92¢ |
| Above 1.805 million | bid 55¢ / ask 89¢ |
Vail Resorts skier visits in Q3 — 4 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 4:14 PM ET
View market strikes (4 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 7.0 million | bid 80¢ / ask 87¢ |
| Above 7.1 million | bid 75¢ / ask 81¢ |
| Above 7.3 million | bid 26¢ / ask 33¢ |
| Above 7.4 million | bid 11¢ / ask 18¢ |
Hims & Hers subscribers in Q2 — 3 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 4:56 PM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 2.76 million | bid 90¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above 2.80 million | bid 83¢ / ask 89¢ |
| Above 2.84 million | bid 75¢ / ask 80¢ |
Costco total cardholders in Q3: Above 148.5 million (bid 59¢ / ask 64¢) — listed May 21, 2026 at 5:05 PM ET
Futu total funded accounts in Q1: Above 3625 thousand (bid 25¢ / ask 31¢) — listed May 21, 2026 at 5:02 PM ET
Reddit daily active uniques in Q2: Above 131.5 million (bid 40¢ / ask 46¢) — listed May 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
🔄 Recurring Markets
548 recurring markets also launched — these are auto-generated daily/weekly/hourly brackets (weather, crypto prices, index levels, etc.).
| Category | Markets | Series | Top Series |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🌤️ Climate and Weather | 289 | 42 | Hourly Directional NYC Temperature, Low Temperature Oklahoma City, Low Temperature Houston, +39 more |
| 📊 Economics | 120 | 10 | Germany Ifo Business Climate, Truflation AI & DePIN Index, Number of Airport Passenger Screened, +7 more |
| 💹 Financials | 75 | 3 | S&P 500 range, Nasdaq range, Treasury 10Y weekly yield |
| 🎬 Entertainment | 63 | 4 | Daily Global Spotify songs, Daily US Spotify chart Runner-up, Daily US Spotify chart, +1 more |
| 🏛️ Politics | 1 | 1 | Who will Trump meet? |
All data sourced from the Kalshi public API. Prices shown are indicative Yes contract bid/ask at time of publication and may have moved. Trade responsibly.