📖 New here? How to read this post
Every day, new prediction markets launch on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade on real-world outcomes. Think of this post as a quick vibe check on what’s new in culture, politics, and the world — when you see markets pop up for the Oscars, a surprise album drop, Saturday Night Live hosts, or the next Fed decision, it tells you something about what people are paying attention to right now.
How to read this: On Kalshi, an event is the big question being asked — for example, “Who will win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?” Each event contains one or more markets, which are the specific yes-or-no outcomes you can actually trade — like “Will 1949 / Fatherland win Best Picture?” at a given price. When an event has numeric thresholds (“Will the S&P 500 close above 5,500?”), those individual levels are called brackets.
For each new event below, we include a link to find it on Kalshi so you can see live pricing. The first thing to do with any new market is understand the rules — then decide if you have an edge.
Here's every new market that launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours (Jul 05 at 6:30 PM ET through Jul 06 at 6:30 PM ET). Our scan picked up 137 unique markets across 18 new events, plus 1,343 recurring bracket markets.
⚡ What's Actionable Right Now
The launches from the past 24h with the tightest spreads and live two-sided quotes — i.e. the ones you can actually trade right now.
Will Graham Platner drop out?: Before Jul 11, 2026 bid 92¢ / ask 92¢, Before Jul 10, 2026 bid 89¢ / ask 90¢, Before Jul 9, 2026 bid 85¢ / ask 86¢
Maine Senate winner? (Person): Dan Kleban bid 1¢ / ask 1¢, Graham Platner bid 2¢ / ask 2¢, Patrick Dempsey bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?: Valli Geiger, Sara Gideon, Patrick Dempsey all at bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/6 - 7/12): Above 275 bid 14¢ / ask 15¢, Above 250 bid 25¢ / ask 26¢, Above 200 bid 49¢ / ask 50¢
Love Island UK Week 6: Elimination: Yasmine bid 35¢ / ask 36¢, Sean bid 6¢ / ask 7¢, Samraj bid 11¢ / ask 12¢
Best AI this week: ChatGPT bid 3¢ / ask 4¢, Gemini bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Claude bid 96¢ / ask 97¢
Top Coding AI this week: GLM bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Gemini bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Claude bid 95¢ / ask 96¢
All Events — every new event from the past 24h, at a glance
- Fear & Greed Index on Jul 10, 2026?
- Fear & Greed Index on Jul 17, 2026?
- Fear & Greed Index on Jul 24, 2026?
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Up/Down
All New Events
📊 Economics — 1 event, 12 markets
Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026? — 12 outcomes — listed Jul 06, 2026 at 5:07 PM ET
View market options (12 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Valli Geiger | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Troy Jackson | bid 56¢ / ask 59¢ |
| Sara Gideon | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Shenna Bellows | bid 12¢ / ask 18¢ |
| Patrick Dempsey | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Nirav Shah | bid 16¢ / ask 18¢ |
| No one | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Mattie Daughtrey | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Janet Mills | bid 9¢ / ask 10¢ |
| Graham Platner | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Dan Kleban | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Brian Bryant | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
🏛️ Politics — 2 events, 16 markets
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/6 - 7/12) — 9 brackets — listed Jul 06, 2026 at 1:01 PM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 300 | bid 5¢ / ask 8¢ |
| Above 275 | bid 14¢ / ask 15¢ |
| Above 250 | bid 25¢ / ask 26¢ |
| Above 225 | bid 34¢ / ask 36¢ |
| Above 200 | bid 49¢ / ask 50¢ |
| Above 175 | bid 71¢ / ask 73¢ |
| Above 150 | bid 84¢ / ask 86¢ |
| Above 125 | bid 85¢ / ask 86¢ |
| Above 100 | bid 96¢ / ask 98¢ |
Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic (7/6 - 7/12) — 7 outcomes — listed Jul 06, 2026 at 1:12 PM ET
View market options (7 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| July 12 | bid 15¢ / ask 17¢ |
| July 11 | bid 15¢ / ask 17¢ |
| July 10 | bid 17¢ / ask 19¢ |
| July 9 | bid 14¢ / ask 16¢ |
| July 8 | bid 12¢ / ask 14¢ |
| July 7 | bid 12¢ / ask 14¢ |
| July 6 | bid 9¢ / ask 11¢ |
🗳️ Elections — 2 events, 18 markets
Maine Senate winner? (Person) — 13 outcomes — listed Jul 06, 2026 at 1:44 PM ET
View market options (13 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Troy Jackson | bid 33¢ / ask 34¢ |
| Susan Collins | bid 37¢ / ask 38¢ |
| Nirav Shah | bid 20¢ / ask 27¢ |
| Janet Mills | bid 4¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Graham Platner | bid 2¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Patrick Dempsey | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Valli Geiger | — |
| Brian Bryant | — |
| Shenna Bellows | bid 6¢ / ask 9¢ |
| Dan Kleban | bid 1¢ / ask 1¢ |
| Mattie Daughtrey | — |
| Sara Gideon | — |
| Stephen King | — |
Will Graham Platner drop out? — 5 outcomes — listed Jul 06, 2026 at 1:12 PM ET
View market options (5 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Before Jul 8, 2026 | bid 65¢ / ask 66¢ |
| Before Jul 7, 2026 | bid 18¢ / ask 19¢ |
| Before Jul 9, 2026 | bid 85¢ / ask 86¢ |
| Before Jul 10, 2026 | bid 89¢ / ask 90¢ |
| Before Jul 11, 2026 | bid 92¢ / ask 92¢ |
🔬 Science and Technology — 3 events, 18 markets
Top Coding AI this week — 9 outcomes — listed Jul 06, 2026 at 10:39 AM ET
View market options (9 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Qwen | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| MiniMax | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Kimi | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Grok | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| GLM | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Gemini | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Dola | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Claude | bid 95¢ / ask 96¢ |
| ChatGPT | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
Best AI this week — 8 outcomes — listed Jul 06, 2026 at 10:39 AM ET
View market options (8 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Grok | last 2¢ (book empty) |
| ChatGPT | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Muse | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Gemini | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Dola | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Claude | bid 96¢ / ask 97¢ |
| Amazon Nova | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Qwen | last 2¢ (book empty) |
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 150 (bid 44¢ / ask 50¢) — listed Jul 06, 2026 at 9:35 AM ET
💹 Financials — 4 events, 16 markets
Fear & Greed Index on Jul 24, 2026? — 5 outcomes — listed Jul 06, 2026 at 8:42 AM ET
View market options (5 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Extreme Greed | bid 7¢ / ask 8¢ |
| Extreme Fear | bid 18¢ / ask 19¢ |
| Neutral | bid 20¢ / ask 21¢ |
| Greed | bid 19¢ / ask 20¢ |
| Fear | bid 35¢ / ask 36¢ |
Fear & Greed Index on Jul 17, 2026? — 5 outcomes — listed Jul 06, 2026 at 8:42 AM ET
View market options (5 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Extreme Greed | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Extreme Fear | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Neutral | bid 28¢ / ask 30¢ |
| Greed | bid 23¢ / ask 24¢ |
| Fear | bid 37¢ / ask 39¢ |
Fear & Greed Index on Jul 10, 2026? — 5 outcomes — listed Jul 06, 2026 at 8:42 AM ET
View market options (5 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Extreme Greed | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Extreme Fear | bid 7¢ / ask 8¢ |
| Neutral | bid 28¢ / ask 29¢ |
| Greed | bid 17¢ / ask 18¢ |
| Fear | bid 39¢ / ask 40¢ |
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Up/Down: Above 101.0780 — listed Jul 06, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
🎬 Entertainment — 6 events, 57 markets
Love Island UK: Monday Elimination — 21 outcomes — listed Jul 06, 2026 at 12:38 PM ET
View market options (21 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Yasmine | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Tommy | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Simba | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Sean | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Samraj | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Priya | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| NONE | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Mica | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Martha | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Mara | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Lorenzo | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Lola | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Kavan | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Julia | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Jordon | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Jasmine | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Finley | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Ellie | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Charleen | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Angelista | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Aidan | last 1¢ (book empty) |
Love Island UK Week 6: Elimination — 20 outcomes — listed Jul 06, 2026 at 12:36 PM ET
View market options (20 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Yasmine | bid 35¢ / ask 36¢ |
| Tommy | bid 21¢ / ask 23¢ |
| Simba | bid 36¢ / ask 38¢ |
| Sean | bid 6¢ / ask 7¢ |
| Samraj | bid 11¢ / ask 12¢ |
| Priya | bid 16¢ / ask 17¢ |
| Mica | bid 6¢ / ask 11¢ |
| Martha | bid 36¢ / ask 37¢ |
| Mara | bid 96¢ / ask 97¢ |
| Lorenzo | bid 5¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Lola | bid 7¢ / ask 9¢ |
| Kavan | bid 13¢ / ask 14¢ |
| Julia | bid 30¢ / ask 32¢ |
| Jordon | bid 20¢ / ask 25¢ |
| Jasmine | bid 12¢ / ask 13¢ |
| Finley | bid 4¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Ellie | bid 4¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Charleen | bid 70¢ / ask 71¢ |
| Angelista | bid 19¢ / ask 60¢ |
| Aidan | bid 41¢ / ask 47¢ |
Love Island USA S8: Monday elimination — 13 outcomes — listed Jul 06, 2026 at 10:25 AM ET
View market options (13 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Zach | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Trinity | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Tierra | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Sincere | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| NONE | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Melanie | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Kenzie | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| KC | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Kayda | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Dylan | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Carl | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Bryce | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Aniya | last 1¢ (book empty) |
Who will perform at the World Cup final halftime show?: Alicia Keys (bid 2¢ / ask 26¢) — listed Jul 06, 2026 at 4:31 PM ET
Will Ella Langley hold all Top 3 spots on the Billboard Hot 100 this year?: Ella Langley (bid 34¢ / ask 36¢) — listed Jul 06, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET
Love Island USA S8: Top 3 Couples: Tierra and KC (bid 50¢ / ask 62¢) — listed Jul 06, 2026 at 12:26 PM ET
🔄 Recurring Markets
1,343 recurring markets also launched — these are auto-generated daily/weekly/hourly brackets (weather, crypto prices, index levels, etc.).
| Category | Markets | Series | Top Series |
|---|---|---|---|
| 💹 Financials | 950 | 6 | Nasdaq above/below, S&P 500 above/below, S&P 500 range, +3 more |
| 🌤️ Climate and Weather | 289 | 42 | Hourly Directional NYC Temperature, Low Temperature Oklahoma City, Low Temperature Houston, +39 more |
| 📊 Economics | 89 | 6 | TSA check-ins this week, CPI-U index in [month], US gas price up, +3 more |
| 🔬 Science and Technology | 10 | 1 | Top model |
| 🎬 Entertainment | 5 | 3 | Will Album be runner up this week?, Billboard Top 200 #1, Netflix TV ranking |
All data sourced from the Kalshi public API. Prices shown are indicative Yes contract bid/ask at time of publication and may have moved. Trade responsibly.