📖 New here? How to read this post
Every day, new prediction markets launch on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade on real-world outcomes. Think of this post as a quick vibe check on what’s new in culture, politics, and the world — when you see markets pop up for the Oscars, a surprise album drop, Saturday Night Live hosts, or the next Fed decision, it tells you something about what people are paying attention to right now.
How to read this: On Kalshi, an event is the big question being asked — for example, “Who will win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?” Each event contains one or more markets, which are the specific yes-or-no outcomes you can actually trade — like “Will 1949 / Fatherland win Best Picture?” at a given price. When an event has numeric thresholds (“Will the S&P 500 close above 5,500?”), those individual levels are called brackets.
For each new event below, we include a link to find it on Kalshi so you can see live pricing. The first thing to do with any new market is understand the rules — then decide if you have an edge.
Here's every new market that launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours (Oct 01 at 6:30 PM ET through Oct 02 at 6:30 PM ET). Our scan picked up 535 unique markets across 61 new events, plus 4,967 recurring bracket markets.
⚡ What's Actionable Right Now
The launches from the past 24h with the tightest spreads and live two-sided quotes — i.e. the ones you can actually trade right now.
Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/5 - 10/11): October 11 bid 13¢ / ask 14¢, October 10 bid 14¢ / ask 15¢, October 9 bid 15¢ / ask 16¢
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/5 - 10/11): Above 300 bid 28¢ / ask 29¢, Above 290 bid 41¢ / ask 42¢, Above 280 bid 55¢ / ask 56¢
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/5 - 10/11): Above 275 bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Above 250 bid 5¢ / ask 6¢, Above 200 bid 39¢ / ask 40¢
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/5 - 10/11): Above 175 bid 70¢ / ask 71¢, Above 150 bid 89¢ / ask 91¢, Above 250 bid 6¢ / ask 10¢
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11): Above 15 bid 92¢ / ask 93¢, Above 100 bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Above 75 bid 2¢ / ask 4¢
Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (10/2-10/9): Above 36.9% — bid 25¢ / ask 26¢
Rivian vehicles delivered in Q1 2027: Above 25000 bid 54¢ / ask 55¢, Above 23000 bid 70¢ / ask 71¢, Above 19000 bid 91¢ / ask 92¢
All Events — every new event from the past 24h, at a glance
- Runner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Oct 3, 2026
- Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Oct 3, 2026
- YouTube Charts: Weekly Top Song Global
- YouTube Charts: Weekly Top Song USA
- Generic congressional ballot on Oct 3, 2026?
- How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (10/5-10/11)
- How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (10/4-10/10)
- How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (10/3-10/9)
- Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/5 - 10/11)
- Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/5 - 10/11)
- Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/5 - 10/11)
- Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)
- Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/5 - 10/11)
- Trump Truth Social posts on Oct 2, 2026?
- Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 3, 2026?
- Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Oct 9, 2026?
- Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (10/4 - 10/10)
- Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (10/2-10/9)
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 5, 2026?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 5, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Oct 5, 2026?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 5, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 5, 2026?
- Casino Ad Spend in September
- Consumer Electronics Ad Spend in September
- Dollar General Credit Card Spend in October
- Eli Lilly Credit Card Spend in October
- Fitness Centers Ad Spend in September
- Footwear Retail Ad Spend in September
- Ford total vehicle US sales in Q1 2027
- HBO App Downloads in September
- Max App Downloads in October
- Online Sportsbook Ad Spend in September
- Rivian vehicles delivered in Q1 2027
- Sporting Goods Ad Spend in September
- Streaming Ad Spend in September
- Anthropic share of requests on Oct 4, 2026 (Vercel)
- Anthropic share of requests on Oct 6, 2026 (Vercel)
- Anthropic share of spend on Oct 4, 2026 (Vercel)
- Anthropic share of spend on Oct 6, 2026 (Vercel)
- DeepSeek share of requests on Oct 4, 2026 (Vercel)
- DeepSeek share of requests on Oct 6, 2026 (Vercel)
- Google share of requests on Oct 4, 2026 (Vercel)
- Google share of requests on Oct 6, 2026 (Vercel)
- Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 4, 2026 (Vercel)
- Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 6, 2026 (Vercel)
- Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 4, 2026
- Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 6, 2026
- OpenAI share of requests on Oct 4, 2026 (Vercel)
- OpenAI share of requests on Oct 6, 2026 (Vercel)
- OpenAI share of spend on Oct 4, 2026 (Vercel)
- OpenAI share of spend on Oct 6, 2026 (Vercel)
- Top Open Source AI this week
- Top Text to Image AI this week
- Top Text to Speech AI this week
- Top Text to Video AI this week
All New Events
🗳️ Elections — 1 event, 1 market
Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (10/2-10/9)?: Above 8.9% (bid 48¢ / ask 52¢) — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:37 AM ET
📊 Economics — 3 events, 44 markets
Diesel prices tomorrow — 21 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET
View market strikes (21 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above $6.425 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.420 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.415 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.410 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.405 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.400 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.395 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.390 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.385 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.380 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.375 | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Above $6.370 | bid 2¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Above $6.365 | bid 13¢ / ask 15¢ |
| Above $6.360 | bid 29¢ / ask 33¢ |
| Above $6.355 | bid 60¢ / ask 62¢ |
| Above $6.350 | bid 86¢ / ask 89¢ |
| Above $6.345 | bid 97¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above $6.340 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above $6.335 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Above $6.330 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Above $6.325 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
EV commodity prices on Oct 2, 2026 — 15 brackets — listed Oct 01, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 1267.58 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1257.58 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1247.58 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1237.58 | — |
| Above 1227.58 | — |
| Above 1217.58 | ask 12¢ (no bids) |
| Above 1207.58 | last 2¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1197.58 | last 2¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1187.58 | bid 2¢ / ask 14¢ |
| Above 1177.58 | bid 94¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above 1167.58 | bid 97¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 1157.58 | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1147.58 | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1137.58 | bid 98¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1127.58 | bid 98¢ (no asks) |
ISM Manufacturing PMI in October — 8 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:24 AM ET
View market strikes (8 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| At least 58 | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| At least 57 | bid 6¢ / ask 7¢ |
| At least 56 | bid 16¢ / ask 17¢ |
| At least 55 | bid 36¢ / ask 37¢ |
| At least 54 | bid 62¢ / ask 63¢ |
| At least 53 | bid 84¢ / ask 85¢ |
| At least 52 | bid 94¢ / ask 95¢ |
| At least 51 | bid 97¢ / ask 98¢ |
🎬 Entertainment — 4 events, 60 markets
YouTube Charts: Weekly Top Song Global — 15 outcomes — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET
View market options (15 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Yeshanagula | ask 85¢ (no bids) |
| Пешта | ask 92¢ (no bids) |
| Training Season | ask 92¢ (no bids) |
| Sebebi Yar (Live) | bid 1¢ / ask 80¢ |
| SaWaDiKa | bid 1¢ / ask 79¢ |
| Parvati | bid 6¢ / ask 77¢ |
| new trick | ask 80¢ (no bids) |
| KALYANI (Remix) | bid 6¢ / ask 74¢ |
| Hootie Frutti | ask 84¢ (no bids) |
| Golden | bid 1¢ / ask 79¢ |
| Dai Dai | bid 6¢ (no asks) |
| Casa Tupka Anthemo (feat. Priyanshi Srivastava) | ask 84¢ (no bids) |
| BbY WOW | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Barsaat | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| BACKROOMS | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
Runner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Oct 3, 2026 — 15 outcomes — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET
View market options (15 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Yeshanagula | The Paradise | Nani | Keerthy Suresh | Anirudh Ravichander | Srikanth Odela | bid 7¢ / ask 50¢ |
| Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip | bid 9¢ / ask 50¢ |
| Training Season (Live) | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Taylor Swift - Patient Zero (Official Music Video) | bid 2¢ / ask 9¢ |
| Shararat | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| SaWaDiKa (Official Music Video) | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Parvati | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| KALYANI (Remix) | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Dai Dai | bid 6¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Casa Tupka Anthemo | bid 7¢ (no asks) |
| BbY WOW | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Basinga Balaalu | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Barsaat | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Ashke (Music Video) Karan Aujla | Mxrci | Aujla Szn 1 | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Aaya Sher | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Oct 3, 2026 — 15 outcomes — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET
View market options (15 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Yeshanagula | The Paradise | Nani | Keerthy Suresh | Anirudh Ravichander | Srikanth Odela | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Training Season (Live) | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Taylor Swift - Patient Zero (Official Music Video) | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Shararat | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| SaWaDiKa (Official Music Video) | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Parvati | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| KALYANI (Remix) | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Dai Dai | bid 6¢ (no asks) |
| Casa Tupka Anthemo | bid 6¢ / ask 20¢ |
| BbY WOW | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Basinga Balaalu | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Barsaat | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Ashke (Music Video) Karan Aujla | Mxrci | Aujla Szn 1 | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Aaya Sher | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
YouTube Charts: Weekly Top Song USA — 15 outcomes — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET
View market options (15 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| WTF GOIN (feat. 21 Savage) | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| What You Need | ask 85¢ (no bids) |
| Sunflower | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| September | ask 85¢ (no bids) |
| Pink Blush | ask 85¢ (no bids) |
| misery. | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Joseph | ask 85¢ (no bids) |
| Janice STFU | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Hootie Frutti | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Golden | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Dai Dai | bid 6¢ / ask 7¢ |
| Choosin' Texas | bid 8¢ / ask 86¢ |
| BbY WOW | bid 6¢ / ask 84¢ |
| Animal | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| AH HA | ask 94¢ (no bids) |
🏛️ Politics — 15 events, 93 markets
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) — 11 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:38 AM ET
View market strikes (11 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 75 | bid 2¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Above 50 | bid 3¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above 45 | bid 2¢ / ask 7¢ |
| Above 40 | bid 7¢ / ask 11¢ |
| Above 35 | bid 18¢ / ask 21¢ |
| Above 30 | bid 25¢ / ask 28¢ |
| Above 25 | bid 53¢ / ask 55¢ |
| Above 20 | bid 80¢ / ask 82¢ |
| Above 15 | bid 92¢ / ask 93¢ |
| Above 100 | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Above 10 | bid 94¢ / ask 97¢ |
Generic congressional ballot on Oct 3, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Below 8.6% | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| 9.2% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| 9.1% | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| 9.0% | bid 2¢ / ask 10¢ |
| 8.9% | bid 7¢ / ask 14¢ |
| 8.8% | bid 26¢ / ask 34¢ |
| 8.7% | bid 56¢ / ask 63¢ |
| 8.6% | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Above 9.2% | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 3, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Below 38.0% | bid 4¢ / ask 5¢ |
| 38.6% | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| 38.5% | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| 38.4% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| 38.3% | bid 4¢ / ask 5¢ |
| 38.2% | bid 80¢ / ask 81¢ |
| 38.1% | bid 9¢ / ask 11¢ |
| 38.0% | bid 4¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Above 38.6% | last 1¢ (book empty) |
How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (10/5-10/11) — 8 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 02, 2026 at 10:38 AM ET
Tracking: 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0
Trump Truth Social posts on Oct 2, 2026? — 8 outcomes — listed Oct 01, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
View market options (8 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| <5 | ask 7¢ (no bids) |
| 40+ | bid 1¢ / ask 29¢ |
| 5-9 | bid 1¢ / ask 13¢ |
| 30-39 | bid 1¢ / ask 22¢ |
| 25-29 | bid 1¢ / ask 17¢ |
| 20-24 | bid 1¢ / ask 18¢ |
| 15-19 | bid 2¢ / ask 20¢ |
| 10-14 | ask 27¢ (no bids) |
Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Oct 9, 2026? — 7 outcomes — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:39 AM ET
View market options (7 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Troy Jackson | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Sherrod Brown | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Mary Peltola | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| James Talarico | bid 75¢ / ask 85¢ |
| Jon Ossoff | bid 5¢ / ask 14¢ |
| Angie Nixon | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Abdul El-Sayed | bid 6¢ / ask 15¢ |
Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/5 - 10/11) — 7 outcomes — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:39 AM ET
View market options (7 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| October 11 | bid 13¢ / ask 14¢ |
| October 10 | bid 14¢ / ask 15¢ |
| October 9 | bid 15¢ / ask 16¢ |
| October 8 | bid 14¢ / ask 15¢ |
| October 7 | bid 17¢ / ask 18¢ |
| October 6 | bid 17¢ / ask 18¢ |
| October 5 | bid 16¢ / ask 17¢ |
How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (10/3-10/9) — 7 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 02, 2026 at 10:38 AM ET
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) — 6 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:39 AM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 8 | bid 11¢ / ask 19¢ |
| Above 6 | bid 51¢ / ask 59¢ |
| Above 4 | bid 86¢ / ask 90¢ |
| Above 14 | bid 3¢ / ask 7¢ |
| Above 12 | bid 4¢ / ask 9¢ |
| Above 10 | bid 9¢ / ask 13¢ |
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/5 - 10/11) — 5 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:39 AM ET
View market strikes (5 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 300 | bid 28¢ / ask 29¢ |
| Above 290 | bid 41¢ / ask 42¢ |
| Above 280 | bid 55¢ / ask 56¢ |
| Above 270 | bid 68¢ / ask 69¢ |
| Above 260 | bid 78¢ / ask 79¢ |
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/5 - 10/11) — 5 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:39 AM ET
View market strikes (5 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 275 | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Above 250 | bid 5¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above 225 | bid 12¢ / ask 18¢ |
| Above 200 | bid 39¢ / ask 40¢ |
| Above 175 | bid 83¢ / ask 87¢ |
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/5 - 10/11) — 5 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:38 AM ET
View market strikes (5 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 250 | bid 6¢ / ask 10¢ |
| Above 225 | bid 9¢ / ask 14¢ |
| Above 200 | bid 30¢ / ask 36¢ |
| Above 175 | bid 70¢ / ask 71¢ |
| Above 150 | bid 89¢ / ask 91¢ |
How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (10/4-10/10) — 4 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 02, 2026 at 10:39 AM ET
Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (10/4 - 10/10): Above 0 — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:38 AM ET
Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (10/2-10/9): Above 36.9% (bid 25¢ / ask 26¢) — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:37 AM ET
💹 Financials — 18 events, 141 markets
30Y US Treasury yield on Oct 5, 2026? — 15 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 5.74% or above | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| 5.72% or above | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| 5.7% or above | bid 3¢ / ask 68¢ |
| 5.68% or above | bid 9¢ / ask 68¢ |
| 5.66% or above | bid 7¢ / ask 39¢ |
| 5.64% or above | bid 9¢ / ask 47¢ |
| 5.62% or above | bid 49¢ / ask 90¢ |
| 5.6% or above | bid 62¢ / ask 88¢ |
| 5.58% or above | bid 21¢ / ask 88¢ |
| 5.56% or above | bid 8¢ (no asks) |
| 5.54% or above | bid 75¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 5.52% or above | bid 75¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 5.5% or above | bid 22¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 5.48% or above | bid 75¢ (no asks) |
| 5.46% or above | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 5, 2026? — 15 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 5.39% or above | bid 1¢ / ask 3¢ |
| 5.37% or above | bid 1¢ / ask 47¢ |
| 5.35% or above | bid 7¢ / ask 46¢ |
| 5.33% or above | bid 12¢ / ask 48¢ |
| 5.31% or above | bid 24¢ / ask 64¢ |
| 5.29% or above | bid 29¢ / ask 82¢ |
| 5.27% or above | bid 40¢ / ask 64¢ |
| 5.25% or above | bid 16¢ / ask 87¢ |
| 5.23% or above | bid 54¢ / ask 87¢ |
| 5.21% or above | bid 50¢ / ask 95¢ |
| 5.19% or above | bid 75¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 5.17% or above | bid 72¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 5.15% or above | bid 73¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 5.13% or above | bid 75¢ (no asks) |
| 5.11% or above | bid 75¢ (no asks) |
7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 5, 2026? — 15 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 5.24% or above | bid 6¢ / ask 55¢ |
| 5.22% or above | bid 12¢ / ask 53¢ |
| 5.2% or above | bid 15¢ / ask 92¢ |
| 5.18% or above | bid 8¢ / ask 49¢ |
| 5.16% or above | bid 49¢ / ask 86¢ |
| 5.14% or above | bid 62¢ / ask 86¢ |
| 5.12% or above | bid 81¢ / ask 86¢ |
| 5.1% or above | bid 81¢ / ask 92¢ |
| 5.08% or above | bid 22¢ / ask 97¢ |
| 5.06% or above | bid 82¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 5.04% or above | bid 23¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 5.02% or above | bid 95¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 5% or above | bid 95¢ (no asks) |
| 4.98% or above | bid 27¢ (no asks) |
| 4.96% or above | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 5, 2026? — 15 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 5.14% or above | bid 4¢ / ask 62¢ |
| 5.12% or above | bid 9¢ / ask 63¢ |
| 5.1% or above | bid 17¢ / ask 88¢ |
| 5.08% or above | bid 7¢ (no asks) |
| 5.06% or above | bid 7¢ / ask 62¢ |
| 5.04% or above | bid 54¢ / ask 79¢ |
| 5.02% or above | bid 27¢ / ask 79¢ |
| 5% or above | bid 28¢ / ask 88¢ |
| 4.98% or above | bid 86¢ / ask 94¢ |
| 4.96% or above | bid 25¢ / ask 98¢ |
| 4.94% or above | bid 27¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.92% or above | bid 46¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.9% or above | bid 7¢ (no asks) |
| 4.88% or above | bid 46¢ (no asks) |
| 4.86% or above | bid 75¢ (no asks) |
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 5, 2026? — 15 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 4.94% or above | bid 2¢ / ask 5¢ |
| 4.92% or above | bid 4¢ / ask 6¢ |
| 4.9% or above | bid 8¢ / ask 37¢ |
| 4.88% or above | bid 16¢ / ask 56¢ |
| 4.86% or above | bid 27¢ / ask 56¢ |
| 4.84% or above | bid 39¢ / ask 58¢ |
| 4.82% or above | bid 55¢ / ask 73¢ |
| 4.8% or above | bid 69¢ / ask 73¢ |
| 4.78% or above | bid 53¢ / ask 84¢ |
| 4.76% or above | bid 87¢ / ask 91¢ |
| 4.74% or above | bid 64¢ / ask 96¢ |
| 4.72% or above | bid 75¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.7% or above | bid 95¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.68% or above | bid 97¢ (no asks) |
| 4.66% or above | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
Ford total vehicle US sales in Q1 2027 — 13 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 12:59 PM ET
View market strikes (13 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 600,000 | bid 1¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Above 590,000 | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Above 580,000 | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Above 570,000 | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Above 560,000 | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Above 550,000 | bid 2¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Above 540,000 | bid 3¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Above 530,000 | bid 4¢ / ask 9¢ |
| Above 520,000 | bid 7¢ / ask 10¢ |
| Above 510,000 | bid 7¢ / ask 15¢ |
| Above 500,000 | bid 19¢ / ask 25¢ |
| Above 490,000 | bid 26¢ / ask 35¢ |
| Above 480,000 | bid 36¢ / ask 45¢ |
Rivian vehicles delivered in Q1 2027 — 11 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:29 AM ET
View market strikes (11 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 35000 | bid 2¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Above 33000 | bid 5¢ / ask 8¢ |
| Above 31000 | bid 7¢ / ask 13¢ |
| Above 29000 | bid 21¢ / ask 23¢ |
| Above 27000 | bid 37¢ / ask 39¢ |
| Above 25000 | bid 54¢ / ask 55¢ |
| Above 23000 | bid 70¢ / ask 71¢ |
| Above 21000 | bid 81¢ / ask 88¢ |
| Above 19000 | bid 91¢ / ask 92¢ |
| Above 17000 | bid 93¢ / ask 96¢ |
| Above 15000 | bid 95¢ / ask 99¢ |
Sporting Goods Ad Spend in September — 9 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 2:01 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 92 | bid 74¢ / ask 93¢ |
| Above 94 | bid 80¢ / ask 93¢ |
| Above 96 | bid 83¢ / ask 93¢ |
| Above 98 | bid 83¢ / ask 93¢ |
| Above 100 | bid 73¢ / ask 91¢ |
| Above 102 | bid 73¢ / ask 88¢ |
| Above 104 | bid 17¢ / ask 93¢ |
| Above 106 | bid 17¢ / ask 91¢ |
| Above 108 | bid 7¢ / ask 85¢ |
Casino Ad Spend in September — 6 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 79 | bid 27¢ / ask 44¢ |
| Above 78 | bid 28¢ / ask 46¢ |
| Above 77 | bid 39¢ / ask 64¢ |
| Above 76 | bid 9¢ / ask 89¢ |
| Above 75 | bid 8¢ (no asks) |
| Above 74 | bid 19¢ / ask 89¢ |
Max App Downloads in October — 3 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 6:01 AM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 35 | bid 38¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above 20 | bid 68¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above 5 | bid 69¢ / ask 96¢ |
Fitness Centers Ad Spend in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 4:01 AM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 119 | bid 20¢ / ask 71¢ |
| Above 118 | bid 23¢ / ask 71¢ |
| Above 117 | bid 32¢ / ask 70¢ |
Dollar General Credit Card Spend in October — 3 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 2:01 AM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 85 | bid 63¢ (no asks) |
| Above 78 | bid 63¢ (no asks) |
| Above 71 | bid 63¢ (no asks) |
Streaming Ad Spend in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 1:02 AM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 85 | bid 22¢ / ask 43¢ |
| Above 84 | bid 35¢ / ask 60¢ |
| Above 83 | bid 16¢ / ask 89¢ |
Footwear Retail Ad Spend in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 1:01 AM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 94 | bid 5¢ / ask 21¢ |
| Above 92 | bid 9¢ / ask 35¢ |
| Above 90 | bid 17¢ / ask 74¢ |
Consumer Electronics Ad Spend in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 12:01 AM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 114 | bid 60¢ / ask 67¢ |
| Above 112 | bid 60¢ / ask 68¢ |
| Above 110 | bid 81¢ / ask 96¢ |
HBO App Downloads in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 01, 2026 at 10:01 PM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 64 | bid 84¢ / ask 86¢ |
| Above 62 | bid 92¢ / ask 94¢ |
| Above 60 | bid 75¢ / ask 98¢ |
Online Sportsbook Ad Spend in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 01, 2026 at 9:01 PM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 148 | bid 2¢ / ask 62¢ |
| Above 150 | bid 2¢ / ask 17¢ |
| Above 152 | bid 2¢ / ask 12¢ |
Eli Lilly Credit Card Spend in October — 3 brackets — listed Oct 01, 2026 at 7:03 PM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 209 | bid 2¢ / ask 43¢ |
| Above 230 | ask 90¢ (no bids) |
| Above 251 | bid 2¢ / ask 42¢ |
🔬 Science and Technology — 20 events, 196 markets
Top Text to Speech AI this week — 17 outcomes — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:05 AM ET
View market options (17 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| VUI Labs | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| StepFun | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| SpeechifyAI | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| SpaceXAI | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Smallest.ai | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| OpenAI | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Nvidia | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Mistral | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| MiniMax | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Inworld | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ | |
| Fish Audio | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| ElevenLabs | bid 80¢ / ask 87¢ |
| Cartesia | bid 2¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Async | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Amazon | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Alibaba | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
Top Open Source AI this week — 13 outcomes — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:05 AM ET
View market options (13 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Xiaomi | bid 85¢ / ask 93¢ |
| Thinking Machines | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| OpenAI | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Nvidia | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Mistral | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| MiniMax | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Meta | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Kimi | bid 1¢ / ask 8¢ |
| bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ | |
| GLM | bid 1¢ / ask 8¢ |
| DeepSeek | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Cohere | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Alibaba | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
Top Text to Image AI this week — 11 outcomes — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:05 AM ET
View market options (11 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| SpaceXAI | bid 1¢ / ask 8¢ |
| Reve | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Recraft | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| OpenAI | bid 86¢ / ask 92¢ |
| Nvidia | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Microsoft | bid 1¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Krea | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| HiDream | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| bid 1¢ / ask 7¢ | |
| Bytedance | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Black Forest Labs | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
DeepSeek share of requests on Oct 4, 2026 (Vercel) — 10 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 02, 2026 at 3:14 PM ET
Top Text to Video AI this week — 10 outcomes — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:05 AM ET
View market options (10 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Vidu | bid 1¢ / ask 6¢ |
| SpaceXAI | bid 1¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Skywork AI | bid 1¢ / ask 6¢ |
| PixVerse | bid 1¢ / ask 6¢ |
| MiniMax | bid 1¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Lightricks | bid 1¢ / ask 6¢ |
| KlingAI | bid 1¢ / ask 6¢ |
| bid 1¢ / ask 6¢ | |
| ByteDance | bid 1¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Alibaba | bid 86¢ / ask 95¢ |
Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 4, 2026 — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 02, 2026 at 3:15 PM ET
Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 4, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 02, 2026 at 3:15 PM ET
OpenAI share of spend on Oct 4, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 02, 2026 at 3:15 PM ET
Anthropic share of spend on Oct 4, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 02, 2026 at 3:15 PM ET
Google share of requests on Oct 4, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 02, 2026 at 3:15 PM ET
OpenAI share of requests on Oct 4, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 02, 2026 at 3:15 PM ET
Anthropic share of requests on Oct 4, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 3:14 PM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 9.6% | bid 20¢ / ask 96¢ |
| Above 8.6% | — |
| Above 7.7% | — |
| Above 6.8% | — |
| Above 6.0% | — |
| Above 5.1% | — |
| Above 4.1% | — |
| Above 14.0% | — |
| Above 11.0% | — |
Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 6, 2026 — 9 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 74.2% | ask 88¢ (no bids) |
| Above 70.6% | ask 89¢ (no bids) |
| Above 69.0% | ask 89¢ (no bids) |
| Above 68.0% | ask 89¢ (no bids) |
| Above 66.0% | — |
| Above 62.5% | — |
| Above 59.2% | — |
| Above 54.4% | — |
| Above 50.4% | bid 11¢ (no asks) |
Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 6, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 8.9% | — |
| Above 4.8% | bid 10¢ (no asks) |
| Above 3.8% | bid 10¢ (no asks) |
| Above 2.7% | bid 10¢ (no asks) |
| Above 17.1% | ask 90¢ (no bids) |
| Above 15.1% | — |
| Above 13.8% | — |
| Above 12.2% | — |
| Above 10.6% | — |
OpenAI share of spend on Oct 6, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 02, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET
Anthropic share of spend on Oct 6, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 02, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET
Google share of requests on Oct 6, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 20.0% | ask 86¢ (no bids) |
| Above 19.4% | ask 84¢ (no bids) |
| Above 18.9% | ask 88¢ (no bids) |
| Above 18.1% | ask 86¢ (no bids) |
| Above 17.2% | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Above 15.4% | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Above 14.9% | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Above 13.6% | bid 5¢ (no asks) |
| Above 12.2% | bid 14¢ (no asks) |
OpenAI share of requests on Oct 6, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 02, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET
Anthropic share of requests on Oct 6, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 9.9% | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Above 8.5% | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Above 8.0% | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Above 7.6% | bid 5¢ (no asks) |
| Above 7.5% | bid 5¢ (no asks) |
| Above 6.7% | bid 6¢ (no asks) |
| Above 5.8% | bid 6¢ (no asks) |
| Above 5.1% | bid 6¢ (no asks) |
| Above 10.4% | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
DeepSeek share of requests on Oct 6, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 02, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET
🔄 Recurring Markets
4,967 recurring markets also launched — these are auto-generated daily/weekly/hourly brackets (weather, crypto prices, index levels, etc.).
| Category | Markets | Series | Top Series |
|---|---|---|---|
| 💹 Financials | 3,786 | 16 | Nasdaq above/below, S&P 500 above/below, DJI Hourly, +13 more |
| 📊 Economics | 697 | 47 | Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand, Florida gas price, Utah gas price, +44 more |
| 🌤️ Climate and Weather | 452 | 65 | Where will it rain daily, Napa rainfall totals, Hourly Directional Coastal LA Temperature, +62 more |
| 🏛️ Politics | 32 | 4 | Will Trump do anything today?, Number of Trump Truth Social posts this week?, President RCP approval rating this week, +1 more |
All data sourced from the Kalshi public API. Prices shown are indicative Yes contract bid/ask at time of publication and may have moved. Trade responsibly.