📖 New here? How to read this post
Every day, new prediction markets launch on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade on real-world outcomes. Think of this post as a quick vibe check on what’s new in culture, politics, and the world — when you see markets pop up for the Oscars, a surprise album drop, Saturday Night Live hosts, or the next Fed decision, it tells you something about what people are paying attention to right now.
How to read this: On Kalshi, an event is the big question being asked — for example, “Who will win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?” Each event contains one or more markets, which are the specific yes-or-no outcomes you can actually trade — like “Will 1949 / Fatherland win Best Picture?” at a given price. When an event has numeric thresholds (“Will the S&P 500 close above 5,500?”), those individual levels are called brackets.
For each new event below, we include a link to find it on Kalshi so you can see live pricing. The first thing to do with any new market is understand the rules — then decide if you have an edge.
Here's every new market that launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours (Jul 13 at 6:30 PM ET through Jul 14 at 6:30 PM ET). Our scan picked up 661 unique markets across 47 new events, plus 3,380 recurring bracket markets.
⚡ What's Actionable Right Now
The launches from the past 24h with the tightest spreads and live two-sided quotes — i.e. the ones you can actually trade right now.
Will NewJeans release a new song this year?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — bid 28¢ / ask 29¢
Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Jul 17, 2026?: Troy Jackson, Sherrod Brown, Shenna Bellows all at bid 1¢ / ask 4¢
Love Island UK: Tuesday Elimination: Jordon bid 1¢ / ask 4¢, None bid 96¢ (no asks), Martha last 2¢ (book empty)
New York City temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 7pm EDT?: 89° or above bid 14¢ / ask 18¢, 85° or above bid 95¢ / ask 99¢, 88° or above bid 30¢ / ask 36¢
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/13 - 7/19): Above 30 bid 83¢ / ask 87¢, Above 40 bid 67¢ / ask 71¢, Above 45 bid 32¢ / ask 99¢
2026 FIFA World Cup Final: Attendance: Tiger Woods bid 5¢ / ask 10¢, Will Smith bid 3¢ / ask 10¢, Jaxson Dart bid 20¢ / ask 30¢
All Events — every new event from the past 24h, at a glance
- How many DSA-endorsed candidates will win their primaries?
- How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress in 2026?
- How many seats will AfD win in the Saxony-Anhalt state election?
- Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Jul 17, 2026?
- Deportations in 2026?
- FY2026 Commerce Department gifts and bequests (including Gold Card receipts)
- How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?
- How many Senators vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?
- Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/13 - 7/19)
- RNC Cash on Hand (End of Q2)
- Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/13 - 7/19)
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- 2026 FIFA World Cup Final: Attendance
- How many views will the #1 Movie on Netflix have this week?
- How many views will the #1 Show on Netflix have this week?
- Love Island UK S13: Top 3 couples
- Love Island UK: Tuesday Elimination
- Oscar nominees: Best Supporting Actor
- Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor
- Will Minji, Hanni, Haerin, or Hyein leave NewJeans before Jan 1, 2027?
- Will NewJeans release a new song this year?
- Austin temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 7pm EDT?
- Austin temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- Chicago temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 7pm EDT?
- Chicago temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- Los Angeles temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 7pm EDT?
- Los Angeles temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- New York City temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 7pm EDT?
- New York City temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- Washington DC temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 7pm EDT?
- Washington DC temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Jul 15, 2026?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 15, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 15, 2026?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 15, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Jul 15, 2026?
- Dow Jones Industrial Average price today at 10am EDT
- Dow Jones Industrial Average price today at 11am EDT
- Dow Jones Industrial Average price today at 12pm EDT
- Dow Jones Industrial Average price today at 1pm EDT
- Dow Jones Industrial Average price today at 2pm EDT
- Dow Jones Industrial Average price today at 3pm EDT
- Dow Jones Industrial Average price today at 4pm EDT
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Up/Down
- Which brands will advertise during the World Soccer Cup Final
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
All New Events
🔬 Science and Technology — 1 event, 9 markets
Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 3:25 PM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 8k | bid 73¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Above 6k | bid 86¢ / ask 93¢ |
| Above 4k | bid 92¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 20k | bid 24¢ / ask 31¢ |
| Above 18k | bid 28¢ / ask 35¢ |
| Above 16k | bid 32¢ / ask 39¢ |
| Above 14k | bid 36¢ / ask 43¢ |
| Above 12k | bid 49¢ / ask 56¢ |
| Above 10k | bid 61¢ / ask 68¢ |
🗳️ Elections — 4 events, 15 markets
Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Jul 17, 2026? — 9 outcomes — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 6:09 PM ET
View market options (9 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Troy Jackson | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Sherrod Brown | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Shenna Bellows | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Nirav Shah | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Mary Peltola | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| James Talarico | bid 11¢ / ask 18¢ |
| Jon Ossoff | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Haley Stevens | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Abdul El-Sayed | bid 78¢ / ask 86¢ |
How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress in 2026? — 2 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Jul 14, 2026 at 3:10 PM ET
How many seats will AfD win in the Saxony-Anhalt state election? — 2 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Jul 14, 2026 at 3:09 PM ET
Tracking: 46 or more, 48 or more
How many DSA-endorsed candidates will win their primaries? — 2 brackets — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 3:04 PM ET
View market strikes (2 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 5 | bid 71¢ / ask 78¢ |
| Above 7 | bid 34¢ / ask 41¢ |
🏛️ Politics — 8 events, 17 markets
How many Senators vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence? — 4 brackets — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 3:01 PM ET
View market strikes (4 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 58 | bid 66¢ / ask 74¢ |
| Above 59 | bid 56¢ / ask 64¢ |
| Above 70 | bid 23¢ / ask 31¢ |
| Above 75 | bid 11¢ / ask 19¢ |
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/13 - 7/19) — 4 brackets — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 10:20 AM ET
View market strikes (4 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 40 | bid 67¢ / ask 71¢ |
| Above 30 | bid 83¢ / ask 87¢ |
| Above 45 | bid 32¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 60 | — |
FY2026 Commerce Department gifts and bequests (including Gold Card receipts) — 2 brackets — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 2:58 PM ET
View market strikes (2 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above $50M | bid 25¢ / ask 33¢ |
| Above $500M | bid 7¢ / ask 14¢ |
How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026? — 2 brackets — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 2:53 PM ET
View market strikes (2 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 110 | bid 1¢ / ask 30¢ |
| Above 120 | bid 1¢ / ask 33¢ |
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/13 - 7/19) — 2 brackets — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 10:22 AM ET
View market strikes (2 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 15 | bid 26¢ / ask 85¢ |
| Above 25 | bid 2¢ / ask 69¢ |
RNC Cash on Hand (End of Q2): Above 132.5 million (bid 18¢ / ask 25¢) — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 2:56 PM ET
Deportations in 2026?: Above 450,000 (bid 52¢ / ask 58¢) — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 2:48 PM ET
Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?: Yes — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 11:53 AM ET
🎬 Entertainment — 9 events, 51 markets
Love Island UK: Tuesday Elimination — 19 outcomes — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 10:56 AM ET
View market options (19 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Yasmine | — |
| Tommy | — |
| Simba | — |
| Samraj | — |
| Priya | — |
| None | bid 96¢ (no asks) |
| Mica | — |
| Martha | last 2¢ (book empty) |
| Lorenzo | — |
| Kavan | — |
| Julia | — |
| Jordon | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Jasmine | — |
| Finley | — |
| Ethan | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Ellie | — |
| Elicia | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Angelista | — |
| Aidan | — |
How many views will the #1 Show on Netflix have this week? — 11 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Jul 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
How many views will the #1 Movie on Netflix have this week? — 11 brackets — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
View market strikes (11 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| At least 9 million | — |
| At least 6 million | last 97¢ (book empty) |
| At least 50 million | — |
| At least 40 million | — |
| At least 35 million | — |
| At least 30 million | — |
| At least 25 million | — |
| At least 21 million | — |
| At least 18 million | — |
| At least 15 million | — |
| At least 12 million | — |
2026 FIFA World Cup Final: Attendance — 5 outcomes — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 1:52 PM ET
View market options (5 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Melania Trump | bid 17¢ / ask 27¢ |
| Ivanka Trump | bid 15¢ / ask 25¢ |
| Jaxson Dart | bid 20¢ / ask 30¢ |
| Will Smith | bid 3¢ / ask 10¢ |
| Tiger Woods | bid 5¢ / ask 10¢ |
Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor: Himesh Patel — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 6:04 PM ET
Oscar nominees: Best Supporting Actor: Himesh Patel — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 6:03 PM ET
Love Island UK S13: Top 3 couples: Angelista and Simba — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 11:12 AM ET
Will Minji, Hanni, Haerin, or Hyein leave NewJeans before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 (bid 28¢ / ask 29¢) — listed Jul 13, 2026 at 8:50 PM ET
Will NewJeans release a new song this year?: Before Jan 1, 2027 (bid 28¢ / ask 29¢) — listed Jul 13, 2026 at 8:40 PM ET
🌤️ Climate and Weather — 10 events, 100 markets
Washington DC temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 8pm EDT? — 10 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Jul 14, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET
Los Angeles temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 8pm EDT? — 10 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Jul 14, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET
Austin temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 8pm EDT? — 10 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Jul 14, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET
Chicago temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 8pm EDT? — 10 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Jul 14, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET
New York City temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 8pm EDT? — 10 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Jul 14, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET
Washington DC temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 7pm EDT? — 10 brackets — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
View market strikes (10 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 93° or above | last 3¢ (book empty) |
| 92° or above | bid 3¢ / ask 54¢ |
| 91° or above | bid 3¢ / ask 16¢ |
| 90° or above | bid 5¢ / ask 38¢ |
| 89° or above | bid 58¢ / ask 66¢ |
| 88° or above | bid 81¢ (no asks) |
| 87° or above | bid 40¢ (no asks) |
| 86° or above | bid 40¢ (no asks) |
| 85° or above | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| 84° or above | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
Los Angeles temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 7pm EDT? — 10 brackets — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
View market strikes (10 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 78° or above | bid 5¢ / ask 22¢ |
| 77° or above | bid 61¢ / ask 68¢ |
| 76° or above | bid 83¢ / ask 95¢ |
| 75° or above | bid 50¢ (no asks) |
| 74° or above | bid 77¢ (no asks) |
| 73° or above | bid 40¢ (no asks) |
| 72° or above | bid 40¢ (no asks) |
| 71° or above | bid 40¢ (no asks) |
| 70° or above | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| 69° or above | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
Austin temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 7pm EDT? — 10 brackets — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
View market strikes (10 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 83° or above | — |
| 82° or above | — |
| 81° or above | ask 60¢ (no bids) |
| 80° or above | ask 60¢ (no bids) |
| 79° or above | — |
| 78° or above | — |
| 77° or above | bid 21¢ / ask 98¢ |
| 76° or above | bid 48¢ (no asks) |
| 75° or above | bid 65¢ (no asks) |
| 74° or above | bid 85¢ (no asks) |
Chicago temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 7pm EDT? — 10 brackets — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
View market strikes (10 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 100° or above | — |
| 99° or above | ask 60¢ (no bids) |
| 98° or above | ask 60¢ (no bids) |
| 97° or above | bid 8¢ / ask 18¢ |
| 96° or above | bid 7¢ / ask 26¢ |
| 95° or above | bid 61¢ / ask 69¢ |
| 94° or above | bid 85¢ (no asks) |
| 93° or above | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| 92° or above | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| 101° or above | — |
New York City temperature on Jul 14, 2026 at 7pm EDT? — 10 brackets — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
View market strikes (10 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 91° or above | ask 10¢ (no bids) |
| 90° or above | bid 3¢ / ask 11¢ |
| 89° or above | bid 14¢ / ask 18¢ |
| 88° or above | bid 30¢ / ask 36¢ |
| 87° or above | bid 74¢ / ask 95¢ |
| 86° or above | bid 89¢ / ask 98¢ |
| 85° or above | bid 95¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 84° or above | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| 83° or above | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| 82° or above | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
💹 Financials — 15 events, 469 markets
Dow Jones Industrial Average price today at 4pm EDT — 60 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Jul 14, 2026 at 6:17 PM ET
Dow Jones Industrial Average price today at 3pm EDT — 60 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Jul 14, 2026 at 6:17 PM ET
Dow Jones Industrial Average price today at 2pm EDT — 60 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Jul 14, 2026 at 6:17 PM ET
Dow Jones Industrial Average price today at 1pm EDT — 60 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Jul 14, 2026 at 6:17 PM ET
Dow Jones Industrial Average price today at 12pm EDT — 60 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Jul 14, 2026 at 6:17 PM ET
Dow Jones Industrial Average price today at 11am EDT — 60 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Jul 14, 2026 at 6:17 PM ET
Dow Jones Industrial Average price today at 10am EDT — 60 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Jul 14, 2026 at 6:17 PM ET
30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 15, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 5.3% or above | last 2¢ (book empty) |
| 5.25% or above | — |
| 5.2% or above | ask 19¢ (no bids) |
| 5.15% or above | — |
| 5.1% or above | — |
| 5.05% or above | bid 81¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 5% or above | bid 81¢ / ask 98¢ |
| 4.95% or above | — |
| 4.9% or above | last 99¢ (book empty) |
10Y US Treasury yield on Jul 15, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 4.8% or above | last 4¢ (book empty) |
| 4.75% or above | ask 14¢ (no bids) |
| 4.7% or above | — |
| 4.65% or above | last 10¢ (book empty) |
| 4.6% or above | — |
| 4.55% or above | last 95¢ (book empty) |
| 4.5% or above | — |
| 4.45% or above | — |
| 4.4% or above | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
7Y US Treasury yield on Jul 15, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 4.7% or above | — |
| 4.65% or above | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| 4.6% or above | — |
| 4.55% or above | — |
| 4.5% or above | — |
| 4.45% or above | — |
| 4.4% or above | — |
| 4.35% or above | — |
| 4.3% or above | — |
5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 15, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 4.55% or above | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| 4.5% or above | last 2¢ (book empty) |
| 4.45% or above | — |
| 4.4% or above | last 5¢ (book empty) |
| 4.35% or above | — |
| 4.3% or above | last 64¢ (book empty) |
| 4.25% or above | — |
| 4.2% or above | — |
| 4.15% or above | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 15, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 4.45% or above | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| 4.4% or above | — |
| 4.35% or above | — |
| 4.3% or above | — |
| 4.25% or above | last 9¢ (book empty) |
| 4.2% or above | — |
| 4.15% or above | — |
| 4.1% or above | — |
| 4.05% or above | — |
Which brands will advertise during the World Soccer Cup Final — 2 outcomes — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 3:56 PM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Casamigos | bid 33¢ / ask 64¢ |
| New Balance | bid 49¢ / ask 82¢ |
Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?: DeepSeek — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 3:47 PM ET
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Up/Down: Above 101.0555 — listed Jul 14, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
🔄 Recurring Markets
3,380 recurring markets also launched — these are auto-generated daily/weekly/hourly brackets (weather, crypto prices, index levels, etc.).
| Category | Markets | Series | Top Series |
|---|---|---|---|
| 💹 Financials | 2,973 | 7 | Nasdaq above/below, S&P 500 above/below, S&P 500 range, +4 more |
| 🌤️ Climate and Weather | 261 | 42 | Where will it rain daily, Low Temperature Oklahoma City, Low Temperature Houston, +39 more |
| 🎬 Entertainment | 82 | 10 | RUNNER UP SHOW NETFLIX MOVIE GLOBAL, Netflix movie ranking, RUNNER UP SHOW NETFLIX SHOW GLOBAL, +7 more |
| 📊 Economics | 59 | 4 | US gas price up, CPI Combo, CPI-U index in [month], +1 more |
| 🏛️ Politics | 5 | 2 | Judges confirmed, Will Trump do anything today? |
All data sourced from the Kalshi public API. Prices shown are indicative Yes contract bid/ask at time of publication and may have moved. Trade responsibly.