📖 New here? How to read this post
Every day, new prediction markets launch on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade on real-world outcomes. Think of this post as a quick vibe check on what’s new in culture, politics, and the world — when you see markets pop up for the Oscars, a surprise album drop, Saturday Night Live hosts, or the next Fed decision, it tells you something about what people are paying attention to right now.
How to read this: On Kalshi, an event is the big question being asked — for example, “Who will win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?” Each event contains one or more markets, which are the specific yes-or-no outcomes you can actually trade — like “Will 1949 / Fatherland win Best Picture?” at a given price. When an event has numeric thresholds (“Will the S&P 500 close above 5,500?”), those individual levels are called brackets.
For each new event below, we include a link to find it on Kalshi so you can see live pricing. The first thing to do with any new market is understand the rules — then decide if you have an edge.
Here's every new market that launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours (Jul 02 at 8:30 AM ET through Jul 03 at 8:30 AM ET). Our scan picked up 76 unique markets across 39 new events, plus 1,391 recurring bracket markets.
⚡ What's Actionable Right Now
The launches from the past 24h with the tightest spreads and live two-sided quotes — i.e. the ones you can actually trade right now.
Phantasmal Flames Booster Box Up or Down: July : Above $457.1 — bid 94¢ / ask 95¢
Mega Charizard Y ex Up or Down: July : Above $613.81 — bid 14¢ / ask 15¢
Mega Dragonite ex Up or Down: July : Above $795.01 — bid 14¢ / ask 15¢
Mega Gengar ex Up or Down: July : Above $1390.04 — bid 13¢ / ask 14¢
151 Ultra-Premium Collection Up or Down: July : Above $1006.43 — bid 13¢ / ask 14¢
Charizard ex Up or Down: July : Above $422.12 — bid 13¢ / ask 14¢
Mega Charizard X ex Up or Down: July : Above $38.47 — bid 95¢ / ask 96¢
All Events — every new event from the past 24h, at a glance
- What will the peak RONI value be for the NDJ 2026-27 quarter?
- What will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?
- NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down
- NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down
- NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down
- NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down
- NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down
- NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down
- S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down
- S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down
- S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down
- S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down
- S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down
- S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down
- When will Ferrari deliver the Ferrari Luce?
- 151 Ultra-Premium Collection Up or Down: July
- Ascended Heroes Elite Trainer Box Up or Down: July
- Ascended Heroes Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive) Up or Down: July
- Blooming Waters Premium Collection Up or Down: July
- Bulbasaur Up or Down: July
- Celebrations Ultra Premium Collection Up or Down: July
- Charizard ex Up or Down: July
- Charmander Up or Down: July
- First Partner Illustration Collection (Series 1) Up or Down: July
- Gengar (Cosmos Holo) (EB Games Exclusive) Up or Down: July
- Mega Charizard X ex Up or Down: July
- Mega Charizard Y ex Up or Down: July
- Mega Dragonite ex Up or Down: July
- Mega Gengar ex Up or Down: July
- Oscar nominees: Best Documentary Feature Film
- Perfect Order Booster Box Up or Down: July
- Perfect Order Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box Up or Down: July
- Phantasmal Flames Booster Box Up or Down: July
- Pikachu ex Up or Down: July
- Squirtle Up or Down: July
- Team Rocket’s Moltres ex Ultra-Premium Collection Up or Down: July
- Who will have a #1 album this year?
All New Events
🏛️ Politics — 1 event, 8 markets
Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (July 2026) — 8 brackets — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:36 AM ET
View market strikes (8 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| At least 90 | bid 10¢ / ask 13¢ |
| At least 80 | bid 20¢ / ask 23¢ |
| At least 70 | bid 28¢ / ask 29¢ |
| At least 60 | bid 51¢ / ask 54¢ |
| At least 50 | bid 84¢ / ask 85¢ |
| At least 30 | bid 97¢ / ask 98¢ |
| At least 100 | bid 8¢ / ask 9¢ |
| At least 40 | bid 87¢ / ask 90¢ |
🗳️ Elections — 1 event, 13 markets
Which ballot measures will pass in California? — 13 outcomes — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET
View market options (13 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Proposition 45 | bid 42¢ / ask 74¢ |
| Proposition 44 | bid 58¢ / ask 60¢ |
| Proposition 43 | bid 38¢ / ask 39¢ |
| Proposition 42 | bid 41¢ / ask 43¢ |
| Proposition 41 | bid 53¢ / ask 55¢ |
| Proposition 39 | bid 36¢ / ask 37¢ |
| Proposition 38 | bid 61¢ / ask 62¢ |
| Proposition 37 | bid 40¢ / ask 41¢ |
| Proposition 5 | bid 51¢ / ask 53¢ |
| Proposition 4 | bid 39¢ / ask 40¢ |
| Proposition 3 | bid 66¢ / ask 68¢ |
| Proposition 2 | bid 73¢ / ask 74¢ |
| Proposition 1 | bid 49¢ / ask 51¢ |
🌤️ Climate and Weather — 2 events, 11 markets
What will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season? — 6 outcomes — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 6:45 PM ET
View market options (6 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| At least 2.5°C | bid 17¢ / ask 18¢ |
| Below 0.5°C | bid 24¢ / ask 25¢ |
| 2.0°C to 2.4°C | bid 19¢ / ask 20¢ |
| 1.5°C to 1.9°C | bid 14¢ / ask 15¢ |
| 1.0°C to 1.4°C | bid 11¢ / ask 12¢ |
| 0.5°C to 0.9°C | bid 13¢ / ask 14¢ |
What will the peak RONI value be for the NDJ 2026-27 quarter? — 5 outcomes — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 5:07 PM ET
View market options (5 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| At least 2.0°C | bid 17¢ / ask 18¢ |
| Below 0.5°C | bid 17¢ / ask 18¢ |
| 1.5°C to 1.9°C | bid 32¢ / ask 34¢ |
| 1.0°C to 1.4°C | bid 25¢ / ask 26¢ |
| 0.5°C to 0.9°C | bid 4¢ / ask 9¢ |
💹 Financials — 13 events, 20 markets
When will Ferrari deliver the Ferrari Luce? — 8 outcomes — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 1:25 PM ET
View market options (8 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Before May 1, 2027 | bid 90¢ / ask 91¢ |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | bid 87¢ / ask 90¢ |
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | bid 91¢ / ask 92¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | bid 81¢ / ask 84¢ |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | bid 84¢ / ask 87¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | bid 89¢ / ask 92¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | bid 56¢ / ask 59¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | bid 76¢ / ask 79¢ |
S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
🎬 Entertainment — 22 events, 24 markets
Who will have a #1 album this year? — 2 outcomes — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:34 AM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Madonna | bid 31¢ / ask 97¢ |
| ENHYPEN | bid 33¢ / ask 34¢ |
Oscar nominees: Best Documentary Feature Film — 2 outcomes — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:19 AM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Once Upon a Time in Harlem | bid 62¢ / ask 69¢ |
| American Doctor | bid 61¢ / ask 69¢ |
Team Rocket’s Moltres ex Ultra-Premium Collection Up or Down: July : Above $358.19 (bid 60¢ / ask 65¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Phantasmal Flames Booster Box Up or Down: July : Above $457.1 (bid 94¢ / ask 95¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Mega Charizard Y ex Up or Down: July : Above $613.81 (bid 14¢ / ask 15¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Mega Dragonite ex Up or Down: July : Above $795.01 (bid 14¢ / ask 15¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Pikachu ex Up or Down: July : Above $1286.63 (bid 49¢ / ask 51¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Mega Gengar ex Up or Down: July : Above $1390.04 (bid 13¢ / ask 14¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Ascended Heroes Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive) Up or Down: July : Above $445.57 (bid 10¢ / ask 89¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Celebrations Ultra Premium Collection Up or Down: July : Above $1264.36 (bid 11¢ / ask 60¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Blooming Waters Premium Collection Up or Down: July : Above $361.24 (bid 40¢ / ask 89¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
151 Ultra-Premium Collection Up or Down: July : Above $1006.43 (bid 13¢ / ask 14¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Charizard ex Up or Down: July : Above $422.12 (bid 13¢ / ask 14¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Mega Charizard X ex Up or Down: July : Above $38.47 (bid 95¢ / ask 96¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
First Partner Illustration Collection (Series 1) Up or Down: July : Above $75.1 (bid 94¢ / ask 95¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Ascended Heroes Elite Trainer Box Up or Down: July : Above $175.75 (bid 15¢ / ask 90¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Perfect Order Booster Box Up or Down: July : Above $222.7 (bid 94¢ / ask 95¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Perfect Order Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box Up or Down: July : Above $134.96 (bid 13¢ / ask 14¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Gengar (Cosmos Holo) (EB Games Exclusive) Up or Down: July : Above $125.59 (bid 94¢ / ask 95¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Squirtle Up or Down: July : Above $31.54 (bid 89¢ / ask 90¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Bulbasaur Up or Down: July : Above $31.52 (bid 40¢ / ask 88¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Charmander Up or Down: July : Above $42.39 (bid 13¢ / ask 14¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
🔄 Recurring Markets
1,391 recurring markets also launched — these are auto-generated daily/weekly/hourly brackets (weather, crypto prices, index levels, etc.).
| Category | Markets | Series | Top Series |
|---|---|---|---|
| 💹 Financials | 1,044 | 9 | S&P 500 above/below, Nasdaq above/below, S&P 500 range, +6 more |
| 🌤️ Climate and Weather | 296 | 43 | Hourly Directional NYC Temperature, St Petersburg Rain Monthly, Low Temperature Oklahoma City, +40 more |
| 📊 Economics | 47 | 5 | US gas price up, Employment Combo, Weekly initial jobless claims, +2 more |
| 🎬 Entertainment | 4 | 4 | WHICH SONG WILL BE NUMBER THIS MONTH, RUNNER UP NETFLIX SHOW, RUNNER UP NETFLIX MOVIE, +1 more |
All data sourced from the Kalshi public API. Prices shown are indicative Yes contract bid/ask at time of publication and may have moved. Trade responsibly.