📖 New here? How to read this post
Every day, new prediction markets launch on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade on real-world outcomes. Think of this post as a quick vibe check on what’s new in culture, politics, and the world — when you see markets pop up for the Oscars, a surprise album drop, Saturday Night Live hosts, or the next Fed decision, it tells you something about what people are paying attention to right now.
How to read this: On Kalshi, an event is the big question being asked — for example, “Who will win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?” Each event contains one or more markets, which are the specific yes-or-no outcomes you can actually trade — like “Will 1949 / Fatherland win Best Picture?” at a given price. When an event has numeric thresholds (“Will the S&P 500 close above 5,500?”), those individual levels are called brackets.
For each new event below, we include a link to find it on Kalshi so you can see live pricing. The first thing to do with any new market is understand the rules — then decide if you have an edge.
Here's every new market that launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours (Jul 02 at 6:30 PM ET through Jul 03 at 6:30 PM ET). Our scan picked up 72 unique markets across 40 new events, plus 1,404 recurring bracket markets.
⚡ What's Actionable Right Now
The launches from the past 24h with the tightest spreads and live two-sided quotes — i.e. the ones you can actually trade right now.
Tesla deliveries in Q3: Above 440000 bid 58¢ / ask 59¢, Above 430000 bid 60¢ / ask 61¢, Above 370000 bid 94¢ / ask 95¢
Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (7/3-7/10)?: Above 5.6% — bid 73¢ / ask 74¢
Pikachu ex Up or Down: July : Above $1286.63 — bid 38¢ / ask 39¢
Celebrations Ultra Premium Collection Up or Down: July : Above $1264.36 — bid 68¢ / ask 69¢
Blooming Waters Premium Collection Up or Down: July : Above $361.24 — bid 58¢ / ask 59¢
Charizard ex Up or Down: July : Above $422.12 — bid 49¢ / ask 50¢
All Events — every new event from the past 24h, at a glance
- How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (7/6-7/12)
- How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (7/5-7/11)
- Trump late night post this week? (7/5-7/11)
- Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (7/5 - 7/11)
- Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (7/3-7/10)?
- NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down
- NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down
- NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down
- NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down
- NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down
- NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down
- S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down
- S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down
- S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down
- S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down
- S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down
- S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down
- Tesla deliveries in Q3
- 151 Ultra-Premium Collection Up or Down: July
- Ascended Heroes Elite Trainer Box Up or Down: July
- Ascended Heroes Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive) Up or Down: July
- Blooming Waters Premium Collection Up or Down: July
- Bulbasaur Up or Down: July
- Celebrations Ultra Premium Collection Up or Down: July
- Charizard ex Up or Down: July
- Charmander Up or Down: July
- First Partner Illustration Collection (Series 1) Up or Down: July
- Gengar (Cosmos Holo) (EB Games Exclusive) Up or Down: July
- Mega Charizard X ex Up or Down: July
- Mega Charizard Y ex Up or Down: July
- Mega Dragonite ex Up or Down: July
- Mega Gengar ex Up or Down: July
- Perfect Order Booster Box Up or Down: July
- Perfect Order Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box Up or Down: July
- Phantasmal Flames Booster Box Up or Down: July
- Pikachu ex Up or Down: July
- Squirtle Up or Down: July
- Team Rocket’s Moltres ex Ultra-Premium Collection Up or Down: July
All New Events
🗳️ Elections — 1 event, 1 market
Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (7/3-7/10)?: Above 5.6% (bid 73¢ / ask 74¢) — listed Jul 03, 2026 at 10:26 AM ET
🌤️ Climate and Weather — 1 event, 6 markets
What will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season? — 6 outcomes — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 6:45 PM ET
View market options (6 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| At least 2.5°C | bid 6¢ / ask 7¢ |
| Below 0.5°C | bid 4¢ / ask 5¢ |
| 2.0°C to 2.4°C | bid 33¢ / ask 34¢ |
| 1.5°C to 1.9°C | bid 31¢ / ask 32¢ |
| 1.0°C to 1.4°C | bid 18¢ / ask 20¢ |
| 0.5°C to 0.9°C | bid 8¢ / ask 9¢ |
🏛️ Politics — 5 events, 18 markets
How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (7/5-7/11) — 7 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Jul 03, 2026 at 10:26 AM ET
Trump late night post this week? (7/5-7/11) — 5 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Jul 03, 2026 at 10:26 AM ET
Tracking: 5-6 AM, 4-5 AM, 3-4 AM, 2-3 AM, 1-2 AM
How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (7/6-7/12) — 4 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Jul 03, 2026 at 10:26 AM ET
Tracking: 7, 6, 5, 4
Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (7/5 - 7/11): Above 0 — listed Jul 03, 2026 at 10:26 AM ET
Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (7/3-7/10)?: Above 40.2% (bid 51¢ / ask 57¢) — listed Jul 03, 2026 at 10:25 AM ET
💹 Financials — 13 events, 27 markets
Tesla deliveries in Q3 — 15 brackets — listed Jul 03, 2026 at 11:26 AM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 480000.0 | bid 13¢ / ask 15¢ |
| Above 470000 | bid 45¢ / ask 48¢ |
| Above 460000 | bid 43¢ / ask 46¢ |
| Above 450000 | bid 48¢ / ask 52¢ |
| Above 440000 | bid 58¢ / ask 59¢ |
| Above 430000 | bid 60¢ / ask 61¢ |
| Above 420000 | bid 76¢ / ask 81¢ |
| Above 410000 | bid 84¢ / ask 87¢ |
| Above 400000 | bid 87¢ / ask 89¢ |
| Above 390000 | bid 87¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 380000 | bid 89¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above 370000 | bid 94¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above 360000 | bid 93¢ / ask 94¢ |
| Above 350000 | bid 94¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 340000 | bid 97¢ / ask 99¢ |
S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
NASDAQ-100 Hourly Up/Down: Above $0.00 — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
🎬 Entertainment — 20 events, 20 markets
Team Rocket’s Moltres ex Ultra-Premium Collection Up or Down: July : Above $358.19 (bid 18¢ / ask 21¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Phantasmal Flames Booster Box Up or Down: July : Above $457.1 (bid 54¢ / ask 58¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Mega Charizard Y ex Up or Down: July : Above $613.81 (bid 45¢ / ask 55¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Mega Dragonite ex Up or Down: July : Above $795.01 (bid 53¢ / ask 55¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Pikachu ex Up or Down: July : Above $1286.63 (bid 38¢ / ask 39¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Mega Gengar ex Up or Down: July : Above $1390.04 (bid 44¢ / ask 46¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Ascended Heroes Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive) Up or Down: July : Above $445.57 (bid 50¢ / ask 51¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Celebrations Ultra Premium Collection Up or Down: July : Above $1264.36 (bid 68¢ / ask 69¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Blooming Waters Premium Collection Up or Down: July : Above $361.24 (bid 58¢ / ask 59¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
151 Ultra-Premium Collection Up or Down: July : Above $1006.43 (bid 46¢ / ask 48¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Charizard ex Up or Down: July : Above $422.12 (bid 49¢ / ask 50¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Mega Charizard X ex Up or Down: July : Above $38.47 (bid 48¢ / ask 94¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
First Partner Illustration Collection (Series 1) Up or Down: July : Above $75.1 (bid 45¢ / ask 50¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Ascended Heroes Elite Trainer Box Up or Down: July : Above $175.75 (bid 47¢ / ask 48¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Perfect Order Booster Box Up or Down: July : Above $222.7 (bid 45¢ / ask 47¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Perfect Order Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box Up or Down: July : Above $134.96 (bid 45¢ / ask 48¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Gengar (Cosmos Holo) (EB Games Exclusive) Up or Down: July : Above $125.59 (bid 46¢ / ask 50¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Squirtle Up or Down: July : Above $31.54 (bid 40¢ / ask 44¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Bulbasaur Up or Down: July : Above $31.52 (bid 58¢ / ask 59¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Charmander Up or Down: July : Above $42.39 (bid 53¢ / ask 71¢) — listed Jul 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
🔄 Recurring Markets
1,404 recurring markets also launched — these are auto-generated daily/weekly/hourly brackets (weather, crypto prices, index levels, etc.).
| Category | Markets | Series | Top Series |
|---|---|---|---|
| 💹 Financials | 1,054 | 9 | Nasdaq above/below, S&P 500 above/below, S&P 500 range, +6 more |
| 🌤️ Climate and Weather | 289 | 42 | Hourly Directional NYC Temperature, Low Temperature Oklahoma City, Low Temperature Houston, +39 more |
| 📊 Economics | 28 | 3 | US gas price up, FAO Food Price Index in [month]?, Fish meal price average price |
| 🏛️ Politics | 28 | 4 | Number of Trump Truth Social posts this week?, Will Trump do anything today?, President RCP approval rating this week, +1 more |
| 🔬 Science and Technology | 5 | 5 | RTX 5090 Weekly Price, B200 Weekly Price, A100 Weekly Price, +2 more |
All data sourced from the Kalshi public API. Prices shown are indicative Yes contract bid/ask at time of publication and may have moved. Trade responsibly.