📖 New here? How to read this post
Every day, new prediction markets launch on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade on real-world outcomes. Think of this post as a quick vibe check on what’s new in culture, politics, and the world — when you see markets pop up for the Oscars, a surprise album drop, Saturday Night Live hosts, or the next Fed decision, it tells you something about what people are paying attention to right now.
How to read this: On Kalshi, an event is the big question being asked — for example, “Who will win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?” Each event contains one or more markets, which are the specific yes-or-no outcomes you can actually trade — like “Will 1949 / Fatherland win Best Picture?” at a given price. When an event has numeric thresholds (“Will the S&P 500 close above 5,500?”), those individual levels are called brackets.
For each new event below, we include a link to find it on Kalshi so you can see live pricing. The first thing to do with any new market is understand the rules — then decide if you have an edge.
Here's every new market that launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours (May 16 at 8:30 AM ET through May 17 at 8:30 AM ET). Our scan picked up 94 unique markets across 22 new events, plus 371 recurring bracket markets.
⚡ What's Actionable Right Now
The launches from the past 24h with the tightest spreads and live two-sided quotes — i.e. the ones you can actually trade right now.
Top AI this week: ChatGPT bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Gemini bid 5¢ / ask 6¢, Claude bid 95¢ / ask 97¢
St. Petersburg Mayoral Election: Paul Congemi, Maria Scruggs, Kevin Batdorf all at bid 1¢ / ask 5¢
Who will Trump pardon?: Jho Low — bid 23¢ / ask 27¢
Will Lauren Boebert be the CO-04 Republican nominee?: Yes — bid 94¢ / ask 99¢
Who will Trump pardon in 2026?: Jho Low — bid 12¢ / ask 18¢
Flint Mayoral Election: Tonya Burns bid 1¢ / ask 8¢, Sheldon Neeley bid 76¢ / ask 83¢, Roshanda Womack bid 1¢ / ask 8¢
Will California’s billionaire tax take effect?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — bid 21¢ / ask 39¢
All Events — every new event from the past 24h, at a glance
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Who will Trump pardon in 2026?
- Who will Trump pardon?
- Will California’s billionaire tax take effect?
- Will Trump lower beef tariffs?
- Will Trump talk to a sitting Supreme Court justice?
- Berlin State Election
- Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election
- Flint Mayoral Election
- Iceland EU Membership Negotiations Referendum
- Kansas Supreme Court Election Method Amendment
- Oklahoma SQ 832 Minimum Wage Initiative
- Oregon Ballot Measure 120
- Pensacola Mayoral Election
- Slovak Referendum on Lifelong Payments for Leaders
- St. Petersburg Mayoral Election
- Tallahassee Mayoral Election
- Who will Obama endorse before the midterms?
- Will Lauren Boebert be the CO-04 Republican nominee?
All New Events
🔬 Science and Technology — 3 events, 25 markets
Top Coding AI this week — 9 outcomes — listed May 16, 2026 at 9:21 AM ET
View market options (9 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Qwen | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| MiniMax | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Kimi | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Grok | ask 90¢ (no bids) |
| GLM | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Gemini | ask 90¢ (no bids) |
| Dola | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Claude | bid 23¢ / ask 99¢ |
| ChatGPT | ask 8¢ (no bids) |
Which countries will report a Ebola case in 2026? — 8 outcomes — listed May 16, 2026 at 3:13 PM ET
View market options (8 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| United States | bid 5¢ / ask 30¢ |
| South Sudan | — |
| Rwanda | — |
| Kenya | — |
| India | — |
| Republic of the Congo | bid 52¢ (no asks) |
| China | — |
| Burundi | — |
Top AI this week — 8 outcomes — listed May 16, 2026 at 9:22 AM ET
View market options (8 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Grok | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| ChatGPT | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Muse | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Gemini | bid 5¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Dola | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Claude | bid 95¢ / ask 97¢ |
| Amazon Nova | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Qwen | last 1¢ (book empty) |
🏛️ Politics — 6 events, 16 markets
How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — 8 brackets — listed May 16, 2026 at 3:26 PM ET
View market strikes (8 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 68 | bid 7¢ / ask 25¢ |
| Above 66 | bid 23¢ / ask 42¢ |
| Above 64 | bid 40¢ / ask 59¢ |
| Above 62 | bid 56¢ / ask 75¢ |
| Above 60 | bid 63¢ / ask 82¢ |
| Above 58 | bid 70¢ / ask 89¢ |
| Above 55 | bid 77¢ / ask 96¢ |
| Above 50 | bid 83¢ (no asks) |
Will Trump lower beef tariffs? — 3 outcomes — listed May 16, 2026 at 3:14 PM ET
View market options (3 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Before Jun 15, 2026 | — |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | last 2¢ (book empty) |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | — |
Will Trump talk to a sitting Supreme Court justice? — 2 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · May 16, 2026 at 3:41 PM ET
Tracking: Before Jan 1, 2027, Before Aug 1, 2026
Will California’s billionaire tax take effect?: Before Jan 1, 2027 (bid 21¢ / ask 39¢) — listed May 16, 2026 at 3:43 PM ET
Who will Trump pardon in 2026?: Jho Low (bid 12¢ / ask 18¢) — listed May 16, 2026 at 2:51 PM ET
Who will Trump pardon?: Jho Low (bid 23¢ / ask 27¢) — listed May 16, 2026 at 2:50 PM ET
🗳️ Elections — 13 events, 53 markets
Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election — 10 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · May 16, 2026 at 2:29 PM ET
Tracking: SNSD, SDS, SDP BiH, SDA, PDP, Naša Stranka, NiP, NES, HDZ BiH, DF
Who will Obama endorse before the midterms? — 8 outcomes — listed May 16, 2026 at 3:15 PM ET
View market options (8 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Sherrod Brown | bid 76¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Roy Cooper | bid 76¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Mary Peltola | bid 61¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Keisha Lance Bottoms | bid 61¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Karen Bass | bid 61¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Jon Ossoff | bid 76¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Graham Platner | bid 61¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Dan Osborn | bid 61¢ / ask 80¢ |
Berlin State Election — 7 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · May 16, 2026 at 3:10 PM ET
Tracking: SPD, Grüne, FDP, Die Linke, CDU, BSW, AfD
St. Petersburg Mayoral Election — 7 outcomes — listed May 16, 2026 at 3:07 PM ET
View market options (7 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Paul Congemi | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Maria Scruggs | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Ken Welch | bid 51¢ / ask 58¢ |
| Kevin Batdorf | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Jim Large | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Charlie Crist | bid 36¢ / ask 43¢ |
| Brandi Gabbard | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
Pensacola Mayoral Election — 5 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · May 16, 2026 at 3:09 PM ET
Tracking: Jermaine Williams, Jasmine Brown, D.C. Reeves, Alicia Trawick, Ann Hill
Tallahassee Mayoral Election — 5 outcomes — listed May 16, 2026 at 2:57 PM ET
View market options (5 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Michael Foust | — |
| Loranne Ausley | — |
| Jeremy Matlow | — |
| Daryl Parks | — |
| Al Lawson | last 23¢ (book empty) |
Flint Mayoral Election — 5 outcomes — listed May 16, 2026 at 2:56 PM ET
View market options (5 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Tonya Burns | bid 1¢ / ask 8¢ |
| Sheldon Neeley | bid 76¢ / ask 83¢ |
| Roshanda Womack | bid 1¢ / ask 8¢ |
| Micaiah Owens | bid 1¢ / ask 8¢ |
| Beverly Biggs-Leavy | bid 1¢ / ask 8¢ |
Will Lauren Boebert be the CO-04 Republican nominee?: Yes (bid 94¢ / ask 99¢) — listed May 16, 2026 at 6:51 PM ET
Kansas Supreme Court Election Method Amendment: Yes (bid 35¢ / ask 54¢) — listed May 16, 2026 at 3:11 PM ET
Iceland EU Membership Negotiations Referendum: Yes — listed May 16, 2026 at 2:53 PM ET
Slovak Referendum on Lifelong Payments for Leaders: Yes — listed May 16, 2026 at 2:49 PM ET
Oregon Ballot Measure 120: Yes (bid 37¢ / ask 56¢) — listed May 16, 2026 at 2:48 PM ET
Oklahoma SQ 832 Minimum Wage Initiative: Yes (bid 55¢ / ask 74¢) — listed May 16, 2026 at 2:25 PM ET
🔄 Recurring Markets
371 recurring markets also launched — these are auto-generated daily/weekly/hourly brackets (weather, crypto prices, index levels, etc.).
| Category | Markets | Series | Top Series |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🌤️ Climate and Weather | 289 | 42 | Hourly Directional NYC Temperature, Low Temperature Oklahoma City, Low Temperature Houston, +39 more |
| 🎬 Entertainment | 61 | 5 | Daily US Spotify artist chart, Daily Global Spotify songs, Daily US Spotify chart Runner-up, +2 more |
| 📊 Economics | 11 | 1 | US flight cancellations this week |
| 🔬 Science and Technology | 10 | 1 | Top model |
All data sourced from the Kalshi public API. Prices shown are indicative Yes contract bid/ask at time of publication and may have moved. Trade responsibly.