📖 New here? How to read this post
Every day, new prediction markets launch on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade on real-world outcomes. Think of this post as a quick vibe check on what’s new in culture, politics, and the world — when you see markets pop up for the Oscars, a surprise album drop, Saturday Night Live hosts, or the next Fed decision, it tells you something about what people are paying attention to right now.
How to read this: On Kalshi, an event is the big question being asked — for example, “Who will win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?” Each event contains one or more markets, which are the specific yes-or-no outcomes you can actually trade — like “Will 1949 / Fatherland win Best Picture?” at a given price. When an event has numeric thresholds (“Will the S&P 500 close above 5,500?”), those individual levels are called brackets.
For each new event below, we include a link to find it on Kalshi so you can see live pricing. The first thing to do with any new market is understand the rules — then decide if you have an edge.
Here's every new market that launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours (Oct 03 at 6:30 PM ET through Oct 04 at 6:30 PM ET). Our scan picked up 217 unique markets across 28 new events, plus 1,023 recurring bracket markets.
⚡ What's Actionable Right Now
The launches from the past 24h with the tightest spreads and live two-sided quotes — i.e. the ones you can actually trade right now.
Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 5, 2026?: Below 37.9% bid 6¢ / ask 7¢, 38.5% bid 2¢ / ask 3¢, 38.4% bid 6¢ / ask 7¢
Generic congressional ballot on Oct 5, 2026?: Below 8.5%, 9.1%, 9.0% all at bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Diesel prices tomorrow: Above $6.360 bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Above $6.325 bid 90¢ / ask 91¢, Above $6.310 bid 97¢ / ask 98¢
Runner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Oct 5, 2026: Parvati bid 4¢ / ask 5¢, KALYANI (Remix) [YouTube video 6: xvT1jH8B9AM] bid 4¢ / ask 5¢, Yeshanagula | The Paradise | Nani | Keerthy Suresh | Anirudh Ravichander | Srikanth Odela bid 6¢ / ask 8¢
Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Oct 5, 2026: WTF GOIN bid 5¢ / ask 6¢, Music Teacher Asks if I Know Fleetwood Mac and Her Voice Shocks The Airport bid 2¢ / ask 4¢, James 1:17 (Jesus Is King) - Kid Rock [Official Music Video} bid 2¢ / ask 4¢
Amusement Parks Ad Spend in September: Above 145, Above 143, Above 141 all at bid 98¢ / ask 99¢
Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Oct 5, 2026: Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip bid 2¢ / ask 4¢, Dai Dai bid 52¢ / ask 80¢, Ashke (Music Video) Karan Aujla | Mxrci | Aujla Szn 1 ask 25¢ (no bids)
All Events — every new event from the past 24h, at a glance
- Which states will Democrats win a trifecta in 2026?
- Which states will Republicans win a trifecta in 2026?
- Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- Runner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Oct 5, 2026
- Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Oct 5, 2026
- Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Oct 5, 2026
- Generic congressional ballot on Oct 5, 2026?
- Trump Truth Social posts on Oct 4, 2026?
- Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 5, 2026?
- Anthropic share of requests on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel)
- Anthropic share of spend on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel)
- DeepSeek share of requests on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel)
- Google share of requests on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel)
- Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel)
- Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 8, 2026
- OpenAI share of requests on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel)
- OpenAI share of spend on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel)
- Abercrombie & Fitch Credit Card Spend in September
- Amazon Credit Card Spend in September
- Amusement Parks Ad Spend in September
- Dick's Sporting Goods Credit Card Spend in September
- Footwear Retail Ad Spend in September
- Home Depot Credit Card Spend in September
- Shake Shack Foot Traffic in September
- Sporting Goods Ad Spend in September
- Starbucks Credit Card Spend in September
All New Events
📊 Economics — 2 events, 28 markets
Diesel prices tomorrow — 21 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET
View market strikes (21 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above $6.395 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.390 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.385 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.380 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.375 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.370 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.365 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.360 | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Above $6.355 | bid 1¢ / ask 8¢ |
| Above $6.350 | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Above $6.345 | bid 2¢ / ask 7¢ |
| Above $6.340 | bid 20¢ / ask 23¢ |
| Above $6.335 | bid 31¢ / ask 34¢ |
| Above $6.330 | bid 11¢ / ask 56¢ |
| Above $6.325 | bid 90¢ / ask 91¢ |
| Above $6.320 | bid 89¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above $6.315 | bid 40¢ / ask 94¢ |
| Above $6.310 | bid 97¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above $6.305 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above $6.300 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Above $6.295 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
US retail jobs added this holiday season — 7 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 04, 2026 at 1:29 PM ET
🗳️ Elections — 3 events, 10 markets
Which states will Republicans win a trifecta in 2026? — 7 outcomes — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 1:39 PM ET
View market options (7 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Kansas | bid 65¢ / ask 74¢ |
| Texas | bid 67¢ / ask 76¢ |
| Florida | bid 83¢ / ask 92¢ |
| Georgia | bid 44¢ / ask 53¢ |
| New Hampshire | bid 11¢ / ask 20¢ |
| Iowa | bid 16¢ / ask 25¢ |
| Ohio | bid 40¢ / ask 49¢ |
Which states will Democrats win a trifecta in 2026? — 2 outcomes — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 1:39 PM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Oregon | bid 68¢ / ask 77¢ |
| Vermont | bid 21¢ / ask 30¢ |
Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?: John Kennedy (bid 11¢ / ask 20¢) — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 1:45 PM ET
🏛️ Politics — 3 events, 26 markets
Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 5, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Below 37.9% | bid 6¢ / ask 7¢ |
| 38.5% | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| 38.4% | bid 6¢ / ask 7¢ |
| 38.3% | bid 17¢ / ask 18¢ |
| 38.2% | bid 28¢ / ask 31¢ |
| 38.1% | bid 23¢ / ask 24¢ |
| 38.0% | bid 14¢ / ask 16¢ |
| 37.9% | bid 6¢ / ask 7¢ |
| Above 38.5% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
Generic congressional ballot on Oct 5, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Below 8.5% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| 9.1% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| 9.0% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| 8.9% | bid 15¢ / ask 16¢ |
| 8.8% | bid 33¢ / ask 35¢ |
| 8.7% | bid 15¢ / ask 16¢ |
| 8.6% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| 8.5% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Above 9.1% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
Trump Truth Social posts on Oct 4, 2026? — 8 outcomes — listed Oct 03, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
View market options (8 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| <5 | ask 10¢ (no bids) |
| 40+ | — |
| 5-9 | ask 10¢ (no bids) |
| 30-39 | — |
| 25-29 | — |
| 20-24 | — |
| 15-19 | — |
| 10-14 | — |
🎬 Entertainment — 3 events, 45 markets
Runner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Oct 5, 2026 — 15 outcomes — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET
View market options (15 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Yeshanagula | The Paradise | Nani | Keerthy Suresh | Anirudh Ravichander | Srikanth Odela | bid 6¢ / ask 8¢ |
| Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip | bid 19¢ / ask 29¢ |
| Training Season (Live) | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Shararat | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Radhimaa [From "Think Indie"] | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Parvati | bid 4¢ / ask 5¢ |
| KALYANI (Remix) [YouTube video 12: z5y8Clp_TdE] | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| KALYANI (Remix) [YouTube video 6: xvT1jH8B9AM] | bid 4¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Dai Dai | bid 21¢ / ask 23¢ |
| Casa Tupka Anthemo | bid 14¢ / ask 25¢ |
| BbY WOW | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Basinga Balaalu | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Barsaat | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Ashke (Music Video) Karan Aujla | Mxrci | Aujla Szn 1 | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Aaya Sher | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Oct 5, 2026 — 15 outcomes — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET
View market options (15 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Yeshanagula | The Paradise | Nani | Keerthy Suresh | Anirudh Ravichander | Srikanth Odela | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip | bid 2¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Training Season (Live) | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Shararat | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Radhimaa [From "Think Indie"] | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Parvati | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| KALYANI (Remix) [YouTube video 12: z5y8Clp_TdE] | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| KALYANI (Remix) [YouTube video 6: xvT1jH8B9AM] | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Dai Dai | bid 52¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Casa Tupka Anthemo | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| BbY WOW | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Basinga Balaalu | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Barsaat | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Ashke (Music Video) Karan Aujla | Mxrci | Aujla Szn 1 | ask 25¢ (no bids) |
| Aaya Sher | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Oct 5, 2026 — 15 outcomes — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET
View market options (15 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| WTF GOIN | bid 5¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Ricardo Arjona y Grupo Firme - Amor Factura (Video Oficial) @ArjonaOficial @GrupoFirmeOficial | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Music Teacher Asks if I Know Fleetwood Mac and Her Voice Shocks The Airport | bid 2¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Menor | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Janice STFU | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| James 1:17 (Jesus Is King) - Kid Rock [Official Music Video} | bid 2¢ / ask 4¢ |
| HOTEL LOBBY (Unc & Phew) (- A COLORS SHOW) | bid 2¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Draw You Out (From The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping - The Album) | bid 5¢ / ask 7¢ |
| Dexter and The Moonrocks - Why Don’t You Say So (feat. Avery Anna) (Official Music Video) | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Dai Dai | bid 21¢ / ask 39¢ |
| Choosin' Texas [YouTube video 10: hLOheGDwD_0] | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Choosin' Texas [YouTube video 4: nUsrYVxrDwI] | bid 16¢ / ask 45¢ |
| BbY WOW | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Alma Rota | bid 2¢ / ask 4¢ |
| 2008 | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
🔬 Science and Technology — 8 events, 72 markets
Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 8, 2026 — 9 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 74.9% | bid 1¢ / ask 54¢ |
| Above 71.3% | bid 1¢ / ask 58¢ |
| Above 69.7% | bid 3¢ / ask 54¢ |
| Above 68.7% | bid 5¢ / ask 84¢ |
| Above 66.8% | bid 3¢ / ask 75¢ |
| Above 62.2% | bid 20¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Above 58.1% | bid 17¢ / ask 90¢ |
| Above 55.2% | bid 21¢ / ask 90¢ |
| Above 49.2% | bid 46¢ / ask 98¢ |
Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 8.4% | bid 27¢ / ask 71¢ |
| Above 5.3% | bid 51¢ / ask 90¢ |
| Above 3.8% | bid 53¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above 3.1% | bid 68¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above 18.4% | bid 3¢ / ask 30¢ |
| Above 16.2% | bid 5¢ / ask 56¢ |
| Above 14.6% | bid 15¢ / ask 50¢ |
| Above 12.3% | bid 20¢ / ask 71¢ |
| Above 10.6% | bid 25¢ / ask 71¢ |
OpenAI share of spend on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 04, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET
Anthropic share of spend on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 04, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET
Google share of requests on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 9.9% | bid 68¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above 17.4% | bid 7¢ / ask 55¢ |
| Above 16.8% | bid 10¢ / ask 63¢ |
| Above 16.2% | bid 16¢ / ask 63¢ |
| Above 15.5% | bid 16¢ / ask 70¢ |
| Above 14.1% | bid 31¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Above 13.1% | bid 50¢ / ask 90¢ |
| Above 12.0% | bid 52¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above 11.0% | bid 63¢ / ask 95¢ |
OpenAI share of requests on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 29.5% | bid 6¢ / ask 40¢ |
| Above 28.2% | bid 11¢ / ask 59¢ |
| Above 27.7% | bid 23¢ / ask 63¢ |
| Above 26.4% | bid 25¢ / ask 70¢ |
| Above 26.2% | bid 17¢ / ask 70¢ |
| Above 24.9% | bid 28¢ / ask 72¢ |
| Above 24.4% | bid 47¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above 22.1% | bid 55¢ / ask 97¢ |
| Above 19.3% | bid 72¢ / ask 98¢ |
Anthropic share of requests on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 04, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET
DeepSeek share of requests on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 21.7% | bid 1¢ / ask 29¢ |
| Above 16.5% | bid 6¢ / ask 40¢ |
| Above 15.0% | bid 11¢ / ask 50¢ |
| Above 14.2% | bid 25¢ / ask 60¢ |
| Above 13.4% | bid 25¢ / ask 70¢ |
| Above 12.2% | bid 39¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Above 11.8% | bid 41¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Above 10.9% | bid 60¢ / ask 92¢ |
| Above 10.0% | bid 72¢ / ask 97¢ |
💹 Financials — 9 events, 36 markets
Amazon Credit Card Spend in September — 6 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 2:01 PM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 120 | bid 36¢ / ask 50¢ |
| Above 124 | bid 20¢ / ask 35¢ |
| Above 128 | bid 9¢ / ask 24¢ |
| Above 132 | bid 1¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above 136 | bid 1¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above 140 | bid 1¢ / ask 8¢ |
Footwear Retail Ad Spend in September — 6 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 1:01 AM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 82 | bid 2¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above 80 | bid 4¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above 78 | bid 39¢ / ask 47¢ |
| Above 76 | bid 47¢ / ask 63¢ |
| Above 74 | bid 76¢ / ask 92¢ |
| Above 72 | bid 59¢ / ask 96¢ |
Amusement Parks Ad Spend in September — 6 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 12:01 AM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 135 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 137 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 139 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 141 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 143 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 145 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
Shake Shack Foot Traffic in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 6:02 PM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 100 | bid 11¢ / ask 88¢ |
| Above 99 | bid 11¢ (no asks) |
| Above 98 | bid 12¢ (no asks) |
Home Depot Credit Card Spend in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 6:01 PM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 114 | ask 89¢ (no bids) |
| Above 117 | ask 92¢ (no bids) |
| Above 120 | ask 87¢ (no bids) |
Dick's Sporting Goods Credit Card Spend in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 6:01 PM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 106 | ask 86¢ (no bids) |
| Above 110 | ask 83¢ (no bids) |
| Above 114 | bid 1¢ / ask 81¢ |
Abercrombie & Fitch Credit Card Spend in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 5:03 PM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 112 | bid 1¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above 116 | ask 93¢ (no bids) |
| Above 120 | ask 93¢ (no bids) |
Starbucks Credit Card Spend in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 3:01 PM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 108 | bid 5¢ / ask 69¢ |
| Above 111 | bid 2¢ / ask 62¢ |
| Above 114 | bid 2¢ / ask 67¢ |
Sporting Goods Ad Spend in September — 3 brackets — listed Oct 04, 2026 at 12:01 AM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 122 | bid 2¢ / ask 30¢ |
| Above 124 | bid 2¢ / ask 30¢ |
| Above 126 | bid 2¢ / ask 12¢ |
🔄 Recurring Markets
1,023 recurring markets also launched — these are auto-generated daily/weekly/hourly brackets (weather, crypto prices, index levels, etc.).
| Category | Markets | Series | Top Series |
|---|---|---|---|
| 📊 Economics | 613 | 33 | Ohio gas price, Georgia gas price, New Jersey gas prices, +30 more |
| 🌤️ Climate and Weather | 368 | 54 | Where will it rain daily, Hourly Directional Coastal LA Temperature, Hourly Directional Chicago Metro Temperature, +51 more |
| 🎬 Entertainment | 42 | 6 | DAILY TOP YOUTUBE VIDEO, Will Album be runner up this week?, Billboard Top 200 #1, +3 more |
All data sourced from the Kalshi public API. Prices shown are indicative Yes contract bid/ask at time of publication and may have moved. Trade responsibly.