Kalshi Markets: Trump's Approval, Diesel, Tesla Costs

📖 New here? How to read this post

Every day, new prediction markets launch on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade on real-world outcomes. Think of this post as a quick vibe check on what’s new in culture, politics, and the world — when you see markets pop up for the Oscars, a surprise album drop, Saturday Night Live hosts, or the next Fed decision, it tells you something about what people are paying attention to right now.

How to read this: On Kalshi, an event is the big question being asked — for example, “Who will win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?” Each event contains one or more markets, which are the specific yes-or-no outcomes you can actually trade — like “Will 1949 / Fatherland win Best Picture?” at a given price. When an event has numeric thresholds (“Will the S&P 500 close above 5,500?”), those individual levels are called brackets.

For each new event below, we include a link to find it on Kalshi so you can see live pricing. The first thing to do with any new market is understand the rules — then decide if you have an edge.

Here's every new market that launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours (Oct 02 at 6:30 PM ET through Oct 03 at 6:30 PM ET). Our scan picked up 209 unique markets across 104 new events, plus 998 recurring bracket markets.

📊 Economics

1 event

21 markets

🔬 Science and Technology

1 event

33 markets

🏛️ Politics

4 events

27 markets

🎬 Entertainment

7 events

7 markets

💹 Financials

91 events

121 markets

⚡ What's Actionable Right Now

The launches from the past 24h with the tightest spreads and live two-sided quotes — i.e. the ones you can actually trade right now.

Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 4, 2026?: Below 37.9% bid 6¢ / ask 7¢, 38.5% bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, 38.4% bid 1¢ / ask 2¢

Diesel prices tomorrow: Above $6.355 bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Above $6.325 bid 97¢ / ask 98¢, Above $6.330 bid 93¢ / ask 95¢

How much will the Tesla Roadster cost?: At least $275,000 bid 21¢ / ask 22¢, At least $150,000 bid 86¢ / ask 87¢, At least $300,000 bid 15¢ / ask 17¢

Footwear Retail Ad Spend in September: Above 88 bid 2¢ / ask 7¢, Above 86 bid 3¢ / ask 10¢, Above 84 bid 7¢ / ask 39¢

Rogue Point of Sale Growth in October: Above 79 bid 12¢ / ask 19¢, Above 77 bid 13¢ / ask 25¢, Above 75 bid 15¢ / ask 29¢

Streaming Ad Spend in September: Above 80 bid 90¢ / ask 98¢, Above 81 bid 71¢ / ask 85¢, Above 82 bid 53¢ / ask 68¢

Sporting Goods Ad Spend in September: Above 114 bid 78¢ / ask 92¢, Above 120 bid 24¢ / ask 42¢, Above 118 bid 31¢ / ask 54¢

All Events — every new event from the past 24h, at a glance

📊 Economics

Diesel prices tomorrow

🔬 Science and Technology

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?

🏛️ Politics

🎬 Entertainment

💹 Financials

All New Events

📊 Economics — 1 event, 21 markets

Diesel prices tomorrow — 21 brackets — listed Oct 03, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET

View market strikes (21 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above $6.405	last 1¢ (book empty)
Above $6.400	last 1¢ (book empty)
Above $6.395	last 1¢ (book empty)
Above $6.390	last 1¢ (book empty)
Above $6.385	last 1¢ (book empty)
Above $6.380	last 1¢ (book empty)
Above $6.375	last 1¢ (book empty)
Above $6.370	last 1¢ (book empty)
Above $6.365	last 1¢ (book empty)
Above $6.360	last 1¢ (book empty)
Above $6.355	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Above $6.350	bid 2¢ / ask 6¢
Above $6.345	bid 14¢ / ask 17¢
Above $6.340	bid 41¢ / ask 44¢
Above $6.335	bid 67¢ / ask 70¢
Above $6.330	bid 93¢ / ask 95¢
Above $6.325	bid 97¢ / ask 98¢
Above $6.320	bid 96¢ / ask 99¢
Above $6.315	bid 99¢ (no asks)
Above $6.310	bid 99¢ (no asks)
Above $6.305	bid 99¢ (no asks)

🔬 Science and Technology — 1 event, 33 markets

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? — 33 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 03, 2026 at 11:43 AM ET

Tracking: Z AI, Xiaomi, xAI, Upstage, Thinking Machines, Tencent, StepFun, Safe Superintelligence, Reflection AI, Prime Intellect, OpenAI, NVIDIA, Mistral, Microsoft, Moonshot, MiniMax, Meta, LongCat, LG AI Research, Inception, InclusionAI, Institute of Foundation Models, Huawei, Google, Essential AI, +8 more

🔗 View on Kalshi →

🏛️ Politics — 4 events, 27 markets

Generic congressional ballot on Oct 4, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Oct 03, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET

View market strikes (9 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Below 8.5%	bid 2¢ / ask 75¢
9.1%	ask 89¢ (no bids)
9.0%	ask 89¢ (no bids)
8.9%	ask 86¢ (no bids)
8.8%	bid 6¢ (no asks)
8.7%	bid 4¢ / ask 82¢
8.6%	bid 2¢ / ask 79¢
8.5%	ask 88¢ (no bids)
Above 9.1%	bid 2¢ / ask 75¢

Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 4, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Oct 03, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET

View market strikes (9 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Below 37.9%	bid 6¢ / ask 7¢
38.5%	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
38.4%	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
38.3%	bid 5¢ / ask 6¢
38.2%	bid 40¢ / ask 41¢
38.1%	bid 24¢ / ask 26¢
38.0%	bid 11¢ / ask 12¢
37.9%	bid 5¢ / ask 6¢
Above 38.5%	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢

Trump Truth Social posts on Oct 3, 2026? — 8 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 02, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

Tracking: <5, 40+, 5-9, 30-39, 25-29, 20-24, 15-19, 10-14

🔗 View on Kalshi →

Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?: Beni Rae Harmony (last 1¢ (book empty)) — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 7:08 PM ET

🎬 Entertainment — 7 events, 7 markets

Pikachu ex - 109 (30th Celebration) Up or Down: Oct 2026: Above $299.99 (bid 30¢ / ask 53¢) — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET

Mew ex Up or Down: Oct 2026: Above $84.4 (bid 32¢ / ask 70¢) — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET

Charizard Up or Down: Oct 2026: Above $194.14 (bid 23¢ / ask 44¢) — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET

Mew - R/RGB Up or Down: Oct 2026: Above $6000.27 (bid 22¢ / ask 59¢) — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET

Mew - G/RGB Up or Down: Oct 2026: Above $3738.75 (bid 23¢ / ask 77¢) — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET

Mew - B/RGB Up or Down: Oct 2026: Above $5010.87 (bid 24¢ / ask 60¢) — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET

30th Celebration Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box Up or Down: Oct 2026: Above $313.44 (bid 38¢ / ask 55¢) — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET

💹 Financials — 91 events, 121 markets

How much will the Tesla Roadster cost? — 7 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 7:25 PM ET

View market strikes (7 brackets)

Bracket	Price
At least $300,000	bid 15¢ / ask 17¢
At least $275,000	bid 21¢ / ask 22¢
At least $250,000	bid 34¢ / ask 40¢
At least $225,000	bid 45¢ / ask 49¢
At least $200,000	bid 64¢ / ask 68¢
At least $175,000	bid 78¢ / ask 81¢
At least $150,000	bid 86¢ / ask 87¢

Casino Ad Spend in September — 6 brackets — listed Oct 03, 2026 at 6:01 AM ET

View market strikes (6 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 73	bid 15¢ / ask 72¢
Above 72	bid 17¢ / ask 73¢
Above 71	bid 43¢ / ask 72¢
Above 70	bid 8¢ / ask 87¢
Above 69	bid 8¢ (no asks)
Above 68	bid 8¢ / ask 87¢

Sporting Goods Ad Spend in September — 6 brackets — listed Oct 02, 2026 at 10:01 PM ET

View market strikes (6 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 110	bid 69¢ / ask 95¢
Above 112	bid 63¢ / ask 91¢
Above 114	bid 78¢ / ask 92¢
Above 116	bid 49¢ / ask 78¢
Above 118	bid 31¢ / ask 54¢
Above 120	bid 24¢ / ask 42¢

C4 Energy Point of Sale Growth in October — 3 brackets — listed Oct 03, 2026 at 6:01 PM ET