📖 New here? How to read this post
Every day, new prediction markets launch on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade on real-world outcomes. Think of this post as a quick vibe check on what’s new in culture, politics, and the world — when you see markets pop up for the Oscars, a surprise album drop, Saturday Night Live hosts, or the next Fed decision, it tells you something about what people are paying attention to right now.
How to read this: On Kalshi, an event is the big question being asked — for example, “Who will win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?” Each event contains one or more markets, which are the specific yes-or-no outcomes you can actually trade — like “Will 1949 / Fatherland win Best Picture?” at a given price. When an event has numeric thresholds (“Will the S&P 500 close above 5,500?”), those individual levels are called brackets.
For each new event below, we include a link to find it on Kalshi so you can see live pricing. The first thing to do with any new market is understand the rules — then decide if you have an edge.
Here's every new market that launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours (May 21 at 6:30 PM ET through May 22 at 6:30 PM ET). Our scan picked up 223 unique markets across 45 new events, plus 647 recurring bracket markets.
⚡ What's Actionable Right Now
The launches from the past 24h with the tightest spreads and live two-sided quotes — i.e. the ones you can actually trade right now.
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?: Amaryllis Fox Kennedy bid 5¢ / ask 5¢, Elise Stefanik bid 21¢ / ask 23¢, Richard Grenell bid 15¢ / ask 17¢
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?: Pete Hegseth bid 17¢ / ask 18¢, Marco Rubio bid 2¢ / ask 3¢, Markwayne Mullin bid 3¢ / ask 4¢
Hims & Hers subscribers in Q2: Above 2.96 million bid 50¢ / ask 51¢, Above 3.00 million bid 31¢ / ask 33¢, Above 2.92 million bid 60¢ / ask 63¢
Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (5/22-5/29)?: Above 7.4% — bid 63¢ / ask 64¢
Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026: Above 2.4%, Above 2.2%, Above 2.0% all at bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026: Above 0.9% bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Above 0.8% bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Above 0.7% bid 2¢ / ask 3¢
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. passengers carried in Q2 2026: Above 885 thousand bid 38¢ / ask 39¢, Above 915 thousand bid 14¢ / ask 18¢, Above 855 thousand bid 62¢ / ask 66¢
All Events — every new event from the past 24h, at a glance
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- FL-23 Republican nominee?
- Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (5/22-5/29)?
- MI-13 Republican nominee?
- Oscar nominations for Best Music (Original Score)?
- Oscar nominations for Best Supporting Actor?
- Who will have a #1 song on Spotify Global in May?
- Who will release a new album in 2026?
- Costco hot dog price increase
- EV commodity prices on May 22, 2026
- Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026
- Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026
- Will another White House Correspondents' Dinner be held in 2026?
- CAVA restaurants in Q2
- Ferrari total shipments in Q2
- Hims & Hers subscribers in Q2
- Home Depot customer transactions in Q2
- Marriott International total rooms in Q2
- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. passengers carried in Q2 2026
- Roblox Corporation hours engaged in Q2 2026
- Target transactions change in Q2
- Toll Brothers delivered homes in Q3
- Urban Outfitters total stores in Q2
- Wyndham Hotels total rooms in Q2
- How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (5/24-5/30)
- Jessica Tisch out as NYPD commissioner?
- Trump late night post this week? (5/24-5/30)
- When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?
- When will Trump's Attorney General pick be announced?
- When will Trump's Director of National Intelligence pick be announced?
- Which bills will become law in 2026?
- Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026?
- Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?
- Who will join the Trump administration before July?
- Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
- Will anyone receive payment from Trump’s Anti-Weaponization Fund in 2026?
- Will construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch in 2026?
- Will Daylight Saving Time become permanent in 2026?
- Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (5/24 - 5/30)
- Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/25-5/31)
- Will Trump talk to a sitting Supreme Court justice?
- Will Trump win his BBC lawsuit?
All New Events
🔬 Science and Technology — 3 events, 18 markets
Top Coding AI this week — 9 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · May 22, 2026 at 1:48 PM ET
Tracking: Qwen, MiniMax, Kimi, Grok, GLM, Gemini, Dola, Claude, ChatGPT
Best AI this week? — 8 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · May 22, 2026 at 12:02 PM ET
Tracking: Grok, ChatGPT, Muse, Gemini, Dola, Claude, Amazon Nova, Qwen
SpaceX Starship 12th launch?: Before May 27 (bid 92¢ / ask 96¢) — listed May 22, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET
🎬 Entertainment — 4 events, 4 markets
Who will release a new album in 2026?: Rüfüs Du Sol (bid 56¢ / ask 74¢) — listed May 22, 2026 at 1:45 PM ET
Oscar nominations for Best Supporting Actor?: Daniel Craig (bid 16¢ / ask 24¢) — listed May 22, 2026 at 1:22 PM ET
Oscar nominations for Best Music (Original Score)?: The Mandalorian and Grogu (bid 1¢ / ask 9¢) — listed May 22, 2026 at 1:17 PM ET
Who will have a #1 song on Spotify Global in May?: Kendrick Lamar — listed May 22, 2026 at 1:13 PM ET
🗳️ Elections — 4 events, 5 markets
MI-13 Republican nominee? — 2 outcomes — listed May 22, 2026 at 10:36 AM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Articia Bomer | bid 2¢ / ask 43¢ |
| Andrew Lorenz | bid 2¢ / ask 43¢ |
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Rahm Emanuel — listed May 22, 2026 at 5:55 PM ET
FL-23 Republican nominee?: Darlene Cerezo Swaffar (bid 2¢ / ask 54¢) — listed May 22, 2026 at 10:35 AM ET
Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (5/22-5/29)?: Above 7.4% (bid 63¢ / ask 64¢) — listed May 22, 2026 at 10:14 AM ET
📊 Economics — 5 events, 48 markets
Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026 — 15 brackets — listed May 22, 2026 at 8:03 AM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 2.4% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Above 2.2% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Above 2.0% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Above 1.8% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Above 1.6% | bid 5¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above 1.4% | bid 7¢ / ask 15¢ |
| Above 1.2% | bid 5¢ / ask 15¢ |
| Above 1.0% | bid 13¢ / ask 19¢ |
| Above 0.8% | bid 23¢ / ask 28¢ |
| Above 0.6% | bid 36¢ / ask 45¢ |
| Above 0.4% | bid 67¢ / ask 68¢ |
| Above -0.4% | bid 97¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above 0.2% | bid 78¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Above -0.2% | bid 95¢ / ask 97¢ |
| Above 0.0% | bid 83¢ / ask 84¢ |
Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 — 15 brackets — listed May 22, 2026 at 8:03 AM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 0.9% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Above 0.8% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Above 0.7% | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Above 0.6% | bid 5¢ / ask 12¢ |
| Above 0.5% | bid 10¢ / ask 13¢ |
| Above -0.5% | bid 92¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above 0.4% | bid 5¢ / ask 8¢ |
| Above -0.4% | bid 93¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above 0.3% | bid 21¢ / ask 23¢ |
| Above -0.3% | bid 88¢ / ask 89¢ |
| Above 0.2% | bid 24¢ / ask 25¢ |
| Above -0.2% | bid 67¢ / ask 71¢ |
| Above 0.1% | bid 32¢ / ask 38¢ |
| Above -0.1% | bid 57¢ / ask 69¢ |
| Above 0.0% | bid 53¢ / ask 57¢ |
EV commodity prices on May 22, 2026 — 15 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 8:01 PM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 1329.32 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1319.32 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1309.32 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1299.32 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1289.32 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1279.32 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1269.32 | bid 1¢ / ask 10¢ |
| Above 1259.32 | bid 88¢ / ask 93¢ |
| Above 1249.32 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1239.32 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1229.32 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1219.32 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1209.32 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1199.32 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1189.32 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
Costco hot dog price increase — 2 outcomes — listed May 22, 2026 at 10:24 AM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Before 2029 | bid 32¢ / ask 39¢ |
| Before 2030 | bid 49¢ / ask 56¢ |
Will another White House Correspondents' Dinner be held in 2026?: In 2026 (bid 77¢ / ask 84¢) — listed May 22, 2026 at 11:29 AM ET
💹 Financials — 11 events, 67 markets
Urban Outfitters total stores in Q2 — 7 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 7:57 PM ET
View market strikes (7 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 818 | bid 8¢ / ask 11¢ |
| Above 816 | bid 13¢ / ask 14¢ |
| Above 814 | bid 17¢ / ask 19¢ |
| Above 812 | bid 28¢ / ask 34¢ |
| Above 810 | bid 54¢ / ask 59¢ |
| Above 808 | bid 77¢ / ask 79¢ |
| Above 806 | bid 89¢ / ask 90¢ |
Home Depot customer transactions in Q2 — 7 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 7:57 PM ET
View market strikes (7 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 450 million | bid 17¢ / ask 21¢ |
| Above 440 million | bid 81¢ / ask 86¢ |
| Above 430 million | bid 84¢ / ask 90¢ |
| Above 420 million | bid 89¢ / ask 93¢ |
| Above 410 million | bid 93¢ / ask 96¢ |
| Above 400 million | bid 93¢ / ask 96¢ |
| Above 390 million | bid 93¢ / ask 94¢ |
Target transactions change in Q2 — 7 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 7:57 PM ET
View market strikes (7 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 5% | bid 21¢ / ask 23¢ |
| Above 4.5% | bid 23¢ / ask 29¢ |
| Above 4% | bid 31¢ / ask 37¢ |
| Above 3.5% | bid 45¢ / ask 51¢ |
| Above 3% | bid 59¢ / ask 64¢ |
| Above 2.5% | bid 70¢ / ask 75¢ |
| Above 2% | bid 77¢ / ask 83¢ |
Roblox Corporation hours engaged in Q2 2026 — 7 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 7:56 PM ET
View market strikes (7 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 38 billion | bid 5¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above 37 billion | bid 16¢ / ask 19¢ |
| Above 36 billion | bid 34¢ / ask 35¢ |
| Above 35 billion | bid 49¢ / ask 54¢ |
| Above 34 billion | bid 61¢ / ask 62¢ |
| Above 33 billion | bid 77¢ / ask 81¢ |
| Above 32 billion | bid 91¢ / ask 94¢ |
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. passengers carried in Q2 2026 — 6 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 7:57 PM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 915 thousand | bid 14¢ / ask 18¢ |
| Above 900 thousand | bid 23¢ / ask 28¢ |
| Above 885 thousand | bid 38¢ / ask 39¢ |
| Above 870 thousand | bid 45¢ / ask 51¢ |
| Above 855 thousand | bid 62¢ / ask 66¢ |
| Above 840 thousand | bid 72¢ / ask 77¢ |
Toll Brothers delivered homes in Q3 — 6 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 7:57 PM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 3100 | bid 5¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above 3000 | bid 8¢ / ask 9¢ |
| Above 2900 | bid 16¢ / ask 17¢ |
| Above 2800 | bid 23¢ / ask 24¢ |
| Above 2700 | bid 48¢ / ask 53¢ |
| Above 2600 | bid 72¢ / ask 75¢ |
Wyndham Hotels total rooms in Q2 — 6 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 7:56 PM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 885 thousand | bid 10¢ / ask 11¢ |
| Above 882 thousand | bid 16¢ / ask 20¢ |
| Above 879 thousand | bid 34¢ / ask 40¢ |
| Above 876 thousand | bid 55¢ / ask 62¢ |
| Above 873 thousand | bid 68¢ / ask 75¢ |
| Above 870 thousand | bid 83¢ / ask 88¢ |
Ferrari total shipments in Q2 — 6 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 7:56 PM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 3550 | bid 11¢ / ask 15¢ |
| Above 3500 | bid 17¢ / ask 18¢ |
| Above 3450 | bid 29¢ / ask 34¢ |
| Above 3400 | bid 41¢ / ask 48¢ |
| Above 3350 | bid 73¢ / ask 74¢ |
| Above 3300 | bid 82¢ / ask 87¢ |
Hims & Hers subscribers in Q2 — 5 brackets — listed May 22, 2026 at 11:52 AM ET
View market strikes (5 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 2.88 million | bid 69¢ / ask 73¢ |
| Above 2.92 million | bid 60¢ / ask 63¢ |
| Above 2.96 million | bid 50¢ / ask 51¢ |
| Above 3.00 million | bid 31¢ / ask 33¢ |
| Above 3.04 million | bid 16¢ / ask 23¢ |
CAVA restaurants in Q2 — 5 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 7:56 PM ET
View market strikes (5 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 490 | bid 10¢ / ask 11¢ |
| Above 485 | bid 14¢ / ask 18¢ |
| Above 480 | bid 26¢ / ask 33¢ |
| Above 475 | bid 79¢ / ask 85¢ |
| Above 470 | bid 97¢ / ask 98¢ |
Marriott International total rooms in Q2 — 5 brackets — listed May 21, 2026 at 7:56 PM ET
View market strikes (5 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 1.825 million | bid 9¢ / ask 11¢ |
| Above 1.82 million | bid 19¢ / ask 23¢ |
| Above 1.815 million | bid 34¢ / ask 39¢ |
| Above 1.81 million | bid 66¢ / ask 73¢ |
| Above 1.805 million | bid 82¢ / ask 87¢ |
🏛️ Politics — 18 events, 81 markets
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? — 21 outcomes — listed May 22, 2026 at 1:45 PM ET
View market options (21 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Susie Wiles | bid 7¢ / ask 13¢ |
| Scott Turner | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Sean Duffy | bid 12¢ / ask 19¢ |
| Scott Bessent | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Russell Vought | bid 1¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | bid 7¢ / ask 12¢ |
| Pete Hegseth | bid 17¢ / ask 18¢ |
| Mike Waltz | bid 2¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Marco Rubio | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Markwayne Mullin | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Michael Kratsios | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Lee Zeldin | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Linda McMahon | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Kelly Loeffler | bid 2¢ / ask 6¢ |
| John Ratcliffe | bid 2¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Jamieson Greer | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Howard Lutnick | bid 30¢ / ask 36¢ |
| Doug Collins | bid 2¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Doug Burgum | bid 2¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Chris Wright | bid 7¢ / ask 14¢ |
| Brooke Rollins | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? — 18 outcomes — listed May 22, 2026 at 2:02 PM ET
View market options (18 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Tom Cotton | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Stephen Miller | — |
| Sebastian Gorka | — |
| Stacey Dixon | — |
| Richard Grenell | bid 15¢ / ask 17¢ |
| Mike Waltz | — |
| Mike Flynn | bid 1¢ / ask 7¢ |
| Michael Ellis | — |
| Kash Patel | — |
| John Ratcliffe | bid 1¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Devin Nunes | bid 29¢ / ask 31¢ |
| Derek Harvey | — |
| Chris Stewart | — |
| Aaron Lukas | bid 30¢ / ask 32¢ |
| Amaryllis Fox Kennedy | bid 5¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Elise Stefanik | bid 21¢ / ask 23¢ |
| Scott Perry | last 8¢ (book empty) |
| Rick Crawford | — |
When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave? — 8 outcomes — listed May 22, 2026 at 1:52 PM ET
View market options (8 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Before Jan 2027 | bid 78¢ / ask 82¢ |
| Before Sep 2026 | bid 37¢ / ask 44¢ |
| Before Oct 2026 | bid 47¢ / ask 54¢ |
| Before Nov 2026 | bid 57¢ / ask 64¢ |
| Before Jun 2026 | bid 3¢ / ask 7¢ |
| Before Jul 2026 | bid 18¢ / ask 24¢ |
| Before Dec 2026 | bid 67¢ / ask 74¢ |
| Before Aug 2026 | bid 27¢ / ask 34¢ |
How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (5/24-5/30) — 7 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · May 22, 2026 at 10:24 AM ET
When will Trump's Director of National Intelligence pick be announced? — 6 outcomes — listed May 22, 2026 at 2:12 PM ET
View market options (6 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | bid 34¢ / ask 41¢ |
| Before May 25, 2026 | bid 2¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Before Jun 15, 2026 | bid 7¢ / ask 14¢ |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | bid 3¢ / ask 9¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | bid 20¢ / ask 26¢ |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | bid 21¢ / ask 29¢ |
Trump late night post this week? (5/24-5/30) — 5 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · May 22, 2026 at 10:24 AM ET
Tracking: 5-6 AM, 4-5 AM, 3-4 AM, 2-3 AM, 1-2 AM
Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026? — 2 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · May 22, 2026 at 5:59 PM ET
Tracking: Uganda, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Will Trump talk to a sitting Supreme Court justice? — 2 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · May 22, 2026 at 12:18 PM ET
Tracking: Before Jan 1, 2027, Before Aug 1, 2026
Will Daylight Saving Time become permanent in 2026? — 2 outcomes — listed May 22, 2026 at 11:42 AM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | bid 17¢ / ask 24¢ |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | bid 23¢ / ask 32¢ |
Which bills will become law in 2026? — 2 outcomes — listed May 22, 2026 at 10:56 AM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Jewish American security | bid 52¢ / ask 59¢ |
| College sports federalization | bid 22¢ / ask 29¢ |
Jessica Tisch out as NYPD commissioner?: Before Jul 1, 2026 (bid 29¢ / ask 44¢) — listed May 22, 2026 at 11:28 AM ET
Will construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch in 2026?: Before Jan 1, 2027 (bid 53¢ / ask 57¢) — listed May 22, 2026 at 11:18 AM ET
Will Trump win his BBC lawsuit?: Before 2028 (bid 19¢ / ask 24¢) — listed May 22, 2026 at 11:17 AM ET
Who will join the Trump administration before July?: Nate Morris (bid 2¢ / ask 9¢) — listed May 22, 2026 at 11:08 AM ET
Will anyone receive payment from Trump’s Anti-Weaponization Fund in 2026?: Before Jan 1, 2027 (bid 28¢ / ask 32¢) — listed May 22, 2026 at 11:06 AM ET
When will Trump's Attorney General pick be announced?: Before Jan 1, 2027 (bid 77¢ / ask 84¢) — listed May 22, 2026 at 11:05 AM ET
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/25-5/31): Yes — listed May 22, 2026 at 10:24 AM ET
Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (5/24 - 5/30): Above 0 — listed May 22, 2026 at 10:24 AM ET
🔄 Recurring Markets
647 recurring markets also launched — these are auto-generated daily/weekly/hourly brackets (weather, crypto prices, index levels, etc.).
| Category | Markets | Series | Top Series |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🌤️ Climate and Weather | 289 | 42 | Hourly Directional NYC Temperature, Low Temperature Oklahoma City, Low Temperature Houston, +39 more |
| 📊 Economics | 128 | 9 | US gas price up, Germany Ifo Business Climate, Truflation AI & DePIN Index, +6 more |
| 🎬 Entertainment | 111 | 10 | Daily US Spotify chart Runner-up, Daily US Spotify chart, Daily Global Spotify songs, +7 more |
| 💹 Financials | 75 | 3 | S&P 500 range, Nasdaq range, Treasury 10Y weekly yield |
| 🏛️ Politics | 29 | 5 | Number of Trump Truth Social posts this week?, Will Trump do anything today?, President RCP approval rating this week, +2 more |
| 🔬 Science and Technology | 15 | 6 | Top model, RTX 5090 Weekly Price, B200 Weekly Price, +3 more |
All data sourced from the Kalshi public API. Prices shown are indicative Yes contract bid/ask at time of publication and may have moved. Trade responsibly.