Kalshi Market Updates: Trump, Uber Eats, USD/JPY

📖 New here? How to read this post

Every day, new prediction markets launch on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade on real-world outcomes. Think of this post as a quick vibe check on what’s new in culture, politics, and the world — when you see markets pop up for the Oscars, a surprise album drop, Saturday Night Live hosts, or the next Fed decision, it tells you something about what people are paying attention to right now.

How to read this: On Kalshi, an event is the big question being asked — for example, “Who will win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?” Each event contains one or more markets, which are the specific yes-or-no outcomes you can actually trade — like “Will 1949 / Fatherland win Best Picture?” at a given price. When an event has numeric thresholds (“Will the S&P 500 close above 5,500?”), those individual levels are called brackets.

For each new event below, we include a link to find it on Kalshi so you can see live pricing. The first thing to do with any new market is understand the rules — then decide if you have an edge.

Here's every new market that launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours (Oct 14 at 6:30 PM ET through Oct 15 at 6:30 PM ET). Our scan picked up 317 unique markets across 147 new events, plus 6,609 recurring bracket markets.

🔬 Science and Technology

1 event

18 markets

🗳️ Elections

2 events

2 markets

📊 Economics

2 events

7 markets

🎬 Entertainment

3 events

45 markets

🏛️ Politics

6 events

18 markets

💹 Financials

133 events

227 markets

⚡ What's Actionable Right Now

The launches from the past 24h with the tightest spreads and live two-sided quotes — i.e. the ones you can actually trade right now.

Will Trump impose martial law?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — bid 9¢ / ask 10¢

Runner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Oct 16, 2026: Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip bid 12¢ / ask 13¢, Training Season (Live) bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, TRALALA bid 1¢ / ask 2¢

Uber Eats App Downloads in October: Above 110 bid 55¢ / ask 57¢, Above 105 bid 64¢ / ask 69¢

Dick's Sporting Goods Credit Card Spend in October: Above 75 bid 97¢ / ask 99¢, Above 79 bid 96¢ / ask 99¢, Above 83 bid 92¢ / ask 95¢

Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Oct 16, 2026: TRALALA, GAVIN:D x Violette Wautier - อย่ามากกว่าฉันก็พอ [IN MY ROOM SESSION], Basinga Balaalu all at bid 1¢ / ask 3¢

Home Depot Credit Card Spend in October: Above 117 bid 1¢ / ask 3¢, Above 113 bid 1¢ / ask 3¢, Above 109 bid 4¢ / ask 7¢

USD/JPY Up or Down – 15 minutes: Target price: 158.074 — bid 49¢ / ask 51¢

All Events — every new event from the past 24h, at a glance

🔬 Science and Technology

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?

📊 Economics

🗳️ Elections

🎬 Entertainment

🏛️ Politics

💹 Financials

All New Events

🔬 Science and Technology — 1 event, 18 markets

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? — 18 outcomes — listed Oct 15, 2026 at 4:28 PM ET

View market options (18 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Z AI	bid 21¢ / ask 29¢
Xiaomi	bid 61¢ / ask 69¢
xAI	bid 11¢ / ask 19¢
Thinking Machines	bid 2¢ / ask 9¢
Tencent	bid 11¢ / ask 19¢
StepFun	bid 2¢ / ask 9¢
OpenAI	bid 86¢ / ask 94¢
NVIDIA	bid 3¢ / ask 7¢
Moonshot AI	bid 6¢ / ask 14¢
Mistral	bid 2¢ / ask 9¢
MiniMax	bid 2¢ / ask 9¢
Meta	bid 16¢ / ask 24¢
InclusionAI	bid 2¢ / ask 7¢
IBM	bid 2¢ / ask 7¢
Google	bid 51¢ / ask 59¢
DeepSeek	bid 4¢ / ask 12¢
Anthropic	bid 76¢ / ask 84¢
Alibaba	bid 8¢ / ask 16¢

🗳️ Elections — 2 events, 2 markets

Israeli legislative election: how many seats will The Democrats win?: Above 9 (bid 34¢ / ask 42¢) — listed Oct 15, 2026 at 10:18 AM ET

Israeli legislative election: how many seats will Yisrael Beiteinu win?: Above 8 (bid 36¢ / ask 44¢) — listed Oct 15, 2026 at 10:18 AM ET

📊 Economics — 2 events, 7 markets

How high will softwood lumber PPI get before 2027? — 6 brackets — listed Oct 15, 2026 at 4:15 PM ET

View market strikes (6 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 330	bid 2¢ / ask 80¢
Above 320	bid 2¢ / ask 80¢
Above 310	bid 2¢ / ask 80¢
Above 300	bid 2¢ / ask 79¢
Above 290	—
Above 190	bid 20¢ / ask 99¢

Will the U.S. announce a new SPR release before 2027?: New SPR release announced? (bid 22¢ / ask 90¢) — listed Oct 15, 2026 at 11:28 AM ET

🎬 Entertainment — 3 events, 45 markets

Runner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Oct 16, 2026 — 15 outcomes — listed Oct 15, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET

View market options (15 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Yeshanagula	bid 1¢ / ask 3¢
Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip	bid 12¢ / ask 13¢
Training Season (Live)	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
TRALALA	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Shararat	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
REAL BADMAN (Official Video) Karan Aujla	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Parvati	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Kayıp Kalp	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
KALYANI (Remix) [YouTube video 11: z5y8Clp_TdE]	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
KALYANI (Remix) [YouTube video 5: xvT1jH8B9AM]	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
GAVIN:D x Violette Wautier - อย่ามากกว่าฉันก็พอ [IN MY ROOM SESSION]	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Dai Dai	bid 19¢ / ask 29¢
Casa Tupka Anthemo	bid 21¢ / ask 54¢
Basinga Balaalu	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Barsaat	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢

Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Oct 16, 2026 — 15 outcomes — listed Oct 15, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET

View market options (15 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Yeshanagula	bid 1¢ / ask 5¢
Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip	bid 2¢ / ask 5¢
Training Season (Live)	bid 1¢ / ask 5¢
TRALALA	bid 1¢ / ask 3¢
Shararat	bid 1¢ / ask 5¢
REAL BADMAN (Official Video) Karan Aujla	bid 1¢ / ask 5¢
Parvati	bid 1¢ / ask 5¢
Kayıp Kalp	bid 1¢ / ask 5¢
KALYANI (Remix) [YouTube video 11: z5y8Clp_TdE]	bid 1¢ / ask 5¢
KALYANI (Remix) [YouTube video 5: xvT1jH8B9AM]	bid 1¢ / ask 5¢
GAVIN:D x Violette Wautier - อย่ามากกว่าฉันก็พอ [IN MY ROOM SESSION]	bid 1¢ / ask 3¢
Dai Dai	bid 28¢ / ask 39¢
Casa Tupka Anthemo	bid 20¢ / ask 25¢
Basinga Balaalu	bid 1¢ / ask 3¢
Barsaat	bid 1¢ / ask 3¢

Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Oct 16, 2026 — 15 outcomes — listed Oct 15, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET

View market options (15 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
WTF GOIN	bid 2¢ / ask 60¢
Todo Lo Fue	bid 1¢ / ask 32¢
The Aura Farmer - Horror Skunx (official song)	bid 2¢ / ask 60¢
Riley Green, Peyton Manning - Alabama Vs. Tennessee (Official Video)	bid 2¢ / ask 71¢
Nicole Kidman	bid 3¢ / ask 64¢
KATSEYE (캣츠아이) "Animal" Official MV	bid 1¢ / ask 39¢
Janice STFU	bid 2¢ / ask 36¢
Death By Firing Squad	bid 11¢ / ask 27¢
Dai Dai	bid 6¢ / ask 67¢
DADDY YANKEE- BOTZ (Bésame OTra veZ) Official Video	bid 1¢ / ask 59¢
Choosin' Texas [YouTube video 5: hLOheGDwD_0]	bid 4¢ / ask 62¢
Choosin' Texas [YouTube video 2: nUsrYVxrDwI]	bid 6¢ / ask 65¢
BigXthaPlug feat. Ava Max - BURN (Official Music Video)	bid 4¢ / ask 62¢
BbY WOW	bid 1¢ / ask 42¢
AH HA	bid 1¢ / ask 31¢

🏛️ Politics — 6 events, 18 markets

How low will Trump's approval rating get during his term? — 7 brackets — listed Oct 15, 2026 at 10:48 AM ET

View market strikes (7 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Below 36%	bid 89¢ / ask 95¢
Below 35%	bid 81¢ / ask 87¢
Below 34%	bid 68¢ / ask 76¢
Below 33%	bid 56¢ / ask 64¢
Below 32%	bid 43¢ / ask 51¢
Below 31%	bid 31¢ / ask 39¢
Below 30%	bid 18¢ / ask 26¢

Who will AOC endorse? — 5 outcomes — listed Oct 15, 2026 at 11:31 AM ET

View market options (5 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Ilhan Omar	bid 81¢ / ask 90¢
Brad Lander	bid 51¢ / ask 60¢
Rashida Tlaib	bid 81¢ / ask 90¢
Donavan McKinney	bid 51¢ / ask 60¢
Dan Osborn	bid 1¢ / ask 10¢

Will the federal minimum wage be raised? — 3 outcomes — listed Oct 15, 2026 at 3:22 PM ET

View market options (3 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Before 2030	bid 31¢ / ask 39¢
Before 2029	bid 6¢ / ask 14¢
Before 2028	bid 4¢ / ask 9¢

Will Trump impose martial law?: Before Jan 1, 2027 (bid 9¢ / ask 10¢) — listed Oct 15, 2026 at 10:18 AM ET

Katie Zacharia out as White House Press Secretary?: Before Dec 1, 2026 (bid 30¢ / ask 34¢) — listed Oct 15, 2026 at 10:18 AM ET

Will Ilhan Omar's citizenship be revoked in 2026?: Yes (bid 15¢ / ask 18¢) — listed Oct 14, 2026 at 7:38 PM ET

💹 Financials — 133 events, 227 markets

10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026? — 10 brackets — listed Oct 14, 2026 at 11:44 PM ET

View market strikes (10 brackets)

Bracket	Price
5.14% or above	bid 28¢ / ask 45¢
5.12% or above	bid 33¢ / ask 48¢
5.1% or above	bid 38¢ / ask 51¢
5.08% or above	bid 43¢ / ask 56¢
5.06% or above	bid 48¢ / ask 61¢
5.04% or above	bid 51¢ / ask 66¢
5.02% or above	bid 54¢ / ask 71¢
5% or above	bid 58¢ / ask 75¢
4.98% or above	bid 61¢ / ask 79¢
4.96% or above	bid 65¢ / ask 82¢

5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026? — 10 brackets — listed Oct 14, 2026 at 11:42 PM ET

View market strikes (10 brackets)

Bracket	Price
4.94% or above	bid 28¢ / ask 51¢
4.92% or above	bid 33¢ / ask 55¢
4.9% or above	bid 38¢ / ask 60¢
4.88% or above	bid 43¢ / ask 65¢
4.86% or above	bid 48¢ / ask 70¢
4.84% or above	bid 51¢ / ask 75¢
4.82% or above	bid 54¢ / ask 79¢
4.8% or above	bid 58¢ / ask 82¢
4.78% or above	bid 61¢ / ask 86¢
4.76% or above	bid 64¢ / ask 88¢

7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026? — 10 brackets — listed Oct 14, 2026 at 9:50 PM ET

View market strikes (10 brackets)

Bracket	Price
5.04% or above	bid 25¢ / ask 48¢
5.02% or above	bid 29¢ / ask 52¢
5% or above	bid 34¢ / ask 55¢
4.98% or above	bid 39¢ / ask 61¢
4.96% or above	bid 44¢ / ask 66¢
4.94% or above	bid 48¢ / ask 70¢
4.92% or above	bid 51¢ / ask 75¢
4.9% or above	bid 54¢ / ask 79¢
4.88% or above	bid 58¢ / ask 82¢
4.86% or above	bid 61¢ / ask 86¢

30Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026? — 10 brackets — listed Oct 14, 2026 at 9:20 PM ET

View market strikes (10 brackets)

Bracket	Price
5.49% or above	bid 22¢ / ask 44¢
5.47% or above	bid 27¢ / ask 48¢
5.45% or above	bid 33¢ / ask 52¢
5.43% or above	bid 37¢ / ask 55¢
5.41% or above	bid 43¢ / ask 61¢
5.39% or above	bid 48¢ / ask 67¢
5.37% or above	bid 52¢ / ask 73¢
5.35% or above	bid 56¢ / ask 77¢
5.33% or above	bid 60¢ / ask 82¢
5.31% or above	bid 63¢ / ask 86¢

Klarna Credit Card Spend in October 2026 — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 15, 2026 at 6:18 PM ET

🔗 See bracket structure on Kalshi →

Afterpay Credit Card Spend in October 2026 — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 15, 2026 at 6:18 PM ET

🔗 See bracket structure on Kalshi →

Affirm Credit Card Spend in October 2026 — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Oct 15, 2026 at 6:18 PM ET

🔗 See bracket structure on Kalshi →

Walmart Foot Traffic in October — 9 brackets — listed Oct 15, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET

View market strikes (9 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 84	bid 60¢ / ask 90¢
Above 80	bid 79¢ / ask 88¢
Above 76	bid 84¢ / ask 89¢
Above 108	bid 1¢ / ask 22¢
Above 112	bid 1¢ / ask 21¢
Above 116	bid 1¢ / ask 20¢
Above 72	bid 84¢ / ask 99¢
Above 68	bid 85¢ / ask 99¢
Above 64	bid 89¢ / ask 99¢

How much will the Tesla Roadster cost? — 4 brackets — listed Oct 15, 2026 at 11:33 AM ET

View market strikes (4 brackets)

Bracket	Price
At least $325,000	bid 21¢ / ask 30¢
At least $350,000	bid 14¢ / ask 22¢
At least $375,000	bid 8¢ / ask 16¢
At least $400,000	bid 4¢ / ask 12¢

Grok App Downloads in October 2026 — 3 brackets — listed Oct 15, 2026 at 4:44 PM ET