THE TOP STORY
MLB Home Run Derby
The 2026 T-Mobile Home Run Derby goes tonight, 8 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, streaming on Netflix for the first time.
New format: each of eight hitters gets a fixed 20 swings in Round 1, then the top four totals advance to a seeded head-to-head bracket (15 swings per round).
Hometown Phillie Kyle Schwarber is the 22¢ favorite, but his teammate Harper at 10¢ is the mispricing — the market is treating him as a longshot despite the strongest precedent in the field.
Home-park history: Harper is the last player to win a Derby in his own ballpark — 2018, Nationals Park.
Head-to-head: He beat Schwarber in that 2018 final.
That 8-to-4 cut is the trade. If Harper survives Round 1, he's one of four left — roughly 25% baseline. Hometown adrenaline in front of Philly fans should carry him through the opening round.
Best trade: Pre-Derby Bryce Harper YES (~10¢), flip after Round 1
WATCH LIST WISH LIST
🎬 Who will acquire Letterboxd?
Letterboxd, the 30M-member film-logging network majority-owned by holding company Tiny, has opened a LionTree-run sales process floating a $250M valuation. An unconfirmed Puck report says Netflix, Sony Pictures, Paramount, TPG, RedBird, Versant, and Alexis Ohanian have all taken early meetings.
Letterboxd acquirer: Paramount "No" — 88 bid/94 ask
This acquisition is far too rich for a bidder whose bandwidth is fully consumed by its $31/share Warner Bros. Discovery takeover:
State AG lawsuit (today): Multiple states, including California's Rob Bonta, are expected to sue to block the WBD merger on antitrust grounds.
EU review: Brussels' provisional deadline is July 22, with Paramount already submitting concessions.
Close timeline: Ellison says WBD closes by September — a $250M cinephile app is a distraction until then.
SOCCER SUPER BOWL
⚽ World Cup Markets
FIFA World Cup Winner: France — 39.7¢
Four teams remain: France face Spain Tuesday in Arlington, England meet Argentina Wednesday in Atlanta, with the final set for July 19 in New Jersey.
France has won all six matches behind Mbappé's eight goals; the market has them at 39.7%, ahead of England (21.5%), Spain (20.8%), and Argentina (17.6%) — pointing to a likely France–England final.
Beyond the winner, two Super Bowl-style novelty markets are live and moving:
Final advertisers: Adidas 87%, Home Depot 70% (▲10), Anthropic/Claude 66% — real volatility on brand buys.
Celebrity attendance: Tom Brady 94%, Travis Scott 43% (▲18), Zendaya down 33 points to 34%.
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