Welcome to Prediction News Network — the SportsCenter meets NYTimes meets Bloomberg of the prediction markets. We're here to keep you updated on the news and help you figure out what’s going to happen before it happens.

We’re super bullish on this new asset class — not just because you can bet on it, but because it’s where real-world curiosity meets real-time context. You might catch a headline about NYC’s mayoral race or wonder if that new Benson Boone song will chart — but how do you find key context around real signal?

That’s what we’re here for: to give your hunches key context — and ultimately into correct predictions.

Here’s just a taste of what we’re beginning to roll out:

✅ Daily newsletter (Have a question or hot take? We read every reply)
🎮 Games section (Wordle-type games with a market spin)
📰 Articles on the latest markets (From Trump to Tarantino)
📊 Kalshi User Postings sentiment (Finding the Roaring Kitty of prediction markets)

Cash in on Culture. Let’s get into it 👇

Jon Jones Retirement Market Dips to 14% Amid Holm’s Comments, Market Skepticism Grows

The Backstory:
Jon Jones, widely regarded as the greatest MMA fighter in history, officially retired after defeating Stipe Miocic in late 2024. The UFC named Tom Aspinall the undisputed heavyweight champion shortly after. While UFC CEO Dana White stated a unification fight was planned, Jones ultimately opted out, signaling his retirement to the promotion.

Why It Matters:
Speculation has persisted over whether Jones would return for one final bout in 2025, particularly against Aspinall. But with no movement toward a comeback and teammate Holly Holm emphasizing fighters “should follow their heart,” the tone around a potential return has cooled. Holm’s neutral comments reinforced perceptions that Jones may indeed stay retired, rather than teasing a return.

Market Price:
As of July 1, the Kalshi prediction market gives Jones a 14% chance of coming out of retirement this year, down 1 point from the previous day. “Yes” contracts are trading at 12¢, while “No” contracts command 92¢ — signaling heavy skepticism from market participants.

Forward-Looking Implications:

For now, traders appear firmly unconvinced that the legend will make one last walk to the Octagon.

MLB Games: 15
WNBA Games: 1

Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets – 7:10 PM ET
Two evenly matched playoff hopefuls meet at Citi Field with nearly identical records and strong starters on the mound. Freddy Peralta (2.90 ERA) has been lights-out for Milwaukee, while Clay Holmes counters with consistency for the Mets. Despite New York’s recent slump (3-13 in last 16), Juan Soto remains hot, while Milwaukee's bullpen excels in high-leverage spots.
Both teams struggle with runners in scoring position, creating a tension-filled matchup that leans Under but carries sharp interest due to the contrast in momentum and value on Milwaukee as a road dog.

New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays – 3:07 PM ET
An AL East showdown with real divisional stakes sees Max Fried (1.92 ERA) take on Kevin Gausman (4.21 ERA) in a Canada Day matinee. The Yankees’ lead is down to 1.5 games, with Toronto surging at home and just two back. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has ignited New York’s lineup, but the Jays are 13-4 in their last 17 at Rogers Centre.
With both teams excelling against lefties and the Over hitting in 10 of their last 13 matchups, expect a potential offensive breakout despite ace-caliber arms.

First MLB game starts at 3:07 pm ET

Indiana @ Minnesota – 8:00 PM ET
Indiana enters the Commissioner's Cup final with a 4–1 record in cup play but faces uncertainty with Caitlin Clark (groin), who averages just 11.8 PPG on the road. The Fever rank fourth in scoring (84.1 PPG) and shoot 45% from the field. Minnesota is 14–2 overall, 8–0 at home, and leads the league in defense (74.2 PAPG). Napheesa Collier (24.4 PPG, 8.5 RPG) anchors the Lynx, supported by Kayla McBride’s perimeter shooting and Courtney Williams’ playmaking.

Musk Threatens New Political Party Amid Trump Feud, Market Spikes to 41%

The Backstory: Elon Musk reignited his feud with President Trump this week, blasting the administration's $5 trillion spending bill and declaring that he will launch a new “America Party” if the legislation passes. The threat came in a series of social media posts Monday, escalating what had been a simmering political rift into open warfare.

Why It Matters: Musk is not just venting — he’s the largest individual GOP donor and controls a massive online audience. His push for a third party could disrupt both the Republican primary landscape and national politics, especially if he follows through with funding or endorsements in 2026.

Market Price: The Kalshi prediction market surged to 41% probability, up sharply from under 10% just days ago, though still down 33 points from a brief spike Monday night. Contracts to bet "Yes" on Musk forming a party are now trading at 41¢, while "No" trades at 60¢.

Forward-Looking Implications:

For now, traders appear divided: Is Musk serious, or just posturing again?

Superman Rises – Kalshi Forecast Hits 87, +4pt Climb

The Story:
James Gunn’s Superman — a tonal reboot steeped in Silver Age optimism and modern production design — is nearing release with mounting critical and commercial anticipation. Positioned as the DCU’s formal reset, the film brings a vibrant, humanist take to the character, anchoring its narrative in themes of decency, belonging, and legacy. With marketing peaking, early screenings beginning, and a wide theatrical rollout set for July 11, investor interest in the film’s cultural performance is heating up.

Market Reaction:
Traders on Kalshi have responded to bullish signals: a Rotten Tomatoes score forecast now sits at 87, up 4 points, reflecting strong confidence in critical reception.

🎬 As early buzz crystallizes around tone, performance, and Gunn’s direction, the prediction market is signaling a likely critical success — but traders are still pricing in limits on near-universal acclaim.

Srinivas Narayanan to join xAI: Market implies a 12% chance he’ll move to Elon Musk’s shop, suggesting low confidence in a jump from OpenAI.

Tony Wu to join Meta: Traders give it a 15% probability, hinting at moderate speculation around Meta AI’s hiring momentum.

Brad Lightcap to leave OpenAI: Priced at 18¢, there's growing attention on senior leadership turnover post-Sutskever exit.

Jack Clark to leave Anthropic: Contracts sit at 17¢, possibly reflecting rising pressure amid Anthropic's AI safety challenges.

Srinivas Narayanan to join Anthropic: At 17¢, there's slight buzz about a cross-lab migration, but still a long shot.

“I for NO” — @esilvz
Market: When will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill?
With the July 2 deadline looming, traders are counting votes like cryptographers.

“if I’m wrong I’m gonna be broker than the US government” — anonymous
Market: Will the national debt shrink this quarter?
As the quarterly numbers approached, some traders were betting big on fiscal reality not turning upside down.

“let’s ride” — @ryans723
Market: When will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill?
A simple battle cry as the Senate stalls and the “No” contracts hover near 40¢.

Just like the New York Times, we’ve got quick-hit games — but with a predictive twist. Whether you’re matching emojis or hitting 21, they’re built to sharpen your instinct for patterns, probabilities, and plays. More coming soon…

👉 Emoji Match | 🃏 21 Blackjack