Welcome to Prediction News Network — the SportsCenter meets NYTimes meets Bloomberg of the prediction markets. We're here to keep you updated on the news and help you figure out what’s going to happen before it happens. We give your hunches key context.

You might catch a headline about NYC’s mayoral race or wonder if that new Benson Boone song will chart — but how do you find key context around real signal?

Cash in on Culture. Let’s get into it 👇

Prediction Market Reacts to Diddy Verdict: Pardon Odds Up, But Still Low

The Backstory: Sean "Diddy" Combs was acquitted Wednesday of the most serious charges — racketeering conspiracy and sex trafficking — in a high-profile federal case, but the jury found him guilty on two counts of transporting women for prostitution.

Why It Matters: With sentencing looming and continued public scrutiny, speculation has intensified over whether Donald Trump might consider pardoning Combs. Trump has granted high-profile pardons in the past, and allies have floated clemency for controversial figures.

Market Price: As of Wednesday morning, Diddy is trading at 11% on the question of whether Trump will pardon him this year, up 1 point following the verdict. The “No” side holds strong at 91 cents, indicating the market sees it as a long shot.

Forward-Looking Implications:

MLB Games: 19
WNBA Games: 0

Doubleheaders in DC, Philly, and Queens make up a jam-packed Wednesday slate

First MLB game starts at 12:10 pm ET

X Payments Faces Uncertain Timeline Despite Visa Deal, Market Bets on September Debut

The Backstory:
After years of anticipation and Elon Musk’s bold promises, X is edging closer to launching its long-awaited payments platform. The company recently announced a partnership with Visa, marking its first official step toward becoming an “everything app.”

Why It Matters:
The success of X Money is critical to Musk’s vision of transforming X into a financial super-app akin to China’s WeChat. Yet the clock is ticking: X has only received money transmitter licenses in 41 states, and no public launch date has been confirmed. Amid mounting financial pressure and increasing competition, the market is watching closely.

Market Price:
Prediction market traders currently assign a 14% chance that X Money launches before August 1, 2025, and a 49% chance it launches before September 1, 2025. Both probabilities have ticked up in recent days, with the September contract gaining 7 points.

Forward-Looking Implications:

Markets are watching for a concrete launch date — and so far, X is still silent.

Bond Market Shaken – Harris Dickinson Surges, Aaron Taylor-Johnson Falls 23pts

The Story:
A reported shortlist from Amazon MGM Studios has reset expectations for Bond 26 casting, prompting a major reshuffle in prediction markets. While director Denis Villeneuve brings prestige and cinematic weight to the franchise, the leaked preference for actors under 30—highlighting Harris Dickinson, Tom Holland, and Jacob Elordi—has been met with skepticism. Critics argue this signals a more risk-averse, algorithm-driven casting strategy that contrasts sharply with Villeneuve’s cerebral filmmaking style. Despite doubts, the market is adjusting to the reality that youth and mainstream appeal may now outweigh grit and gravitas.

Market Reaction:
On Kalshi, Harris Dickinson jumped into the lead at 24%, gaining 5 points in the wake of the Amazon shortlist, while previous favorite Aaron Taylor-Johnson plummeted 23 percentage points from his May peak of over 45%. Theo James also climbed slightly, reaching 19%, amid broader volatility. This realignment reflects growing sentiment that the final decision may lean toward Amazon’s franchise-building calculus rather than fan-driven or auteur-aligned preferences.

🎬 With $44K in volume traded, odds now reflect the uneasy consensus: Amazon’s Bond may not be bold—it may just be young.

"I Know What You Did Last Summer" Rotten Tomatoes: There’s a 52% chance the score tops 60. Traders are split on whether the cult slasher can win over critics this time.

Pharma Ads TV Ban: Only a 20% probability that pharmaceutical commercials will be pulled from the air this year. Regulatory momentum still lacking.

Tesla Robotaxi in California: Markets see a 76% chance that Tesla rolls out its autonomous fleet in CA before year-end — likely tied to expected August announcements.

NYC Billionaire Exodus: Odds suggest a moderate likelihood of churn, with traders watching the “At least 3” threshold more closely than “At least 8”.

Trump Joins Bluesky: Just a 17% chance Trump jumps to the Twitter rival. His platform loyalty — and Truth Social stake — keep this bet steeply discounted.

“he literally just tweeted at @ mentioned Donald Trump 5 hrs ago . that counts” — @AFSPOD
Market: Will Elon Musk say Donald Trump before Jul 3, 2025? (Yes · 29%)
The market was in chaos after Elon tweeted "@realDonaldTrump" — but does an @ mention count?

“THEY ANNOUNCED 384,000 WHAT THE HELL?!!!” — Anonymous
Market: Tesla deliveries in Q2 2025? (Yes · 375,000 or more · 90%)
Tesla dropped a surprise beat, blowing past expectations. While the price had already been high, some users felt robbed of a cleaner win as cashouts lagged.

“if he loses against this kid I’m convinced tennis is rigged” — @sreezus
Market: Wimbledon Men Singles: Mochizuki or Khachanov advances? (Yes · Khachanov · 74%)
Veteran Karen Khachanov faced teenager Shintaro Mochizuki, and confidence was high—perhaps too high. When the match got tight, @sreezus channeled collective anxiety with the only rational explanation: conspiracy. 🎾

Just like the New York Times, we’ve got quick-hit games — but with a predictive twist. Whether you’re matching emojis or hitting 21, they’re built to sharpen your instinct for patterns, probabilities, and plays. More coming soon…

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