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Chestnut’s Return Shakes Nathan’s Hot Dog Forecast as Odds Slide Ahead of July 4 Contest

The Backstory: After being banned in 2024, Joey Chestnut returns to Coney Island for the 2025 Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest, aiming to reclaim his dominance in competitive eating. His comeback has spurred intense speculation over whether he can surpass past totals and approach his record of 76 dogs in 10 minutes.

Why It Matters: Chestnut’s performance not only defines the sport’s biggest stage but also drives millions in prediction market and sportsbook volume. With a year away from competition and the contest potentially facing hot, humid conditions, traders and bettors are reassessing his ceiling.

Market Price: On Kalshi, traders currently forecast 72.3 hot dogs for the winner, down 0.6 from yesterday. The probability of eating 70 or more hot dogs stands at 64%, down 8 points recently, while 65 or more remains high at 86%. Betting odds at sportsbooks reflect Chestnut as the overwhelming favorite to win, but breaking his own record (77+) remains a long shot.

Forward-Looking Implications:

MLB Games: 10
WNBA Games: 5

Today’s top contests include Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets (7:10 PM ET), where ace lefties José Quintana and David Peterson both carry 3.30 ERAs into a pivotal rubber match, making for a tense, low-scoring clash in Citi Field.

The New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays (7:07 PM ET) serves as a headline AL East showdown with Clarke Schmidt and Chris Bassitt on the mound and Aaron Judge looking to keep Toronto from completing a sweep.

At Coors Field, the Houston Astros @ Colorado Rockies (3:10 PM ET) features Colorado’s hapless staff facing a red-hot Houston lineup and rising rookie Brandon Walter, setting the stage for a potential slugfest.

Other intriguing matchups include Tigers @ Nationals, where Detroit’s powerful bats meet lefty Dietrich Enns, and Royals @ Mariners, spotlighting two groundball aces—Seth Lugo and Bryan Woo—in a tight late-night battle.

Las Vegas @ Indiana – 7:00 PM ET
Las Vegas has won four straight behind A’ja Wilson, who ranks second in the league at 21.6 PPG and has scored 22+ in four consecutive games. Indiana just captured its first Commissioner’s Cup title despite missing Caitlin Clark and holds opponents to 42.9% shooting. Kelsey Mitchell (18.8 PPG) and Aliyah Boston (15.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG) lead a balanced Fever attack.

Los Angeles @ New York – 7:00 PM ET
New York has dropped two of three while allowing 90+ points in consecutive games, hampered by Jonquel Jones’ ankle injury. Breanna Stewart (20.8 PPG, 6.0 RPG) and Sabrina Ionescu (18.6 PPG) pace the league’s top-scoring offense at 87.6 PPG. Los Angeles has lost five of six and leans on Kelsey Plum (20.6 PPG, 5.6 APG) and Dearica Hamby (16.5 PPG) to keep pace.

Seattle @ Atlanta – 7:00 PM ET
Seattle has won three of four, with Skylar Diggins (18.9 PPG, 6.1 APG) and Nneka Ogwumike (17.0 PPG) sparking the offense. Atlanta ranks third in offensive rating but plays at the league’s slowest pace, led by Allisha Gray (19.5 PPG) and Rhyne Howard (16.8 PPG, 4.7 APG), whose status is questionable with an upper-body injury. Both teams sit in the top five of the standings.

Phoenix @ Dallas – 8:00 PM ET
Phoenix leads the WNBA with 10.4 threes per game at a 34.8% clip, anchored by Satou Sabally (19.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG) and Alyssa Thomas (9.3 APG). Dallas dominates the boards, ranking first in offensive rebounding and third overall, with Paige Bueckers (18.4 PPG, 5.8 APG) and Arike Ogunbowale (16.8 PPG) leading the offense. The Wings are just 1–8 against conference opponents despite their interior presence.

Washington @ Minnesota – 8:00 PM ET
Minnesota remains atop the standings at 14–2, despite dropping two of its last four, and allows just 76.1 PPG while controlling the glass. Washington has won three of four but is 3–6 on the road, with Brittney Sykes (18.6 PPG) and Sonia Citron (15.1 PPG) leading the way. The Mystics beat the Lynx 68–64 in their earlier meeting.

Trump Edges Ahead as Top Endorser Pick for Eric Adams in NYC Mayoral Race Betting Markets

The Backstory: As New York City’s 2025 mayoral general election heats up, attention has turned to which high-profile figures might endorse incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who is running as an independent. The prediction market on Kalshi shows significant movements in this question.

Why It Matters: Endorsements could prove crucial in a crowded and polarized field, as Adams tries to consolidate centrist and business support against Zohran Mamdani, the progressive Democratic nominee, and others. The market’s pricing reflects how traders perceive the evolving alliances among political heavyweights and business leaders.

Market Price: As of July 3, Donald Trump leads the market at 38%, down 14 points from earlier highs. Curtis Sliwa has surged 20 points to 35%, while Michael Bloomberg lags at 11%. The “Yes” contract for Trump’s endorsement trades at 66¢, for Sliwa at 25¢, and for Bloomberg at 74¢, suggesting traders see Trump as the most likely but increasingly contested option.

Forward-Looking Implications: With prominent financiers like Bill Ackman and Daniel Loeb throwing support behind Adams and calling for Cuomo to step aside, the endorsement calculus could shift further in the weeks ahead. A Trump endorsement would likely energize Adams’ anti-Mamdani narrative but could alienate parts of the city’s Democratic base. Market participants are watching closely for cues from Adams’ meetings with business and political figures to adjust their positions accordingly.

The Story:
The upcoming I Know What You Did Last Summer sequel, set to hit theaters July 18, 2025, continues the cult slasher franchise with returning stars Jennifer Love Hewitt and Freddie Prinze Jr., alongside a new cast. Directed by Jennifer Kaytin Robinson, this installment promises a more brutal, fan-focused experience — explicitly designed, as Robinson put it, to be “balls-to-the-wall fun” and “a really fun, popcorn summer event.” With a blend of nostalgia and updated social-media themes, anticipation has been high among horror fans and franchise loyalists.

Market Reaction:
Sentiment on the film’s critical reception has softened sharply in recent days. On Kalshi’s Rotten Tomatoes prediction market, the forecast score fell to 49.5 — a drop of 18.6 points — suggesting skepticism over whether the film will resonate with critics despite its fan service. As of this snapshot, traders estimate a 56% chance the score stays above 45, a 36% chance it clears 60, and only a 16% chance of exceeding 75. Volatility over the past 48 hours shows notable sell-offs as traders recalibrated expectations.

🎬 This steep decline in market confidence suggests that while the movie may still succeed with audiences looking for nostalgic thrills, critical acclaim appears less likely at this stage.

Alaska Governor primary: Markets open on whether Click Bishop or Tom Begich advance in Alaska’s gubernatorial primary — no clear favorite yet.

Oklahoma Attorney General race: Republican party strongly favored at 90%, signaling entrenched GOP dominance in statewide offices.

Wisconsin Attorney General race: Democratic party leads with a 75% chance, reflecting the state’s ongoing partisan divide.

Musk tags Trump on X: A 74% chance Musk mentions Trump this month, underscoring their unpredictable dynamic and media buzz potential.

Evita on Broadway: There’s a 66% probability the iconic musical makes it to Broadway, suggesting strong behind-the-scenes momentum.

“is this just a market on how long dollar store obama can keep talking?” — @JorkinDeBook
Market: When will a budget reconciliation bill become law?
The budget bill market has become a spectacle, with traders debating whether Hakeem Jeffries’ marathon speeches are more about drama than policy.

“am i an idiot? or am i 500IQ degen gambler ▮” — @fnss
Market: When will a budget reconciliation bill become law?
Another participant grapples with existential questions as the reconciliation vote drags on.

“breakfast money coolio” — @marlyf718
Market: Bitcoin price today at 9am EDT?
After yet another swing in Bitcoin, traders who said “No” to $109,500+ woke up a little richer — and @marlyf718 celebrated their modest win over morning coffee.

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