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❓ What’s Happening
Yulia Navalnaya leads at 21%, with Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms at 11%, and Donald Trump at 10%. Trump has spent the summer lobbying for the award, boasting that he “ended seven wars” and even raising the topic with Norway’s finance minister, which sparked a wave of coverage about his campaign.

📈 Market Snapshot

🔍 Why It Matters
Trump has made the Nobel Prize a central obsession, repeatedly contrasting himself with Barack Obama, who won in 2009. He claims credit for ceasefires from Armenia–Azerbaijan to India–Pakistan, though many nations dispute his role. Reports show he even tied tariff talks with Norway to mentions of the prize. While critics call his efforts “Orwellian” and point to his support for Israel’s war in Gaza, some leaders — including Netanyahu and Hun Manet — have nominated him.

⏭️ What to Watch Next

💡 Trader Takeaway
Navalnaya holds frontrunner status, but Trump’s aggressive lobbying keeps him priced for a surprise. At 10%, the market signals he needs a visible diplomatic breakthrough to close the gap.

MLB Games: 15 - First Game @ 12:05 pm ET

WNBA Games: 3 - First Game @ 3 pm ET

Context
The Red Sox (71-59) close a four-game set at Yankee Stadium against the Yankees (69-60), with Boston looking for a sweep after dominating the season series. FanDuel lists New York as -168 favorites with an 8.5 run total, hinting at moderate scoring in a high-stakes Wild Card race.

Notables
Dustin May (7-9, 4.59 ERA) has been shaky on the road with a 6.28 ERA in 10 starts, while Carlos Rodón (13-7, 3.24 ERA) seeks his third straight quality outing for New York. Boston’s bullpen has quietly been elite, holding opponents to a .224 average and .640 OPS, while Giancarlo Stanton is on a tear with a 1.205 OPS and 15 homers since July 8.

Lean
Boston has won eight straight over New York, but the Yankees still hold the Wild Card edge and send the steadier starter to the mound. With early scoring likely—New York leads MLB in first-inning homers and May struggles early—the lean tilts slightly toward the Yankees snapping the skid.

Context
The Golden State Valkyries head into Dallas clinging to the eighth playoff spot with an 18-18 record, desperate to snap a three-game skid. The Wings, already eliminated, enter on a six-game home losing streak but boast one of the league’s most electric rookies in Paige Bueckers.

Notables
Bueckers, fresh off a 44-point explosion vs. the Sparks, is averaging 19.4 points on 47.1% shooting and has been the lone consistent spark for Dallas. Meanwhile, Golden State leans on fast-break scoring and perimeter shooting to mask defensive lapses, but their playoff urgency gives this matchup added weight.

Lean
With the season series tied 1-1, the Valkyries’ recent 86-76 win in July looms large, showing they can impose their style on Dallas. Given their postseason stakes and the Wings’ continued struggles at home, Golden State has the edge in what should be a tight contest.

❓ What’s Happening
Traders are speculating on “How much will AirTag 2 cost?”, with the “at least $30” contract at 38%. Reports suggest Apple will unveil AirTag 2 next month alongside the iPhone 17 lineup, with iOS 18.6 code already showing support for the device. Earlier hints included Apple discontinuing its AirTag Loop accessory, a move seen before prior hardware refreshes.

📈 Market Snapshot

🔍 Why It Matters
Apple’s trackers debuted in 2021 and quickly became travel essentials, but stalking controversies and limited range have pressured upgrades. Reports now point to AirTag 2 featuring a revamped UWB chip with 60–90m Precision Finding range, stronger anti-stalking safeguards, and possibly a rechargeable battery. With Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman repeatedly tying the launch to Apple’s September event, odds traders are weighing whether the price point holds steady at $29 or climbs higher.

⏭️ What to Watch Next

💡 Trader Takeaway
At 38%, the market signals skepticism that Apple raises the AirTag’s base price — but with new hardware in the pipeline, upside exists if the company chooses to price in line with its broader premium shift.

❓ What’s Happening
Traders are betting on “Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale” Rotten Tomatoes score. The forecast sits at 83, with 62% odds the score tops 80%. Buzz surged after the official trailer dropped, with fans “spiralling ever since” at revelations like Lady Mary’s divorce scandal and a tribute to the late Maggie Smith’s Dowager Countess.

📈 Market Snapshot

🔍 Why It Matters
The third and final Downton Abbey film premieres Sept. 12, 2025, promising scandals, financial turmoil, and emotional goodbyes.

NBC is airing a one-hour “Downton Abbey Celebrates The Grand Finale” reunion on Sept. 10, including behind-the-scenes stories and a sneak preview. Emotional fan reactions — “This is going to wreck me” — signal strong audience engagement that could buoy critic scores.

⏭️ What to Watch Next

💡 Trader Takeaway
At 62% for Above 80, markets lean bullish on critical reception.

Drake tour odds: 61% chance Drake announces a new tour this year — markets are leaning toward a big 2025 arena run.

IShowSpeed growth bet: 40% odds he passes 50M subscribers in 2025, but just 11% for 60M — signaling expectations of slowing momentum.

Doja Cat album watch: Just 20% probability she scores a #1 this year, reflecting skepticism about a blockbuster release.

AirTag 2 launch pricing: 38% odds Apple raises the price — seen as a test of how far the brand can push on accessories.

“Sliwa at least beats his 2021 results and pulls 32–36%. Cuomo, Adams, and the socialist split the dem vote and none of them break 30% Excited to see what NYC is gonna look like with a Republican mayor!” — @wolfofwallstreet
Market: New York City Mayor Election
Curtis Sliwa’s long-shot bid has its defenders. Posters are running math on vote splits, and @wolfofwallstreet paints potential dark horse.

“Bad Bunny now outperforming Taylor by 80 million streams per day and continuing to widen the gap... Not even sure if Taylor can capture this even with two album releases this year if BB’s album has staying power.” — @sevenrings
Market: Top artist on Spotify this year?
Taylor Swift may own the memes, but posters are citing stream counts like earnings reports. @sevenrings is convinced this one isn’t a battle of vibes but of raw daily plays—and Bad Bunny’s numbers are looking muy fuerte.

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