THE TOP STORY
MLB All-Star Game
The 96th Midsummer Classic is tonight at Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park (8 PM ET, FOX), with Dylan Cease starting for the AL against hometown ace Cristopher Sánchez. The NL enters as the 56¢ favorite on Kalshi.
That pricing leans on Philly flair — six Phillies All-Stars, Sánchez on the mound — but the market is fading one of the most durable trends in sports:
Recent dominance: The AL has won 10 of the past 12 All-Star Games and lost just eight since 1988.
NL repeat drought: The NL hasn't won two straight since 2012; last year's win required a first-ever home run swing-off after a 6-6 tie.
Best trade: All-Star Game: AL "Yes" — 45¢
Bonus market: Run in the first inning?
The YRFI angle runs through the NL's top three: Schwarber, Soto, and Freeman — a veteran, power-heavy trio — get first crack at Dylan Cease, with Schwarber leading off fresh off a strong Home Run Derby showing last night.
Cease's shine deserves a discount here. His near no-hitter came at home against a sub-.500 Giants club, and his last two starts both came against sub-.500 teams. When he faced a comparable Phillies lineup in June, he surrendered a first-inning run.
The AL side offers a secondary path — Yordan Alvarez bats second with real home run pop, even against hometown ace Cristopher Sánchez.
Best trade: Limit buy Yes at 44¢
FRENCH FRIED
⚽ France vs Spain - World Cup Semifinal Matchup
The World Cup semifinal kicks off today at 3 p.m. ET in Dallas — winner plays for the title Sunday in New Jersey. France and Spain are the world's top two ranked teams; France is the tournament's scoring machine (Mbappé leads all players with 8 goals), while Spain has given up just one goal in six games.
France sits at 57¢, but it's been trickling down all morning as Spain ticks up to 43¢. The play isn't holding Spain to the final whistle — it's the flip:
France's cracks: Centerbacks Saliba and Upamecano missed training; Mbappé iced an ankle last round.
The exit: If Spain's defense holds it level into halftime — or scores first — this reprices toward 50/50. Sell into that spike before France's firepower decides it late.
Best trade: Buy Spain "Yes" at 43¢ pregame, flip at the half
CALIFORNIA DREAMIN’
🎬 Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
Twelve state attorneys general, led by California's Rob Bonta, sued Monday to block Paramount Skydance's $31-per-share takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery, arguing the merger would "extinguish competition." The filing pushed "None before July 2027" up 6 points to 23¢ while Paramount's "Yes" slipped to 79¢.
The dip reads as an overreaction — this is a state case swimming against a cleared federal deal:
DOJ (mid-June): The Antitrust Division already signed off, finding no likely harm to competition or consumers.
Global clearances: China, Canada, and Australia approved; the EU's provisional deadline is July 22, with Paramount concessions submitted.
No TRO filed: States only asked the companies to pause — while a ~$650M-per-quarter ticking fee after Sept. 30 pressures Paramount to close fast.
Best trade: Limit buy Paramount "Yes" at 78¢.
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