Prediction News Network delivers clear context and insight on tradable events, informed both by the event itself and the current price.

Trending: The Wall Street Journal wrote about why Christmas music is more popular than ever. What song will be Billboard Top 200 #1 on Dec 27, 2025 chart?

Today’s Rundown

What’s Happening: The White House just detonated a major political and regulatory flashpoint with President Trump’s new Executive Order creating a national framework for AI and expressly targeting state-level AI laws. The move reverses Biden-era oversight, replaces risk-mitigation with deregulatory acceleration, and sets up DOJ litigation against states like Colorado, California, and Texas. The EO arrives amid bipartisan backlash, with populists (DeSantis, Bannon) and Democrats (Newsom, Sanders) both blasting it—though for different reasons. Tech leaders and pro-innovation blocs applaud the EO as necessary to maintain U.S. dominance in AI and avoid a “patchwork” of 50 regulatory regimes.

For the Kalshi market “AI regulation becomes federal law this year?”, the critical detail is unchanged: an executive order is not legislation. Congress still needs to pass an actual AI law regulating LLM training, use, or creation for the market to resolve Yes—and Congress has repeatedly failed to advance such bills. The EO does not satisfy the rule and instead may politically harden Congress into inaction.

Market Pricing

Scenarios

If Congress attempts a bipartisan AI framework in response to the EO’s federal–state showdown, the market could see a surprise bid. But the current coalition is fractured: populist right + civil-liberties left oppose tech-friendly preemption, while business Republicans want deregulation without statutory mandates. That is not a recipe for fast legislation.

If states sue and injunctions start flying, Congress may move even slower—legislative momentum dies while courts handle the fight. This keeps the probability of federal AI law near zero for 2025.

If a major AI safety crisis hits (deepfake election scandal, critical infrastructure breach), Congress could be forced to legislate—but that would require a catalytic event of magnitude not yet present this year.

Trading Takeaway

The new EO reduces, not increases, the odds of Congress passing AI legislation in 2025. It reframes the battle as federal preemption vs. states’ rights, splintering Republican unity and galvanizing Democratic resistance. With only weeks left in the year and no bipartisan vehicle moving, statutory passage is effectively dead.

Call: Short “Yes” at 6¢.

What’s Happening: James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash lands in theaters Dec. 19, 2025, continuing directly from The Way of Water. The film pushes deeper into Pandora’s lore with the introduction of the Ash People, a volcanic Na’vi tribe led by Oona Chaplin’s Varang. Early reactions show the full spectrum: rapturous praise for visuals, action, immersion, and craft, balanced by notable critiques around repetition, bloated runtime, and story familiarity.

The core throughline: this is a massive, technically dominant spectacle that may divide critics on narrative ambition but is broadly viewed as a high-end execution of the Avatar formula. That dynamic is now rippling into the Rotten Tomatoes markets.

Market Pricing

Scenarios

If critics coalesce around “spectacle over story” but praise the emotional escalation, the Tomatometer likely firms in the 74–79% zone, giving Above 75 meaningful rebound potential.

If reviews continue highlighting repetition, bloat, and limited narrative evolution, the aggregate settles closer to 70–74%, keeping Above 70 safe but crushing Above 75/80 longs.

Trading Takeaway

The market is pricing a mid-70s equilibrium, supported by a consensus pattern: undeniable craft, uneven story. The asymmetric play sits in Above 75 at 37¢—there’s enough upside variance in the critic pool (and strong early raves) to justify a speculative long with defined risk.

Call: Long Above 75 at 37¢

The WSJ just reported the highest price ever paid for modern art at auction.

While equities, gold, bitcoin hover near highs, the art market is showing signs of early recovery after one of the longest downturns since the 1990s.

Here’s where it gets interesting→

Each investing environment is unique, but after the dot com crash, contemporary and post-war art grew ~24% a year for a decade, and after 2008, it grew ~11% annually for 12 years.*

Overall, the segment has outpaced the S&P by 15 percent with near-zero correlation from 1995 to 2025.

Now, Masterworks lets you invest in shares of artworks featuring legends like Banksy, Basquiat, and Picasso. Since 2019, investors have deployed $1.25 billion across 500+ artworks.

Masterworks has sold 25 works with net annualized returns like 14.6%, 17.6%, and 17.8%.

Shares can sell quickly, but my subscribers skip the waitlist:

Skip waitlist

_{*Per Masterworks data. Investing involves risk. Past performance not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd}

What’s Happening: Week 15 closes under the lights at Acrisure with two AFC teams fighting for playoff oxygen. Miami (6–7) has ripped off four straight behind a punishing ground game — 192 rushing yards per game since Week 10 — and a defense allowing just 13.3 PPG over that span. De’Von Achane is expected to play through a ribs issue, with Jaylen Wright providing real burst as the change-up.

Pittsburgh (7–6) reclaimed the AFC North lead with a gritty win in Baltimore, but now plays without T.J. Watt, Andrus Peat, and CB James Pierre. Aaron Rodgers’ best game of the year (284 yards, deep-ball revival with DK Metcalf) gives the Steelers a real vertical element they’ve lacked. Temperatures in the 20s and a physical identity on both sidelines set the tone for a classic December MNF grinder.

Market Pricing

Scenarios

If Miami controls the ground game, exploiting Pittsburgh’s banged-up front (217 and 249 rushing yards allowed the last two weeks), the Dolphins can script another low-variance, clock-control win — especially if Achane/Wright break explosives on the edge.

If Rodgers–Metcalf stays hot, with deep shots again landing and Miami forced into a pass-heavy script, Pittsburgh can tilt this toward a home win even with Watt sidelined. Miami’s pass defense has improved, but still bends if forced into extended field-time.

If turnovers swing early, Miami’s defense — six sacks last week, thriving behind Brooks and Chubb — can shorten the field. But Pittsburgh leads the NFL with 10 players recording interceptions; a Tua mistake in cold weather is the path that keeps PIT in command.

Trading Takeaway

This is a run-game vs. injuries setup, and the market may be overweighting Pittsburgh’s home cold-weather edge while underpricing Watt’s absence against the NFL’s hottest rushing attack. Miami has been the cleaner, more consistent unit for the past month, and their matchup advantages show up directly where Pittsburgh is weakest.

Call: Miami Yes at 39¢.

🏈 NFL

🏀 NBA

🏒 NHL

🏀 NCAA Men’s Basketball

🏀 NCAA Men’s Basketball — Top 25

$12,710 — Knicks bought at 55¢ for Spurs vs. Knicks by OpOjogggg

$17,626 — Ravens bought at 54¢ for Spread: Ravens (-2.5) by Pwaddler

$11,198 — BetBoom Team bought at 53¢ for Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex (BO3) by BossOfEsports

$21,600 — Lightning bought at 54¢ for Panthers vs. Lightning by gmanas

$32,384 — Panthers bought at 46¢ for Panthers vs. Lightning by 1ronGhost

$15,237 — Celtics bought at 55¢ for Pistons vs. Celtics by OpOjogggg

We’ve built quick-hit games, but with a predictive twist. Sharpen your instinct for patterns, probabilities, and plays.

Prediction News Network delivers clear context and insight on tradable events.

We’re here to help you cash in on culture - the front page of tradable events, from the latest news to cultural context, and the market signals that tie them together. PNN coverage is informed both by the event itself and the current price, an intersection of culture and the market. For example:

Just like how Robinhood Snacks simplified financial news or Morning Brew made daily news digestible, we’re doing the same for prediction markets. PNN provides coverage of real-world events meeting real-time odds: cultural context and market movement in one place.

*This newsletter is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or betting advice. Always do your own research before making decisions. Prediction News Network and its contributors are not responsible for any actions taken based on this content. Prediction Market platforms (including Polymarket’s availability) legal status may vary by jurisdiction. U.S. access is subject to regulatory approvals and restrictions, which can change over time. Please review the official platform rules, terms, and applicable laws in your region before participating