Someone just bet $29,383 on "Will Alex Smalley win the PGA Championship?" in Kalshi's multi-outcome PGA Championship Winner market. The trade placed 183,644 YES contracts at 16¢ each, totaling $29,383. It was part of a 9-minute burst of heavy YES-side buying spanning 200 trades and $104,073 in volume, pushing the price up 1¢ from 16¢ to 17¢. The contract now sits at 17¢ on the ask, implying approximately a 17% probability of a Smalley victory.
📊 Last 200 trades: 200 trades over 10 minutes (11:03 AM to 11:12 AM ET), YES volume leads $96,025 to $8,061, price holding near 17¢. One $29,383 YES trade (183,644 contracts) accounts for 28% of the flow.
📊 Last 2,000 trades: 2,000 trades over 2.7 hours (8:29 AM to 11:12 AM ET), YES volume leads $146,596 to $37,889, price holding near 17¢.
📊 Past 12 hours: 5,000 trades over 11.9 hours (11:16 PM to 11:12 AM ET), flow roughly balanced — $213,471 YES vs $278,806 NO, price holding near 17¢.
🐋 About Whale Watch
You do not have to watch Kalshi all day — we do. Prediction News Network tracks every big bet on the Kalshi prediction-market exchange in real time and flags the whales the moment they hit. Each one gets written up below so you can see exactly what was bet, at what price, and whether the market moved.
What counts as a whale? Sports & crypto: $25,000+ · Parlays: $8,000+ · Politics, culture, economy: $5,000+
No takes. No predictions. Just the trade, the data, and the market reaction.
No takes. No predictions. Just the trade, the data, and the market reaction.
This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.