A taker stepped up on YES, landing on the YES side of "Will Matteo Arnaldi win the Tiafoe vs Arnaldi: Round Of 16 match?" — the YES side wins if Arnaldi takes the match. 100,000 YES contracts at 51¢ each, totaling $51,000. The book absorbed the trade cleanly, with price nudging just +1¢ from 50¢ to 51¢ across a 1.7-hour session already running 92% YES-weighted. The market currently sits at 51¢, implying a ~51% probability of an Arnaldi victory.
📊 Last 200 trades: 200 trades over 1.7 hours (9:57 AM to 11:40 AM ET), YES volume leads $258,042 to $23,255, price holding near 51¢.
📊 Last 840 trades: 840 trades over 11.9 hours (11:46 PM to 11:40 AM ET), YES volume leads $303,201 to $40,237, price holding near 51¢.
🐋 About Whale Watch
You do not have to watch Kalshi all day — we do. Prediction News Network tracks every big bet on the Kalshi prediction-market exchange in real time and flags the whales the moment they hit. Each one gets written up below so you can see exactly what was bet, at what price, and whether the market moved.
What counts as a whale? Sports & crypto: $25,000+ · Parlays: $8,000+ · Politics, culture, economy: $5,000+
No takes. No predictions. Just the trade, the data, and the market reaction.
No takes. No predictions. Just the trade, the data, and the market reaction.
This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.