Someone just bet $36,747 against "Will Casper Ruud win the ATP Rome?" — placing a sizable NO position on Kalshi's ATP Rome winner market. The trade moved 37,118 NO contracts at 99¢ each, totaling $36,747. Despite the size, the market absorbed the trade cleanly, with YES climbing from 2¢ to 3¢ as opposing YES flow dominated the same window. The NO side now sits bid 97¢/ask 98¢, implying roughly 2–3% probability that Ruud takes the title.
📊 Last 200 trades: 200 trades over 10 minutes (12:47 PM to 12:56 PM ET), NO volume leads $50,568 to $3,168, price holding near 3¢. One $36,748 NO trade (37,118 contracts) accounts for 68% of the flow.
📊 Last 2,000 trades: 2,000 trades over 51 minutes (12:06 PM to 12:56 PM ET), NO volume leads $378,927 to $35,197, as price moved from 17¢ to 3¢ (-14¢).
📊 Past 12 hours: 5,000 trades over 2.6 hours (10:23 AM to 12:56 PM ET), NO volume leads $436,102 to $183,882, as price moved from 14¢ to 3¢ (-11¢).
🐋 About Whale Watch
You do not have to watch Kalshi all day — we do. Prediction News Network tracks every big bet on the Kalshi prediction-market exchange in real time and flags the whales the moment they hit. Each one gets written up below so you can see exactly what was bet, at what price, and whether the market moved.
What counts as a whale? Sports & crypto: $25,000+ · Parlays: $8,000+ · Politics, culture, economy: $5,000+
No takes. No predictions. Just the trade, the data, and the market reaction.
No takes. No predictions. Just the trade, the data, and the market reaction.
This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.