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Prediction News Network delivers clear context and insight on tradable events, informed both by the event itself and the current price.

Trending Today: According to The Verge, the New York Times sued Perplexity for producing ‘verbatim’ copies of its work. Will the New York Times settle the OpenAI lawsuit?

Today’s Predictions

  • Cloudflare Critical Incident Before Dec 31? No

  • Big Ten Championship: Ohio State vs Indiana — Ohio State

  • SEC Championship: Georgia vs Alabama — Alabama

Random Selections

  • Cloudflare Critical Incident Before Dec 31? Yes

  • Big Ten Championship: Ohio State vs Indiana — Indiana

  • SEC Championship: Georgia vs Alabama — Georgia

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What’s Happening: Cloudflare just logged its second major outage in under three weeks — a ~25-minute global disruption on Dec. 5, triggered by a configuration change made while deploying emergency WAF/body-parsing updates to help mitigate the newly weaponized React2Shell vulnerability. The second change unexpectedly hit a long-standing bug in Cloudflare’s older FL1 proxy, producing widespread 500 errors across services like LinkedIn, Zoom, Canva, X, Coinbase, and more, impacting ~28% of HTTP traffic.

This follows the Nov. 18 bot-feature-file incident — Cloudflare’s worst outage since 2019 — and adds to a cluster of infra stress events across AWS, Azure, and others. Cloudflare insists both outages were internal config errors, not attacks. With resiliency upgrades still not fully deployed, the back-to-back failures raise the odds of another mis-deployment or cascading issue before year-end.

Market Pricing

  • Yes: 26¢

  • No: 75¢

  • Volume: $16,476 on Polymarket

  • Resolution: The market resolves Yes only if Cloudflare classifies any incident as Critical (red) before Dec. 31, 11:59 PM ET.

Scenarios:

1) Another rushed security fix breaks a core system — Cloudflare is still rolling out mitigations for the React2Shell vulnerability, and the Dec. 5 outage happened because a rapid WAF-related config change triggered an older proxy bug. If another urgent update unexpectedly affects routing, WAF parsing, or proxy logic, traffic could fail globally again.

2) Datacenter maintenance or rerouting triggers a chain reaction — Cloudflare has a heavy maintenance schedule this month, meaning traffic is constantly being shifted between locations. If one region misroutes or overloads during a maintenance window, the ripple could extend across multiple regions and take down core services.

Trading Takeaway: Cloudflare is clearly in a high-variance period, with two global outages in 17 days and heavy config churn tied to urgent security mitigations. Liquidity is modest, spreads are tight enough for directional positioning. Call: At 26¢, Yes is overpriced unless Cloudflare retroactively flags Dec. 5 as Critical. No at 75¢.

What’s Happening: No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana hit Indianapolis tonight for a true heavyweight title fight — undefeated vs. undefeated, CFP No. 1 seed on the line, and a de facto Heisman showdown between Julian Sayin and Fernando Mendoza. Ohio State rolls in off a 27–9 demolition of Michigan, sporting the nation’s No. 1 defense and a passing attack built around Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate.

Indiana arrives with the most balanced offense OSU has faced since Texas: an RPO-heavy, rhythm machine behind Mendoza, RB Roman Hemby, and a deep WR room. IU’s front seven is one of the most disruptive units in the country and is built specifically to muddy zone looks and force OSU into longer-developing throws.

Both teams have been methodical, physical, and unshakably consistent — this is the best-on-best matchup the Big Ten has ever staged.

Market Pricing

  • Indiana: 37¢ (▲1)

  • Ohio State: 63¢ (▼1)

  • Line movement: Tight, steady OSU premium all week; IU nibbling upward but hasn’t cracked 40¢.

  • Volume: $1,897,146+

  • Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET

Scenarios: If Indiana’s RPO game stays on schedule, OSU’s linebackers get stressed horizontally and Mendoza gets his back-shoulder rhythm early — that can flip the script and create a rare multi-score first half against the Buckeyes.

If Ohio State protects Sayin like it did vs. Michigan, Indiana’s pressure won’t land often enough, OSU can dictate tempo with the run game late, and the IU secondary eventually gets stretched vertically.

Trading Takeaway: Both teams profile as top-two national units with mirrored strengths. But OSU’s depth and second-half dominance (+18 PPG over opponents in last 11 games) still travel best in a neutral-site crunch. Indiana’s path requires early scoring and sustained pressure on Sayin; OSU’s path requires simply playing to its median. Liquidity is strong, prices stable, and the edge leans Buckeyes. Call: Ohio State Yes at 63¢ — modest value in the superior depth, defense, and late-game profile.

What’s Happening: The SEC Championship kicks at 4 p.m. ET in Atlanta, with Georgia (11-1) and Alabama (10-2) renewing the league’s defining rivalry. It’s their 5th SEC title meeting, all previously won by Bama, and the Tide also took the Sept. 27 matchup 24–21 in Athens. Georgia enters with one of the nation’s toughest defenses (16.7 PPG allowed, elite run-fit profile) and a ground-led attack behind Nate Frazier and dual-threat QB Gunner Stockton.

Alabama’s built around Ty Simpson, a top-efficiency passer who carved Georgia in the first meeting (276 yards, 3 total TD). Both are effectively in the CFP, but the winner locks a bye, and Alabama needs the trophy to remove all doubt.

Market Pricing

  • Georgia: 52¢ (▼2)

  • Alabama: 48¢ (▲2)

  • Line movement: Georgia has softened from midweek highs near 55–57¢; recent trading shows incremental Tide buy-in but no decisive break.

  • Volume: $1.49M+ on Kalshi

  • Game time: 4 p.m. ET

Scenarios: If Georgia wins the trenches early, leaning on Frazier and Stockton’s designed runs, Alabama’s weaker run-defense profile (152 allowed vs Auburn last week) could force longer Simpson possessions and shrink the explosive-pass window. That script pulls this toward a methodical Georgia win.

If Alabama hits explosives or steals an early possession, DeBoer’s teams historically play downhill after fast starts. A quick Tide lead would re-create September’s game state—Georgia chasing, more pass-heavy, and more turnover-prone (Stockton INTs in 4 of last 5).

Trading Takeaway: These are coin-flip rosters with near-identical defensive YPP, but Georgia brings the sturdier run game and slightly cleaner recent form; Alabama brings the QB ceiling and the matchup history. With the market now tight at 52/48, and sentiment shading toward Georgia already priced in, value sits with Alabama Yes at 48¢, especially given DeBoer’s track record vs elite opponents and Simpson’s prior success vs this defense.

🏆 Today’s Games

4 CFB Championship Games: At noon ET, BYU (11–1) is a heavy underdog at 19¢ to Texas Tech (82¢). At 4 pm ET, Georgia is a slight favorite at 53¢ over Alabama (10–2, 48¢). Tonight at 8 pm ET, Duke (7–5) is a 39¢ underdog to Virginia (10–2, 62¢), and Ohio State (12–0) enters as a 63¢ favorite against Indiana (12–0, 38¢).

10 Top 25 College Basketball Games: Five of the 10 feature two ranked teams, and eight top 10 teams play today. Featured game: #4 Duke (52%) vs #7 Michigan State (48%).

7 NBA games tonight: Warriors (28%) and Cleveland (73%) duel in The Land as Dubs are on two game losing streak. Minnesota (80%) eyes its 5th straight win. Texas showdown as the Rockets (77%) battle the Mavericks (25%) at 8:30 pm ET.

12 NHL games on the slate, early game starts at 12:30 pm ET, three games close out the night at 10 pm ET.

🐳 Polymarket Whales Today

$207,923Texas Tech Red Raiders bought at 53¢ for Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-12.5) by Comeback12345

$199,640Yes sold at 92¢ for Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? by okurage

$19,417Pistons bought at 85¢ for Bucks vs. Pistons by comon119

$19,467Nets bought at 60¢ for Pelicans vs. Nets by gopatriots

🤩 New Markets

  • 🎬 Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros.?

    • Before June — 94% No

  • 🏛️ Will the 2026 NDAA become law this year?

    • Yes — 85%

    • No — 20¢

  • 🏛️ Will Nancy Mace resign before the midterms?

    • Yes — 16%

    • No — 83¢

  • 💵 Will Solana end 2026 over $500?

    • Yes — 3%

    • No — 97¢

  • 🚀 SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap

    • $1T+ — 11%

    • No IPO before 2028 — 24%

  • 🎤 Eurovision Winner 2026

    • Sweden — 21%

    • Israel — 13%

🎮 Play Games

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💸 What is PNN?

Prediction News Network delivers clear context and insight on tradable events.

We’re here to help you cash in on culture - the front page of tradable events, from the latest news to cultural context, and the market signals that tie them together. PNN coverage is informed both by the event itself and the current price, an intersection of culture and the market. For example:

Dancing experts believe Alix Earle is a near equal to Robert Irwin, a near coin flip winner, but markets give her only a 27% chance to win. Alix performs first, look to buy and flip quickly after her individual score as she is unlikely to secure the ultimate victory, but will be competitive the whole night.

Dancing with the Stars, Season 34

Just like how Robinhood Snacks simplified financial news or Morning Brew made daily news digestible, we’re doing the same for prediction markets. PNN provides coverage of real-world events meeting real-time odds: cultural context and market movement in one place.

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