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CarMax Traders Edge Toward Yes as EPS Beat Odds Hit 55%
❓ What’s Happening
The market is asking: Will CarMax (KMX) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? As of Sept 22, “Yes” leads at 55%, up 5 points. Traders are focused on CarMax’s scheduled Sept 25 earnings release, where Bloomberg’s consensus non-GAAP EPS forecast sits at $1.03.
📈 Market Snapshot
Prices: Yes at 56¢, No at 46¢
Volume: $6,506 traded
Chart: The line spiked early near 65%, slid below 50% on Sept 20, and has since stabilized at 55%.
🔍 Why It Matters
CarMax has a recent track record of positive surprises: last quarter it reported $1.38 EPS vs. $1.18 consensus, a 16.95% beat. The upcoming August-quarter consensus is tighter, at $1.03 vs. $0.85 last year. With mixed analyst sentiment — one revision up, one down in the past month — traders are weighing whether the streak of beats can continue.
⏭️ What to Watch Next
If CarMax reports non-GAAP EPS above $1.03 on Sept 25, this market resolves to “Yes.”
If the figure is missing from the filing or delayed more than 45 days, the rules force a “No.”
🚨 A Better Way to Trade Earnings
Stocks can pop, drop, or whipsaw after earnings. But with Polymarket's new earning markets, trading earnings can be straightforward with simple, binary markets like:
Will Tesla beat the estimated EPS?
Will Nvidia mention AI?
Will Costco beat its quarterly earnings estimate?
It’s a simple yes/no prediction. If you’re right, you win — no matter what else happens to the stock during or after the call. View live odds that update during the call and stake your view in seconds.
This week's big earnings: Costco, Micron Technologies, Carmax, and more
We’re super bullish on this new asset class because it’s where real-world curiosity meets real-time news. Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market to make a trade on tech, politics, sports, or any other major event.
🏆 Today’s Games
NFL Week 3 - Monday Night Football on ESPN @ 8:15 pm ET
MLB Games: 3 - First Pitch @ 7:15 pm ET
WNBA Playoffs: None tonight; (Mercury vs Lynx + Fever vs Aces tomorrow)
⚾ Featured Game
Context
The Brewers (95-61) open a three-game series at Petco Park against the Padres (85-71), with Milwaukee already clinching the NL Central and chasing MLB’s best record. San Diego, priced as a –125 favorite, remains three games back of the Dodgers in the NL West race.
Notable
Freddy Peralta (17-6, 2.65 ERA) has surrendered one or fewer runs in seven of his last eight outings, anchoring a Milwaukee rotation that owns MLB-best numbers with runners in scoring position. Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.81 ERA) counters for San Diego, dominating at home with a 2.22 ERA and .170 opponent average, while also posting sub-3.00 ERAs over the past two months.
Lean
With both aces in form — Peralta’s 1.00 ERA stretch since the break and Pivetta’s stingy splits at Petco — early scoring should be scarce, pointing to the Under 7.0. San Diego’s slight edge comes from home field and a surging Luis Arraez and Fernando Tatis Jr., though Milwaukee’s steadiness makes this a true toss-up.
Costco EPS Beat Odds Surge to 77% Ahead of Sept. 25 Report
❓ What’s Happening
Traders are betting on whether Costco Wholesale (COST) will beat its quarterly EPS estimate, with the market now giving a 77% chance of a beat. The company is scheduled to report earnings on September 25, 2025, with Bloomberg’s consensus estimate at $5.82 non-GAAP EPS, up from $5.15 a year ago, reflecting a +12.8% year-over-year increase.
📈 Market Snapshot
Yes (beat): 77¢ | No: 24¢
Total volume: $167,182 traded.
Chart shows volatility, but odds have climbed steadily, holding above 70% since Sep 20, peaking near 80%.
🔍 Why It Matters
The market resolves to “Yes” if Costco reports EPS greater than $5.82 in its Form 8-K. Analysts have revised estimates slightly higher over the past month (from $5.79 to $5.81). Recent results reinforce this optimism: May 2025 EPS came in at $4.28 vs. $4.25 consensus, while August 2024 delivered $5.15 vs. $5.05. Still, COST has underperformed Walmart (+4.4% YTD vs. Walmart’s +13.6%), and competitive pressure from Amazon’s grocery push looms.
💡 Trader Takeaway
At 77%, markets are pricing a clear edge toward an EPS beat.
Ravens Surge to 69¢, Lions Trail at 33¢ Ahead of MNF Clash
❓ What’s Happening
The market is asking: Who will win Monday Night Football — the Detroit Lions or Baltimore Ravens? Baltimore leads at 69¢ to Detroit’s 33¢, as bettors weigh Lamar Jackson’s perfect 3-0 record against Jared Goff. NFL Research notes the Ravens are 6-1 all-time vs. Detroit, with Jackson owning a 134.2 passer rating in their head-to-heads, nearly double Goff’s 72.7.
📈 Market Snapshot
Ravens: 69¢, strong favorite after opening dominance.
Lions: 33¢, despite a 52-point Week 2 explosion vs. Chicago.
Spread tight: 2¢, with the Lions bid at 31¢ and ask at 33¢.
Heavy action: over $953K traded
🔍 Why It Matters
This isn’t just another early-season matchup — both franchises are eyeing a Super Bowl run after falling in the Divisional Round last year. Baltimore is averaging 40.5 points per game behind Jackson and Derrick Henry, while Detroit just dropped a 50-burger in Week 2. Traders are leaning on history: the Ravens crushed the Lions 38–6 last October, and Jackson remains undefeated against NFC North opponents at home.
⏭️ What to Watch Next
If Derrick Henry rebounds from his 23-yard dud in Week 2, Baltimore’s 69¢ line could firm even higher.
If Goff replicates his 5-TD Week 2 outing, Detroit’s 33¢ contract could see a sharp rally.
💡 Trader Takeaway
At 69¢, the market prices Baltimore as a heavy favorite — reflecting both historical dominance and Jackson’s primetime record. Detroit backers are betting on a statistical outlier: Goff finally breaking through against Jackson.
🤩 New Markets
Microstrategy Bitcoin bet: There is an 82% chance the company announces a purchase between Sept 23–29 — traders are betting on the firm sticking to its BTC-buying playbook.
MrBeast viewership watch: Traders price a 44% chance his next video clears 60M views in week one, signaling skepticism around viral upside despite past track records.
NFL Week 3 Scorigami: Just 5% chance a never-before-seen score happens on Monday Night Football.
🐳 Polymarket Biggest Predictions Today
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?
TheSpiritofUkrain bought No at 97¢ ($124,039) — 2h ago
Brewers vs. Padres
ImmadIPulikeshi bought Brewers at 50¢ ($105,875) — 6h ago
Brewers vs. Padres
ImmadIPulikeshi bought Brewers at 50¢ ($298,618) — 8h ago
🎮 Play Our Games
Just like the New York Times, we’ve got quick-hit games — but with a predictive twist. Whether you’re matching emojis or hitting 21, they’re built to sharpen your instinct for patterns, probabilities, and plays. More coming soon…
👉 Emoji Match | 🃏 21 Blackjack
💸 Start Predicting Now with Polymarket
🚨 Earnings Season, Simplified
Stocks can pop, drop, or whipsaw after earnings. But with Polymarket, predicting earnings is straightforward with simple, binary markets like:
- Will Tesla beat EPS?
- Will Nvidia mention AI?
If you’re right, you win. That simple.
See Live Earnings Markets →This newsletter is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or betting advice. Always do your own research before making decisions. Prediction News Network and its contributors are not responsible for any actions taken based on this content. Polymarket’s availability and legal status may vary by jurisdiction. U.S. access is subject to regulatory approvals and restrictions, which can change over time. Please review the official Polymarket rules, terms, and applicable laws in your region before participating