The big picture: U.S. prediction markets in winter 2025

Winter 2025 is the first time the United States has a full menu of legally recognized prediction markets—often called event contracts—operating at national scale.

Two platforms dominate real-money prediction trading:

  • Kalshi – a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM) offering yes/no contracts on politics, macro data, sports, entertainment, and more.

  • Polymarket US (QCX) – a newly designated DCM and clearinghouse structure that lets Polymarket, previously crypto-only, re-enter the U.S. under CFTC oversight with fully collateralized all-or-nothing event contracts.

Alongside them, Railbird Exchange and CME Group/FanDuel event contracts focus largely on sports and financial indicators, rounding out the regulated landscape.

At the same time, several big gambling and fintech brands (Fanatics, Robinhood, Crypto.com) are testing prediction-style products, sometimes clashing with state gambling regulators over whether they are derivatives or unlicensed sports betting.

Where you can trade: main U.S. platforms

1. Kalshi

  • Regulation: Full CFTC DCM and derivatives clearing status; federal court decisions and a dropped CFTC appeal paved the way for listing U.S. election contracts and broader offerings.

  • Collaboration: Integrations with brokerages like Robinhood and others make Kalshi contracts appear inside mainstream trading apps.

  • Markets:

    • Congressional control, presidential races, turnout and election timing

    • CPI, Fed interest rate decisions, unemployment, GDP

    • Sports, pop-culture awards, and entertainment events.

Contracts are binary yes/no trades between $0.01 and $0.99, settled in cash through the clearinghouse.

2. Polymarket US (QCX)

  • Background: After being fined and pushed out of the U.S. in 2022, Polymarket acquired QCX, a regulated exchange and clearing organization, to offer compliant event contracts.

  • Regulatory status: Designated as a DCM in mid-2025 and granted CFTC no-action relief on reporting requirements for fully collateralized event contracts.

  • Launch focus: A U.S. app that initially emphasizes sports markets, then expands to politics, economics, and culture as approvals roll out.

Under the hood, Polymarket still uses the all-or-nothing $1 payout structure familiar from its crypto platform but wrapped in a regulated venue.

3. Railbird, CME, and sportsbook tie-ins

  • Railbird Exchange became a DCM in 2025, emphasizing sports-centric event contracts.

  • CME Group + FanDuel and similar partnerships explore listing standardized event contracts (for example, sports outcomes or macro indicators) that can be accessed via licensed sportsbooks or brokerages.

These offerings blur the line between financial derivatives and sports wagering, and they’re being watched closely by both the CFTC and state gaming regulators.

What you can trade: main categories of U.S. event contracts

Offerings vary by platform and state, but as of winter 2025 a typical U.S. user (who passes KYC and lives in a permitted jurisdiction) might see:

1. Politics & elections

  • Presidential election odds: Who wins in 2028, or key swing states.

  • Congressional control: Which party controls the House or Senate after a given election cycle.

  • Policy outcomes: Passage of major bills, government shutdown odds, or confirmation of nominees.

These markets give continuous, probability-style pricing for outcomes that used to be mostly argued about on cable news.

2. Economics & macro data

  • Future CPI readings (e.g., “Will December year-over-year CPI be above 3.5%?”)

  • Interest rate decisions and Fed meeting outcomes

  • Unemployment, GDP growth, or major index levels at specific dates

Institutional traders and hedge funds increasingly treat these as hedging tools and as another way to read market expectations.

3. Sports & entertainment

Thanks to Railbird, Kalshi’s self-certified contracts, and Polymarket’s U.S. rollout, sports and pop culture are now major categories:

  • Winners of the Super Bowl, College Football Playoff, NBA Finals, and World Series

  • Player performance milestones

  • Award shows like the Oscars, Emmys, or Grammys

  • Box-office totals, TV rating thresholds, or chart positions

These compete directly with traditional props offered by sportsbooks but are structured as CFTC-regulated event contracts.

4. Crypto, tech, and other niches

  • Bitcoin or Ether above/below a level on a given date

  • Milestones for big tech launches (AI models, device release timelines)

  • Weather, climate, and other specialty markets where objective data sources exist

Not every category appears on every platform, and some states or regulators still restrict specific topics.

How the offerings differ: key dimensions to compare

When you look at “full prediction market offerings” in the U.S. in winter 2025, you’re really comparing along a few axes:

  • Regulatory wrapper

    • Kalshi, Polymarket US, Railbird, and CME-linked contracts are federally regulated derivatives.

    • Some sportsbook/fintech products resemble prediction markets but are treated as state-licensed gambling or are under enforcement pressure where they lack licenses.

  • Collateral and settlement

    • DCM-listed contracts are fully collateralized and cleared through registered clearinghouses like QC Clearing or Kalshi’s clearing setup.

    • Payouts are usually $1 per winning contract, $0 per losing contract, making prices easy to read as probabilities.

  • Access and UX

    • Broker integrations (e.g., Robinhood + Kalshi) put event contracts inside familiar trading apps

    • Polymarket’s U.S. app tries to bring its slick crypto UX to a regulated environment.

Others to note: WeBull, Kalshi, Interactive Brokers, SI Predict, Coinbase, Manifold