1. What you need before you trade
Polymarket is a blockchain prediction market where you trade YES and NO shares on real-world events using USDC stablecoin on networks like Polygon and Ethereum.
Before trading, you’ll need:
A compatible crypto wallet (e.g., MetaMask or a built-in wallet, depending on your region)
USDC to deposit
Regulatory clearance in your country (U.S. users are being onboarded via regulated entities; some countries restrict access entirely)
Always confirm that using Polymarket is legal where you live.
2. Step-by-step: making your first Polymarket trade
Step 1 – Create an account and connect a wallet
Go to the Polymarket site and sign up with your email or wallet, depending on the flow in your region.
If prompted, complete KYC (identity verification), especially on regulated platforms.
Connect your wallet and approve the basic permissions so Polymarket’s contracts can interact with your USDC.
Step 2 – Deposit USDC
Click Deposit in the app. Polymarket’s docs describe several options:
Transfer Crypto:
Choose Transfer Crypto.
Select your token and network (e.g., USDC on Polygon or Ethereum).
Copy the deposit address or scan the QR code and send funds from your wallet or exchange. Only send supported token–chain combinations.
Deposit from an exchange (e.g., Coinbase):
In Polymarket, choose Coinbase (or Exchange/Other).
Buy USDC on the exchange, then withdraw it directly to your Polymarket deposit address.
Card or bank methods:
Some regions support buying USDC via debit/credit card or bank transfers; U.S. users may face restrictions for compliance reasons.
Deposits sent on Ethereum can be automatically bridged to Polygon, where trading is usually cheaper and faster.
Step 3 – Find a market
Go to the Markets page to see all available questions. Use search, filters, and sorting to narrow by category (e.g., politics, crypto, sports).
Click a market that interests you and read:
The question (e.g., “Will Bitcoin close above $100,000 on Dec 31, 2026?”)
The rules and resolution source (which tells you exactly how “YES” vs “NO” will be judged)
Step 4 – Understand the price
Each outcome is tokenized as a binary share: one token for YES, one for NO, backed by the same collateral pool.
If YES = $0.27, the market is implying about 27% probability that the event will happen.
NO will trade around $0.73, and together they sum close to $1 (ignoring small fees and spreads).
Ask yourself: Do I think the real probability is higher or lower than what the price suggests?
Step 5 – Place an order (market vs limit)
On the trade panel, choose:
Market order – executes immediately at the best available price in the order book. Great for simplicity, but you may get slightly worse prices in thin markets.
Limit order – you set the exact price you’re willing to pay or receive. The order sits in the book until someone matches it.
Example:
You think “YES” at $0.40 is underpriced.
The current best sell is $0.42.
You place a limit buy at $0.40 for 100 shares.
If the price dips and someone sells to you at $0.40, you now hold 100 YES shares for $40.
Step 6 – Manage and close your position
Once you hold shares you can:
Sell before resolution – lock in profit or cut losses as the price moves.
Hold to settlement – after the event is resolved by the oracle, winning shares pay $1, losing shares pay $0, automatically from the collateral pool.
Your open positions and PnL (profit and loss) are shown in your portfolio page inside the app.
3. Simple Polymarket trading strategies for beginners
1) Start small and specialize
Begin with tiny stakes while you learn the interface and settlement rules.
Focus on one niche (U.S. politics, crypto, tech, sports) so you’re not competing across areas you don’t follow closely.
2) Think in probabilities, not absolutes
Convert prices to odds: $0.62 = 62% implied probability.
Ask: “Is the true chance higher or lower than 62%?”
Look for cases where public sentiment is overreacting to news, polls, or social media.
3) Always read the rules
Many beginners lose money not because they were wrong about reality, but because they misread the resolution criteria:
Does “by December 31” mean before or at the close of trading that day?
Which exact data source is used—an official site, a specific news outlet, or an on-chain metric?
If something is ambiguous, consider staying out.
4) Use limit orders in illiquid markets
In thin markets, market orders can give you terrible fills. Placing patient limit orders:
Lets you choose your price
Often earns you the spread, especially if you’re providing liquidity on both YES and NO sides
5) Mind time and liquidity
Long-dated markets might look cheap but tie up capital for months or years.
Short-dated markets move sharply as the deadline approaches—great for traders who watch closely but dangerous if you’re not paying attention.
4. Example Polymarket trades
These are simplified examples of how traders think (not recommendations):
Election market: You follow polling data and ground reports that suggest a candidate is underrated. YES trades at $0.38; you think their real win chance is ~50%. You buy YES and plan to sell if new polls close the gap
Crypto milestone market: A market asks whether Ethereum gas fees will average below a certain level after an upgrade. You’re a crypto dev, understand the roadmap, and think the market underestimates the impact of scaling.
Tech launch market: You follow hardware leaks and supply-chain rumors closely and trade YES/NO on whether a device ships by a deadline.
In each case, your informational edge matters more than pure luck.
Final thoughts
Learning how to trade on Polymarket is mainly about:
Getting comfortable with USDC deposits and withdrawals
Understanding YES/NO pricing as probabilities
Using limit orders and careful position sizing
Respecting legal and market risk
Treat your first trades as tuition, not a get-rich-quick plan. If you build the habit of thinking in probabilities and reading rules carefully, Polymarket can become a powerful tool for sharpening your forecasting skills—win or lose on any given market.