📖 New here? How to read this post
Every day, new prediction markets launch on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade on real-world outcomes. Think of this post as a quick vibe check on what’s new in culture, politics, and the world — when you see markets pop up for the Oscars, a surprise album drop, Saturday Night Live hosts, or the next Fed decision, it tells you something about what people are paying attention to right now.
How to read this: On Kalshi, an event is the big question being asked — for example, “Who will win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?” Each event contains one or more markets, which are the specific yes-or-no outcomes you can actually trade — like “Will 1949 / Fatherland win Best Picture?” at a given price. When an event has numeric thresholds (“Will the S&P 500 close above 5,500?”), those individual levels are called brackets.
For each new event below, we include a link to find it on Kalshi so you can see live pricing. The first thing to do with any new market is understand the rules — then decide if you have an edge.
Here's every new market that launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours (Sep 21 at 8:30 AM ET through Sep 22 at 8:30 AM ET). Our scan picked up 546 unique markets across 64 new events, plus 4,808 recurring bracket markets.
⚡ What's Actionable Right Now
The launches from the past 24h with the tightest spreads and live two-sided quotes — i.e. the ones you can actually trade right now.
EV commodity prices on Sep 22, 2026: Above 1216.05 bid 97¢ / ask 98¢, Above 1206.05 bid 97¢ / ask 98¢, Above 1196.05 bid 98¢ / ask 99¢
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?: Eric Daugherty bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Mark Levin bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Jake Paul last 1¢ (book empty)
Moonshot AI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel): Above 8% bid 95¢ / ask 96¢, Above 6% bid 95¢ / ask 96¢, Above 16% bid 81¢ / ask 82¢
OpenAI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel): Above 19.5% bid 95¢ / ask 96¢, Above 18% bid 96¢ / ask 97¢, Above 28.5% bid 16¢ / ask 19¢
Google share of requests on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel): Above 7.5% bid 96¢ / ask 97¢, Above 6% bid 98¢ / ask 99¢, Above 18% bid 3¢ / ask 4¢
All Events — every new event from the past 24h, at a glance
- Alaska commercial salmon harvest in 2026?
- Brazil GDP growth YoY in Q3 2026
- Diesel prices tomorrow
- EV commodity prices on Sep 22, 2026
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 23, 2026?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 23, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 23, 2026?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 23, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 23, 2026?
- Fear & Greed Index on Oct 16, 2026?
- Oscar nominees: Achievement in Casting
- Oscar nominees: Best Supporting Actor
- Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor
- Pro Football Championship Halftime Show: Headliner(s)
- Runner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 23, 2026
- Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Sep 23, 2026
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 23, 2026
- Who will host Saturday Night Live Season 52?
- Alberta referendum: Remain vote share?
- Holborn and St Pancras by-election: 3rd place
- Midterms: Blue trickle?
- Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?
- Serbian parliamentary election: Student List vote share?
- Serbian parliamentary election: voter turnout
- Texas Railroad Commissioner & Senate combo
- When will Greenland call a snap election?
- Who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?
- Will Saxony-Anhalt call a snap election in 2026?
- How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (9/21-9/27)
- How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
- How many House seats will Independents win in the Midterms?
- How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
- How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
- How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms?
- How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
- Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 22, 2026?
- When will the White House announce an end to its press ban?
- When will Trump name an AI czar?
- When will Trump officially rename AI?
- Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
- Who will Donald Trump talk to in Sep 2026?
- Will Putin visit the U.S. in 2026?
- Will the US ban diesel exports before Election Day?
- Will Trump publicly call for a global AI slowdown?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic share of requests on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- Anthropic share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- Best AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
- DeepSeek share of requests on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- Google market share this week
- Google share of requests on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- Moonshot AI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- Most popular AI this week
- OpenAI market share this week
- OpenAI share of requests on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- OpenAI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- OpenRouter token usage in Sep 21–27
- Qwen market share this week
- Tencent market share this week
- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 28th
- Top Coding AI this week
- Xiaomi market share this week
All New Events
📊 Economics — 4 events, 44 markets
Diesel prices tomorrow — 21 brackets — listed Sep 22, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET
View market strikes (21 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above $6.580 | — |
| Above $6.575 | — |
| Above $6.570 | — |
| Above $6.565 | — |
| Above $6.560 | — |
| Above $6.555 | — |
| Above $6.550 | — |
| Above $6.545 | — |
| Above $6.540 | — |
| Above $6.535 | — |
| Above $6.530 | — |
| Above $6.525 | — |
| Above $6.520 | — |
| Above $6.515 | — |
| Above $6.510 | — |
| Above $6.505 | — |
| Above $6.500 | — |
| Above $6.495 | — |
| Above $6.490 | — |
| Above $6.485 | — |
| Above $6.480 | last 99¢ (book empty) |
EV commodity prices on Sep 22, 2026 — 15 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 1296.05 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1286.05 | last 2¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1276.05 | — |
| Above 1266.05 | bid 3¢ / ask 8¢ |
| Above 1256.05 | bid 23¢ / ask 30¢ |
| Above 1246.05 | bid 53¢ / ask 68¢ |
| Above 1236.05 | bid 83¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above 1226.05 | bid 95¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above 1216.05 | bid 97¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above 1206.05 | bid 97¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above 1196.05 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 1186.05 | bid 98¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1176.05 | bid 94¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1166.05 | bid 95¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1156.05 | bid 88¢ (no asks) |
Alaska commercial salmon harvest in 2026? — 5 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 10:07 AM ET
View market strikes (5 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| At least 95 million | bid 6¢ / ask 70¢ |
| At least 90 million | bid 6¢ (no asks) |
| At least 85 million | bid 51¢ / ask 99¢ |
| At least 80 million | bid 47¢ / ask 99¢ |
| At least 75 million | bid 51¢ / ask 99¢ |
Brazil GDP growth YoY in Q3 2026 — 3 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 10:12 AM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 1.6% | bid 13¢ / ask 22¢ |
| Above 1.5% | bid 15¢ / ask 24¢ |
| Above 1.4% | bid 17¢ / ask 26¢ |
💹 Financials — 6 events, 80 markets
30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 23, 2026? — 15 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 22, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET
10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 23, 2026? — 15 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 22, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET
7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 23, 2026? — 15 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 22, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET
5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 23, 2026? — 15 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 22, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET
2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 23, 2026? — 15 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 22, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET
Fear & Greed Index on Oct 16, 2026? — 5 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
Tracking: Extreme Greed, Extreme Fear, Neutral, Greed, Fear
🎬 Entertainment — 9 events, 102 markets
Who will host Saturday Night Live Season 52? — 48 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 2:34 PM ET
View market options (25 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | — |
| Timothée Chalamet | bid 2¢ / ask 12¢ |
| Taylor Swift | — |
| Tate McRae | — |
| SZA | — |
| Sydney Sweeney | — |
| Steve Carell | — |
| Simone Biles | — |
| Serena Williams | — |
| Sarah Silverman | — |
| Ryan Gosling | — |
| Reneé Rapp | — |
| Ramy Youssef | — |
| Quinta Brunson | — |
| PinkPantheress | bid 2¢ / ask 30¢ |
| Peso Pluma | — |
| Pedro Pascal | — |
| Paul Rudd | — |
| Patrick Mahomes | — |
| Olivia Rodrigo | — |
| Noah Kahan | — |
| MrBeast | — |
| Miley Cyrus | — |
| Margot Robbie | — |
| LeBron James | — |
+ 23 more outcomes
Runner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 23, 2026 — 15 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 22, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET
Tracking: Zid, Yeshanagula (From "The Paradise") (Telugu), Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip, Training Season (Live), Shararat, SaWaDiKa (Official Music Video), Parvati, new trick, KALYANI (Remix), Golden, Dai Dai, Casa Tupka Anthemo | @YoYoHoneySingh feat. Priyanshi | Full Video, Basinga Balaalu, Barbaadi, Barsaat
Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 23, 2026 — 15 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 22, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET
Tracking: Zid, Yeshanagula (From "The Paradise") (Telugu), Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip, Training Season (Live), Shararat, SaWaDiKa (Official Music Video), Parvati, new trick, KALYANI (Remix), Golden, Dai Dai, Casa Tupka Anthemo | @YoYoHoneySingh feat. Priyanshi | Full Video, Basinga Balaalu, Barbaadi, Barsaat
Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Sep 23, 2026 — 15 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 22, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET
Tracking: your verity - CG5 × Horror Skunx (original song), WTF GOIN, Todo Lo Fue, Sunflower, new trick, Lord Verity - Master of Humanity (song), Let’s Get Married, KATSEYE (캣츠아이) "Animal" Official MV, KATSEYE (캣츠아이) 'Hootie Frutti' Official MV, Joseph, Golden, Dai Dai, Choosin' Texas, BloodHound Q50 - My Girl (Official Music Video), AH HA
Oscar nominees: Achievement in Casting — 4 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 2:07 PM ET
View market options (4 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Project Hail Mary | bid 9¢ / ask 14¢ |
| The Invite | bid 24¢ / ask 29¢ |
| The Debut | bid 50¢ / ask 59¢ |
| All of a Sudden | bid 10¢ / ask 19¢ |
Time's Person of the Year for 2026 — 2 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 5:23 PM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Chris Wright | bid 1¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Pete Hegseth | bid 1¢ / ask 3¢ |
Pro Football Championship Halftime Show: Headliner(s): Madonna (bid 7¢ / ask 40¢) — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 6:37 PM ET
Oscar nominees: Best Supporting Actor: Guitarricadelafuente (bid 28¢ / ask 31¢) — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 2:03 PM ET
Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor: Guitarricadelafuente (bid 5¢ / ask 7¢) — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 2:02 PM ET
🗳️ Elections — 10 events, 56 markets
Holborn and St Pancras by-election: 3rd place — 15 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 1:47 PM ET
View market options (15 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Workers Party | bid 4¢ / ask 11¢ |
| UK VOICE safer and stronger UK | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| UKIP - NO to Illegal Immigration | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Tom Darwood | bid 1¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Reform UK | bid 42¢ / ask 43¢ |
| Rejoin EU | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Restore Britain | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Official Monster Raving Loony Party | bid 1¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Liberal Democrats | bid 5¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Labour Party | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Green Party | last 3¢ (book empty) |
| Christian Peoples Alliance | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Conservative Party | bid 43¢ / ask 44¢ |
| Climate Party | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Communist League | last 1¢ (book empty) |
Who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia? — 10 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 3:14 PM ET
View market options (10 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Yuri Fulmer | bid 3¢ / ask 7¢ |
| Steve Kooner | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Stockwell Day | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Sheldon Clare | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Lorne Doerkson | bid 7¢ / ask 23¢ |
| Iain Black | bid 3¢ / ask 15¢ |
| Harman Bhangu | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Chip Wilson | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Claire Rattée | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Caroline Elliott | bid 11¢ / ask 28¢ |
Serbian parliamentary election: voter turnout — 9 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 1:47 PM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| At least 4,200,000 | bid 30¢ / ask 42¢ |
| At least 4,050,000 | bid 49¢ / ask 50¢ |
| At least 3,900,000 | bid 82¢ / ask 83¢ |
| At least 3,750,000 | bid 92¢ / ask 93¢ |
| At least 3,600,000 | bid 96¢ / ask 97¢ |
| At least 3,450,000 | bid 97¢ / ask 98¢ |
| At least 3,300,000 | bid 97¢ / ask 98¢ |
| At least 3,150,000 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| At least 3,000,000 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
Alberta referendum: Remain vote share? — 6 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 4:52 PM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| At least 85% | bid 8¢ / ask 33¢ |
| At least 80% | bid 14¢ / ask 59¢ |
| At least 75% | bid 37¢ / ask 78¢ |
| At least 70% | bid 66¢ / ask 89¢ |
| At least 65% | bid 78¢ / ask 91¢ |
| At least 60% | bid 88¢ / ask 89¢ |
Serbian parliamentary election: Student List vote share? — 6 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 1:47 PM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| At least 50% | bid 8¢ / ask 9¢ |
| At least 46% | bid 19¢ / ask 20¢ |
| At least 42% | bid 36¢ / ask 37¢ |
| At least 38% | bid 60¢ / ask 62¢ |
| At least 34% | bid 86¢ / ask 87¢ |
| At least 30% | bid 91¢ / ask 92¢ |
Texas Railroad Commissioner & Senate combo — 4 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 1:47 PM ET
View market options (4 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Jon Rosenthal & James Talarico | bid 46¢ / ask 47¢ |
| Jon Rosenthal & Ken Paxton | bid 14¢ / ask 15¢ |
| Bo French & James Talarico | bid 10¢ / ask 11¢ |
| Bo French & Ken Paxton | bid 31¢ / ask 32¢ |
When will Greenland call a snap election? — 3 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 3:17 PM ET
View market options (3 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | bid 16¢ / ask 17¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | bid 11¢ / ask 12¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | bid 8¢ / ask 9¢ |
Midterms: Blue trickle?: Will Democrats hold 215 or more seats in the House AND hold 48 or more seats in the Senate? (bid 93¢ / ask 94¢) — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 10:26 PM ET
Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?: Will Democrats hold 240 or more seats in the House AND hold 54 or more seats in the Senate? (bid 7¢ / ask 8¢) — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 10:25 PM ET
Will Saxony-Anhalt call a snap election in 2026?: Yes (bid 22¢ / ask 24¢) — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 4:23 PM ET
🏛️ Politics — 16 events, 87 markets
How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? — 14 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 3:09 PM ET
View market strikes (14 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| At least 234 | bid 2¢ / ask 5¢ |
| At least 230 | bid 2¢ / ask 6¢ |
| At least 226 | bid 3¢ / ask 9¢ |
| At least 222 | bid 6¢ / ask 11¢ |
| At least 218 | bid 11¢ / ask 14¢ |
| At least 214 | bid 20¢ / ask 25¢ |
| At least 210 | bid 27¢ / ask 33¢ |
| At least 206 | bid 32¢ / ask 41¢ |
| At least 202 | bid 40¢ / ask 49¢ |
| At least 198 | bid 48¢ / ask 57¢ |
| At least 194 | bid 60¢ / ask 65¢ |
| At least 190 | bid 66¢ / ask 75¢ |
| At least 186 | bid 76¢ / ask 85¢ |
| At least 182 | bid 86¢ / ask 95¢ |
How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms? — 13 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 3:08 PM ET
View market strikes (13 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| At least 22 | bid 1¢ / ask 7¢ |
| At least 21 | bid 10¢ / ask 11¢ |
| At least 20 | bid 20¢ / ask 29¢ |
| At least 19 | bid 39¢ / ask 48¢ |
| At least 18 | bid 47¢ / ask 50¢ |
| At least 17 | bid 57¢ / ask 58¢ |
| At least 16 | bid 64¢ / ask 70¢ |
| At least 15 | bid 78¢ / ask 81¢ |
| At least 14 | bid 80¢ / ask 82¢ |
| At least 13 | bid 86¢ / ask 88¢ |
| At least 12 | bid 91¢ / ask 92¢ |
| At least 11 | bid 91¢ / ask 92¢ |
| At least 10 | bid 95¢ / ask 97¢ |
How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? — 13 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 3:08 PM ET
View market strikes (13 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| At least 26 | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| At least 25 | bid 5¢ / ask 6¢ |
| At least 24 | bid 7¢ / ask 9¢ |
| At least 23 | bid 9¢ / ask 10¢ |
| At least 22 | bid 11¢ / ask 12¢ |
| At least 21 | bid 20¢ / ask 21¢ |
| At least 20 | bid 26¢ / ask 32¢ |
| At least 19 | bid 35¢ / ask 41¢ |
| At least 18 | bid 42¢ / ask 49¢ |
| At least 17 | bid 51¢ / ask 58¢ |
| At least 16 | bid 59¢ / ask 66¢ |
| At least 15 | bid 83¢ / ask 84¢ |
| At least 14 | bid 93¢ / ask 94¢ |
How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms? — 11 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 3:09 PM ET
View market strikes (11 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| At least 250 | bid 13¢ / ask 20¢ |
| At least 246 | bid 24¢ / ask 27¢ |
| At least 242 | bid 29¢ / ask 35¢ |
| At least 238 | bid 37¢ / ask 43¢ |
| At least 234 | bid 43¢ / ask 51¢ |
| At least 230 | bid 55¢ / ask 57¢ |
| At least 226 | bid 64¢ / ask 65¢ |
| At least 222 | bid 85¢ / ask 86¢ |
| At least 218 | bid 89¢ / ask 90¢ |
| At least 214 | bid 91¢ / ask 92¢ |
| At least 210 | bid 92¢ / ask 93¢ |
Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 22, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Below 39.9% | bid 43¢ / ask 44¢ |
| 40.5% | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| 40.4% | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| 40.3% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| 40.2% | bid 4¢ / ask 7¢ |
| 40.1% | bid 14¢ / ask 15¢ |
| 40.0% | bid 17¢ / ask 22¢ |
| 39.9% | bid 19¢ / ask 23¢ |
| Above 40.5% | last 1¢ (book empty) |
When will Trump name an AI czar? — 6 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 4:31 PM ET
View market options (6 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Before Sep 25, 2026 | bid 13¢ / ask 19¢ |
| Before Oct 30, 2026 | bid 52¢ / ask 58¢ |
| Before Oct 23, 2026 | bid 47¢ / ask 48¢ |
| Before Oct 16, 2026 | bid 44¢ / ask 50¢ |
| Before Oct 9, 2026 | bid 33¢ / ask 40¢ |
| Before Oct 2, 2026 | bid 22¢ / ask 28¢ |
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? — 4 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 5:06 PM ET
View market options (4 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Mark Levin | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Logan Paul | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Jake Paul | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Eric Daugherty | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (9/21-9/27) — 3 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 5:04 PM ET
View market options (3 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| 2 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| 1 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| 0 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
How many House seats will Independents win in the Midterms? — 3 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 3:09 PM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| At least 3 | bid 6¢ / ask 7¢ |
| At least 2 | bid 9¢ / ask 10¢ |
| At least 1 | bid 21¢ / ask 22¢ |
How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms? — 3 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 3:09 PM ET
View market strikes (3 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| At least 3 | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| At least 2 | bid 16¢ / ask 17¢ |
| At least 1 | bid 35¢ / ask 37¢ |
When will the White House announce an end to its press ban? — 2 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 1:47 PM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | bid 8¢ / ask 23¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | bid 25¢ / ask 56¢ |
When will Trump officially rename AI? — 2 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 1:46 PM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | bid 9¢ / ask 10¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | bid 22¢ / ask 23¢ |
Will Putin visit the U.S. in 2026?: Yes (bid 8¢ / ask 9¢) — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 1:46 PM ET
Will Trump publicly call for a global AI slowdown?: Before Jan 1, 2027 (bid 8¢ / ask 12¢) — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 1:46 PM ET
Will the US ban diesel exports before Election Day? : Yes (bid 20¢ / ask 25¢) — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 1:18 PM ET
Who will Donald Trump talk to in Sep 2026?: Masoud Pezeshkian (bid 24¢ / ask 30¢) — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 11:15 AM ET
🔬 Science and Technology — 19 events, 177 markets
OpenRouter token usage in Sep 21–27 — 21 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 11:41 AM ET
View market strikes (21 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 164T tokens | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Above 162T tokens | bid 9¢ / ask 19¢ |
| Above 160T tokens | bid 9¢ / ask 20¢ |
| Above 158T tokens | bid 14¢ / ask 19¢ |
| Above 156T tokens | bid 17¢ / ask 28¢ |
| Above 154T tokens | bid 24¢ / ask 53¢ |
| Above 152T tokens | bid 25¢ / ask 50¢ |
| Above 150T tokens | bid 38¢ / ask 57¢ |
| Above 148T tokens | bid 39¢ / ask 56¢ |
| Above 146T tokens | bid 44¢ / ask 66¢ |
| Above 144T tokens | bid 39¢ / ask 66¢ |
| Above 142T tokens | bid 44¢ / ask 63¢ |
| Above 140T tokens | bid 47¢ / ask 76¢ |
| Above 138T tokens | bid 48¢ / ask 86¢ |
| Above 136T tokens | bid 61¢ / ask 83¢ |
| Above 134T tokens | bid 62¢ / ask 87¢ |
| Above 132T tokens | bid 74¢ / ask 91¢ |
| Above 130T tokens | bid 74¢ / ask 93¢ |
| Above 128T tokens | bid 94¢ / ask 96¢ |
| Above 126T tokens | bid 93¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 124T tokens | bid 97¢ (no asks) |
Top Chinese AI Company week of September 28th — 10 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
View market options (10 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Z.ai | bid 8¢ / ask 10¢ |
| Xiaomi | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Tencent | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Moonshot | bid 5¢ / ask 11¢ |
| MiniMax | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Meituan | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| DeepSeek | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| ByteDance | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Baidu | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Alibaba | bid 72¢ / ask 76¢ |
Moonshot AI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 4:54 PM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 8% | bid 95¢ / ask 96¢ |
| Above 6% | bid 95¢ / ask 96¢ |
| Above 22% | bid 37¢ / ask 56¢ |
| Above 20% | bid 52¢ / ask 60¢ |
| Above 18% | bid 68¢ / ask 75¢ |
| Above 16% | bid 81¢ / ask 82¢ |
| Above 14% | bid 91¢ / ask 92¢ |
| Above 12% | bid 94¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above 10% | bid 93¢ / ask 94¢ |
OpenAI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 4:54 PM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 28.5% | bid 16¢ / ask 19¢ |
| Above 27% | bid 30¢ / ask 36¢ |
| Above 25.5% | bid 55¢ / ask 60¢ |
| Above 24% | bid 71¢ / ask 88¢ |
| Above 22.5% | bid 87¢ / ask 96¢ |
| Above 21% | bid 93¢ / ask 96¢ |
| Above 19.5% | bid 95¢ / ask 96¢ |
| Above 18% | bid 96¢ / ask 97¢ |
| Above 16.5% | bid 98¢ (no asks) |
Anthropic share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 4:54 PM ET
Google share of requests on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 4:54 PM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 9% | bid 95¢ / ask 97¢ |
| Above 7.5% | bid 96¢ / ask 97¢ |
| Above 6% | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 18% | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Above 16.5% | bid 4¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above 15% | bid 5¢ / ask 7¢ |
| Above 13.5% | bid 8¢ / ask 21¢ |
| Above 12% | bid 22¢ / ask 72¢ |
| Above 10.5% | bid 79¢ / ask 92¢ |
OpenAI share of requests on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 4:54 PM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 8% | bid 96¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 24% | bid 6¢ / ask 8¢ |
| Above 22% | bid 5¢ / ask 18¢ |
| Above 20% | bid 13¢ / ask 43¢ |
| Above 18% | bid 31¢ / ask 85¢ |
| Above 16% | bid 78¢ / ask 88¢ |
| Above 14% | bid 93¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above 12% | bid 96¢ / ask 97¢ |
| Above 10% | bid 96¢ / ask 97¢ |
Anthropic share of requests on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 4:54 PM ET
DeepSeek share of requests on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 4:53 PM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 30% | bid 3¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above 28% | bid 4¢ / ask 15¢ |
| Above 26% | bid 13¢ / ask 32¢ |
| Above 24% | bid 23¢ / ask 60¢ |
| Above 22% | bid 60¢ / ask 84¢ |
| Above 20% | bid 89¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above 18% | bid 93¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above 16% | bid 96¢ / ask 97¢ |
| Above 14% | bid 94¢ / ask 96¢ |
Google market share this week — 9 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 11:39 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 20.0% | bid 7¢ / ask 21¢ |
| Above 19.3% | bid 27¢ / ask 45¢ |
| Above 18.8% | bid 57¢ / ask 75¢ |
| Above 18.6% | bid 51¢ / ask 67¢ |
| Above 18.5% | bid 67¢ / ask 88¢ |
| Above 18.3% | bid 80¢ / ask 87¢ |
| Above 18.1% | bid 45¢ / ask 84¢ |
| Above 17.5% | bid 92¢ / ask 96¢ |
| Above 16.7% | bid 97¢ / ask 99¢ |
Qwen market share this week — 9 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 11:39 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 7.8% | bid 2¢ / ask 16¢ |
| Above 7.3% | bid 4¢ / ask 25¢ |
| Above 6.9% | bid 17¢ / ask 90¢ |
| Above 6.8% | bid 19¢ / ask 92¢ |
| Above 6.7% | bid 13¢ / ask 90¢ |
| Above 6.6% | bid 23¢ / ask 86¢ |
| Above 6.5% | bid 27¢ / ask 46¢ |
| Above 6.2% | bid 43¢ / ask 60¢ |
| Above 5.8% | bid 55¢ / ask 77¢ |
Tencent market share this week — 9 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 11:39 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 8.8% | bid 2¢ / ask 23¢ |
| Above 7.5% | bid 5¢ / ask 24¢ |
| Above 6.6% | bid 13¢ / ask 30¢ |
| Above 6.4% | bid 13¢ / ask 38¢ |
| Above 6.2% | bid 19¢ / ask 37¢ |
| Above 5.9% | bid 23¢ / ask 34¢ |
| Above 5.7% | bid 27¢ / ask 31¢ |
| Above 4.9% | bid 50¢ / ask 68¢ |
| Above 3.5% | bid 81¢ / ask 84¢ |
DeepSeek market share this week — 9 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 11:39 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 28.1% | bid 6¢ / ask 9¢ |
| Above 26.8% | bid 13¢ / ask 25¢ |
| Above 25.9% | bid 22¢ / ask 45¢ |
| Above 25.7% | bid 33¢ / ask 53¢ |
| Above 25.4% | bid 41¢ / ask 64¢ |
| Above 25.2% | bid 23¢ / ask 63¢ |
| Above 24.9% | bid 41¢ / ask 76¢ |
| Above 24.1% | bid 55¢ / ask 74¢ |
| Above 23.0% | bid 50¢ / ask 98¢ |
OpenAI market share this week — 9 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 11:39 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 21.7% | bid 2¢ / ask 27¢ |
| Above 19.3% | bid 14¢ / ask 27¢ |
| Above 17.8% | bid 33¢ / ask 55¢ |
| Above 17.3% | bid 46¢ / ask 56¢ |
| Above 16.9% | bid 38¢ / ask 56¢ |
| Above 16.4% | bid 26¢ / ask 60¢ |
| Above 15.8% | bid 53¢ / ask 77¢ |
| Above 14.0% | bid 94¢ / ask 97¢ |
| Above 11.1% | last 99¢ (book empty) |
Top Coding AI this week — 9 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
Tracking: Qwen, MiniMax, Kimi, Grok, GLM, Gemini, Dola, Claude, ChatGPT
Best AI this week — 9 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
Tracking: Grok, ChatGPT, Kimi, MUSE, Gemini, Dola, Claude, Amazon Nova, Qwen
Anthropic market share this week — 7 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 11:39 AM ET
View market strikes (7 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 3.1% | bid 3¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Above 2.9% | bid 4¢ / ask 25¢ |
| Above 2.8% | bid 8¢ / ask 26¢ |
| Above 2.7% | bid 13¢ / ask 27¢ |
| Above 2.6% | bid 32¢ / ask 46¢ |
| Above 2.5% | bid 40¢ / ask 43¢ |
| Above 2.3% | bid 60¢ / ask 71¢ |
Most popular AI this week — 7 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
Tracking: Z.ai, Xiaomi, Tencent, OpenAI, Google, DeepSeek, Anthropic
Xiaomi market share this week — 6 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 6:31 PM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 3.7% | bid 5¢ / ask 23¢ |
| Above 3.0% | bid 7¢ / ask 86¢ |
| Above 2.5% | bid 10¢ / ask 89¢ |
| Above 2.1% | bid 20¢ / ask 85¢ |
| Above 1.9% | bid 43¢ / ask 65¢ |
| Above 1.8% | bid 61¢ / ask 83¢ |
🔄 Recurring Markets
4,808 recurring markets also launched — these are auto-generated daily/weekly/hourly brackets (weather, crypto prices, index levels, etc.).
| Category | Markets | Series | Top Series |
|---|---|---|---|
| 💹 Financials | 3,932 | 24 | Nasdaq above/below, S&P 500 above/below, DJI Hourly, +21 more |
| 📊 Economics | 434 | 26 | New Jersey gas price this week, US gas price up, Minnesota gas price, +23 more |
| 🌤️ Climate and Weather | 366 | 54 | Where will it rain daily, Hourly Directional Coastal LA Temperature, Hourly Directional Chicago Metro Temperature, +51 more |
| 🎬 Entertainment | 51 | 6 | DAILY TOP YOUTUBE VIDEO, Will Album be runner up this week?, Billboard Top 200 #1, +3 more |
| 🔬 Science and Technology | 17 | 2 | Z.ai market share, Mistral market share |
| 🏛️ Politics | 8 | 2 | Trump tariffs on Canada: increase, Trump tariffs on Canada: reduction |
All data sourced from the Kalshi public API. Prices shown are indicative Yes contract bid/ask at time of publication and may have moved. Trade responsibly.