In Short
Buffalo destroyed Montreal 8-3 in Game 6, forcing a decisive Game 7 with the second-round series tied 3-3.
The Kalshi series contract for Buffalo to win now trades around 53 cents, making the Sabres slight favorites.
Game 7 in Montreal will settle the series and could reshape the Eastern Conference Finals market.
What Happened
The Buffalo Sabres demolished the Montreal Canadiens 8-3 in Game 6 on May 16, blowing past a 6.5-goal over/under in a game Montreal was expected to win as a minus-176 money-line favorite. Three unexpected Sabres contributors stepped up to force a winner-take-all Game 7 back in Montreal. Buffalo entered as a plus-146 underdog and left having completely reversed the series narrative, tying things at three games apiece after facing elimination.
What the Market Shows
The primary open contract, KXNHLEAST-26-BUF, covers Buffalo to win the Eastern Conference Finals and trades around 16 cents, implying roughly a 16 percent chance the Sabres reach and win the conference title. That figure climbed after the Game 6 demolition but still reflects the long road ahead even if Buffalo survives Game 7. For more immediate context, the series contract KXNHLSERIES-26MTLBUFR2-BUF has Buffalo at around 53 cents, a coin-flip leaning slightly toward the Sabres despite Game 7 being played on Montreal ice.
What To Watch
Game 7 in Montreal is the single biggest catalyst. A Sabres win would likely push KXNHLEAST-26-BUF well above 16 cents as Buffalo advances to the conference finals. A Canadiens win zeros out the series contract and would crater that Eastern Conference number. Watch whether Buffalo's unlikely Game 6 contributors can replicate their performance on hostile ice, or whether the Montreal crowd swings momentum back in the Canadiens' favor.
This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.