In Short

  • UFC announced McGregor vs. Holloway 2 at UFC 329 on July 11, 2026, in Las Vegas, with McGregor returning after five years away.

  • Kalshi's open fight-winner market prices McGregor at around 23 cents, implying roughly a one-in-four chance he beats Holloway.

  • Watch for training camp updates, weigh-in news, and any injury reports as fight night approaches next July.

View this market on Kalshi →

What Happened

Dana White announced the fight on May 17 during Most Valuable Promotions' first MMA event on Netflix, strategically upstaging Jake Paul's promotion company. Conor McGregor, absent from the octagon for five years, will rematch Max Holloway at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on July 11, 2026, at UFC 329. The two originally met in a featherweight contest in 2013, early in both careers. McGregor enters at 22-6, Holloway at 27-9, and traditional sportsbooks have already installed McGregor as the underdog.

The Market

The primary contract to watch is KXUFCFIGHT-26JUL11MCGHOL-MCG, McGregor to win at UFC 329. With the bid at 22 cents and the ask at 24 cents, Kalshi bettors are pricing him at roughly a 23 percent chance of victory. Open interest has climbed past 27,600 contracts, with over 26,200 trading in the last 24 hours, signaling strong engagement from the prediction-market crowd. On the other side, KXUFCFIGHT-26JUL11MCGHOL-HOL trades around 75 cents, implying a three-in-four probability that Holloway wins. A separate market on whether McGregor's next fight will be Holloway, KXMCGREGORFIGHTNEXT-28-MHOL, sits near 90 cents, indicating traders are highly confident the bout takes place as announced.

What To Watch

With the fight nearly 14 months away, prices have plenty of room to move. Training camp footage, sparring reports, and any hint of injury or withdrawal could push the McGregor contract sharply in either direction. A weight-class change or opponent swap would quickly deflate the next-fight market from its 90-cent perch. The official UFC weigh-in on July 10, 2026, will be the last major catalyst before contracts settle.

This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.