📖 New here? How to read this post
Every day, new prediction markets launch on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade on real-world outcomes. Think of this post as a quick vibe check on what’s new in culture, politics, and the world — when you see markets pop up for the Oscars, a surprise album drop, Saturday Night Live hosts, or the next Fed decision, it tells you something about what people are paying attention to right now.
How to read this: On Kalshi, an event is the big question being asked — for example, “Who will win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?” Each event contains one or more markets, which are the specific yes-or-no outcomes you can actually trade — like “Will 1949 / Fatherland win Best Picture?” at a given price. When an event has numeric thresholds (“Will the S&P 500 close above 5,500?”), those individual levels are called brackets.
For each new event below, we include a link to find it on Kalshi so you can see live pricing. The first thing to do with any new market is understand the rules — then decide if you have an edge.
Here's every new market that launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours (Sep 13 at 6:31 PM ET through Sep 14 at 6:31 PM ET). Our scan picked up 457 unique markets across 50 new events, plus 4,630 recurring bracket markets.
⚡ What's Actionable Right Now
The launches from the past 24h with the tightest spreads and live two-sided quotes — i.e. the ones you can actually trade right now.
Social Security COLA for 2028: Above 4.5% bid 4¢ / ask 5¢, Above 4.0% bid 11¢ / ask 12¢, Above 3.5% bid 26¢ / ask 27¢
Oscar winner: Best Actress: Kate O'Flynn — bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Toronto International Film Festival: People's Choice Award: Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother bid 2¢ / ask 3¢, Wild Horse Nine bid 4¢ / ask 5¢, Tie bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Google market share this week: Above 16.4% bid 98¢ / ask 99¢, Above 20.4% bid 10¢ / ask 18¢, Above 17.3% bid 85¢ / ask 96¢
Anthropic market share this week: Above 3.25% bid 2¢ / ask 3¢, Above 2.05% bid 88¢ / ask 98¢, Above 2.25% bid 76¢ / ask 92¢
DeepSeek market share this week: Above 27.6% bid 3¢ / ask 4¢, Above 22.7% bid 96¢ / ask 98¢, Above 24.3% bid 41¢ / ask 81¢
OpenAI market share this week: Above 25% bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Above 24.1% bid 2¢ / ask 4¢, Above 20.8% bid 20¢ / ask 60¢
All Events — every new event from the past 24h, at a glance
- Diesel prices this week
- Diesel prices tomorrow
- EV commodity prices on Sep 14, 2026
- I bond fixed rate in November 2026
- Social Security COLA for 2028
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 15, 2026?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 15, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 15, 2026?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 15, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 15, 2026?
- Fear & Greed Index on Oct 9, 2026?
- Eurovision Song Contest Asia Winner
- Oscar winner: Best Actress
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Runner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
- Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
- Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
- Toronto International Film Festival: People's Choice Award
- Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 15, 2026?
- When will Kimberly Greenwood be confirmed as U.S. Ambassador to Barbados?
- When will Scotland call a snap election?
- When will Wales call a snap election?
- When will Wesley Hunt be confirmed as U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia?
- Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
- Will Canada and the EU agree to expanded mobility rights?
- Will Census finalize a rule excluding undocumented immigrants?
- Will Mamdani endorse outside of New York?
- AfD margin of victory in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
- Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election: 2nd place?
- Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election: 3rd place?
- Clarence mayoral election winner?
- Falealili 1 by-election winner?
- Holborn and St Pancras Green Party margin of victory?
- Holborn and St Pancras Labour margin of victory?
- Huon Valley mayoral election winner?
- Launceston mayoral election winner?
- Milton, Ontario mayoral election winner?
- Who will be Latvia’s Prime Minister after the election?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Google market share this week
- Most popular AI this week
- OpenAI market share this week
- OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 14–20
- Qwen market share this week
- Tencent market share this week
- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 21st
- Top Coding AI this week
All New Events
🏥 Health — 1 event, 1 market
Will any COVID vaccine lose its FDA approval in the US in 2026?: By Dec 31, 2026 (bid 5¢ / ask 14¢) — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 4:04 PM ET
📊 Economics — 5 events, 70 markets
Diesel prices this week — 21 brackets — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET
View market strikes (21 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above $6.44 | bid 30¢ / ask 35¢ |
| Above $6.42 | bid 35¢ / ask 37¢ |
| Above $6.40 | bid 41¢ / ask 45¢ |
| Above $6.38 | bid 48¢ / ask 57¢ |
| Above $6.36 | bid 59¢ / ask 66¢ |
| Above $6.34 | bid 64¢ / ask 73¢ |
| Above $6.32 | bid 70¢ / ask 73¢ |
| Above $6.30 | bid 78¢ / ask 83¢ |
| Above $6.28 | bid 81¢ / ask 87¢ |
| Above $6.26 | bid 86¢ / ask 91¢ |
| Above $6.24 | bid 89¢ / ask 93¢ |
| Above $6.22 | bid 92¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above $6.20 | bid 93¢ / ask 94¢ |
| Above $6.18 | bid 95¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above $6.16 | bid 95¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above $6.14 | bid 96¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above $6.12 | bid 96¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above $6.10 | bid 97¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above $6.08 | bid 97¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above $6.06 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above $6.04 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
Diesel prices tomorrow — 21 brackets — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET
View market strikes (21 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above $6.280 | bid 24¢ / ask 32¢ |
| Above $6.275 | bid 38¢ / ask 47¢ |
| Above $6.270 | bid 55¢ / ask 62¢ |
| Above $6.265 | bid 70¢ / ask 78¢ |
| Above $6.260 | bid 84¢ / ask 87¢ |
| Above $6.255 | bid 94¢ / ask 96¢ |
| Above $6.250 | bid 97¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above $6.245 | bid 97¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above $6.240 | bid 97¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above $6.235 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above $6.230 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above $6.225 | bid 98¢ (no asks) |
| Above $6.220 | bid 98¢ (no asks) |
| Above $6.215 | bid 98¢ (no asks) |
| Above $6.210 | bid 98¢ (no asks) |
| Above $6.205 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Above $6.200 | bid 98¢ (no asks) |
| Above $6.195 | bid 98¢ (no asks) |
| Above $6.190 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Above $6.185 | bid 98¢ (no asks) |
| Above $6.180 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
EV commodity prices on Sep 14, 2026 — 15 brackets — listed Sep 13, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 1282.00 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1272.00 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1262.00 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1252.00 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1242.00 | — |
| Above 1232.00 | ask 8¢ (no bids) |
| Above 1222.00 | last 2¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1212.00 | ask 74¢ (no bids) |
| Above 1202.00 | bid 2¢ / ask 13¢ |
| Above 1192.00 | bid 18¢ / ask 54¢ |
| Above 1182.00 | bid 95¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 1172.00 | bid 63¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above 1162.00 | bid 93¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 1152.00 | bid 87¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1142.00 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
Social Security COLA for 2028 — 7 brackets — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 2:17 PM ET
View market strikes (7 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 4.5% | bid 4¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Above 4.0% | bid 11¢ / ask 12¢ |
| Above 3.5% | bid 26¢ / ask 27¢ |
| Above 3.0% | bid 46¢ / ask 47¢ |
| Above 2.5% | bid 66¢ / ask 67¢ |
| Above 2.0% | bid 86¢ / ask 87¢ |
| Above 1.5% | bid 94¢ / ask 95¢ |
I bond fixed rate in November 2026 — 6 brackets — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 2:17 PM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 1.8% | bid 1¢ / ask 35¢ |
| Above 1.6% | bid 2¢ / ask 35¢ |
| Above 1.4% | bid 5¢ / ask 30¢ |
| Above 1.2% | bid 51¢ / ask 90¢ |
| Above 1.0% | bid 64¢ / ask 91¢ |
| Above 0.8% | bid 82¢ / ask 98¢ |
💹 Financials — 6 events, 80 markets
30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 15, 2026? — 15 brackets — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 5.49% or above | ask 10¢ (no bids) |
| 5.47% or above | ask 10¢ (no bids) |
| 5.45% or above | ask 10¢ (no bids) |
| 5.43% or above | ask 10¢ (no bids) |
| 5.41% or above | ask 10¢ (no bids) |
| 5.39% or above | bid 3¢ / ask 23¢ |
| 5.37% or above | bid 29¢ / ask 49¢ |
| 5.35% or above | bid 44¢ / ask 64¢ |
| 5.33% or above | bid 74¢ / ask 94¢ |
| 5.31% or above | bid 90¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 5.29% or above | bid 90¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 5.27% or above | bid 90¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 5.25% or above | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
| 5.23% or above | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
| 5.21% or above | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 15, 2026? — 15 brackets — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 5.09% or above | ask 13¢ (no bids) |
| 5.07% or above | ask 13¢ (no bids) |
| 5.05% or above | ask 18¢ (no bids) |
| 5.03% or above | ask 20¢ (no bids) |
| 5.01% or above | bid 18¢ / ask 38¢ |
| 4.99% or above | bid 49¢ / ask 69¢ |
| 4.97% or above | bid 76¢ / ask 96¢ |
| 4.95% or above | bid 86¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.93% or above | bid 90¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.91% or above | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
| 4.89% or above | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
| 4.87% or above | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
| 4.85% or above | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
| 4.83% or above | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
| 4.81% or above | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 15, 2026? — 15 brackets — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 4.99% or above | ask 11¢ (no bids) |
| 4.97% or above | ask 14¢ (no bids) |
| 4.95% or above | bid 3¢ / ask 23¢ |
| 4.93% or above | bid 31¢ / ask 51¢ |
| 4.91% or above | bid 59¢ / ask 79¢ |
| 4.89% or above | bid 78¢ / ask 98¢ |
| 4.87% or above | bid 90¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.85% or above | bid 90¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.83% or above | bid 90¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.81% or above | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
| 4.79% or above | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
| 4.77% or above | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
| 4.75% or above | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
| 4.73% or above | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
| 4.71% or above | bid 90¢ / ask 99¢ |
5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 15, 2026? — 15 brackets — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 4.94% or above | ask 10¢ (no bids) |
| 4.92% or above | ask 10¢ (no bids) |
| 4.9% or above | ask 11¢ (no bids) |
| 4.88% or above | bid 1¢ / ask 21¢ |
| 4.86% or above | bid 16¢ / ask 36¢ |
| 4.84% or above | bid 31¢ / ask 51¢ |
| 4.82% or above | bid 68¢ / ask 88¢ |
| 4.8% or above | bid 88¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.78% or above | bid 90¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.76% or above | bid 90¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.74% or above | bid 91¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.72% or above | bid 91¢ (no asks) |
| 4.7% or above | bid 91¢ (no asks) |
| 4.68% or above | bid 91¢ (no asks) |
| 4.66% or above | bid 91¢ (no asks) |
2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 15, 2026? — 15 brackets — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 4.79% or above | ask 10¢ (no bids) |
| 4.77% or above | ask 10¢ (no bids) |
| 4.75% or above | ask 10¢ (no bids) |
| 4.73% or above | ask 14¢ (no bids) |
| 4.71% or above | ask 53¢ (no bids) |
| 4.69% or above | bid 51¢ / ask 97¢ |
| 4.67% or above | bid 50¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.65% or above | bid 90¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.63% or above | bid 90¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.61% or above | bid 90¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.59% or above | bid 90¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.57% or above | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
| 4.55% or above | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
| 4.53% or above | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
| 4.51% or above | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
Fear & Greed Index on Oct 9, 2026? — 5 outcomes — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
View market options (5 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Extreme Greed | bid 4¢ / ask 9¢ |
| Extreme Fear | bid 8¢ / ask 24¢ |
| Neutral | bid 15¢ / ask 27¢ |
| Greed | bid 16¢ / ask 33¢ |
| Fear | bid 35¢ / ask 38¢ |
🎬 Entertainment — 7 events, 73 markets
Toronto International Film Festival: People's Choice Award — 15 outcomes — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 12:38 PM ET
View market options (15 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Wild Horse Nine | bid 4¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Tie | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Tender Loving Care | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Possible Love | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| La bola negra | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Josephine | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| I Play Rocky | bid 12¢ / ask 83¢ |
| Ink | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Fjord | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Elsinore | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| The Debut | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Club Kid | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Bucking Fastard | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| All of a Sudden | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
Runner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026 — 15 outcomes — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET
View market options (15 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Yeshanagula (From "The Paradise") (Telugu) | bid 27¢ / ask 64¢ |
| Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip | bid 7¢ / ask 16¢ |
| Training Season (Live) | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Todo Lo Fue | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Shararat | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| SaWaDiKa (Official Music Video) | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Parvati | last 5¢ (book empty) |
| LISA - SaWaDiKa (Dance Performance Video) | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| KATSEYE (캣츠아이) 'Hootie Frutti' Official MV | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| KALYANI (Remix) | bid 10¢ / ask 12¢ |
| Golden | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Dai Dai | bid 5¢ / ask 75¢ |
| Chhathi Maiya - The VVAAN | Sidharth Malhotra & Tamannaah | Vishal Mishra | Kaushal K | Chinni P | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| BbY WOW | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Basinga Balaalu | last 1¢ (book empty) |
Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026 — 15 outcomes — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET
View market options (15 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Yeshanagula (From "The Paradise") (Telugu) | last 2¢ (book empty) |
| Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Training Season (Live) | — |
| Todo Lo Fue | — |
| Shararat | — |
| SaWaDiKa (Official Music Video) | — |
| Parvati | — |
| LISA - SaWaDiKa (Dance Performance Video) | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| KATSEYE (캣츠아이) 'Hootie Frutti' Official MV | — |
| KALYANI (Remix) | — |
| Golden | — |
| Dai Dai | bid 15¢ / ask 92¢ |
| Chhathi Maiya - The VVAAN | Sidharth Malhotra & Tamannaah | Vishal Mishra | Kaushal K | Chinni P | — |
| BbY WOW | — |
| Basinga Balaalu | — |
Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026 — 15 outcomes — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET
View market options (15 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| WTF GOIN | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Todo Lo Fue | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Sunflower | bid 14¢ / ask 35¢ |
| Lord Verity - Master of Humanity (song) | bid 5¢ / ask 18¢ |
| Life Goes On | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| KATSEYE (캣츠아이) "Animal" Official MV | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| KATSEYE (캣츠아이) 'Hootie Frutti' Official MV | bid 6¢ / ask 33¢ |
| Hootie Frutti | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Golden | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Dead Fresh | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Dai Dai | bid 7¢ / ask 62¢ |
| Choosin' Texas | bid 19¢ / ask 69¢ |
| BbY WOW | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Backdoor | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| AH HA | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
Eurovision Song Contest Asia Winner — 11 outcomes — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 2:22 PM ET
View market options (11 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Vietnam | bid 2¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Thailand | bid 3¢ / ask 79¢ |
| Philippines | bid 3¢ / ask 79¢ |
| Nepal | bid 3¢ / ask 79¢ |
| Malaysia | bid 3¢ / ask 79¢ |
| Mongolia | bid 2¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Laos | bid 2¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Republic of Korea | bid 3¢ / ask 79¢ |
| Cambodia | bid 2¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Bhutan | bid 3¢ / ask 79¢ |
| Bangladesh | bid 2¢ / ask 80¢ |
Oscar winner: Best Actress: Kate O'Flynn (bid 1¢ / ask 2¢) — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 12:43 PM ET
Oscar Winner: Best Picture: Tender Loving Care (last 1¢ (book empty)) — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 12:42 PM ET
🏛️ Politics — 9 events, 24 markets
Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 15, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Below 39.2% | bid 3¢ / ask 6¢ |
| 39.8% | bid 4¢ / ask 6¢ |
| 39.7% | bid 7¢ / ask 8¢ |
| 39.6% | bid 16¢ / ask 18¢ |
| 39.5% | bid 29¢ / ask 34¢ |
| 39.4% | bid 17¢ / ask 21¢ |
| 39.3% | bid 7¢ / ask 8¢ |
| 39.2% | bid 5¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above 39.8% | bid 9¢ / ask 15¢ |
When will Kimberly Greenwood be confirmed as U.S. Ambassador to Barbados? — 3 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 14, 2026 at 6:31 PM ET
Tracking: Before Mar 1, 2027, Before Jun 1, 2027, Before Dec 1, 2026
When will Wesley Hunt be confirmed as U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia? — 3 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 14, 2026 at 6:31 PM ET
Tracking: Before Mar 1, 2027, Before Jun 1, 2027, Before Dec 1, 2026
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? — 2 outcomes — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 5:36 PM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Vanessa Broussard | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Cara Castronuova | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
When will Scotland call a snap election? — 2 outcomes — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 4:09 PM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | bid 41¢ / ask 50¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | bid 26¢ / ask 35¢ |
When will Wales call a snap election? — 2 outcomes — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 4:09 PM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | bid 41¢ / ask 50¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | bid 32¢ / ask 41¢ |
Will Census finalize a rule excluding undocumented immigrants?: Yes — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 4:37 PM ET
Will Canada and the EU agree to expanded mobility rights?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 4:08 PM ET
Will Mamdani endorse outside of New York?: Before Nov 3, 2026 (bid 29¢ / ask 32¢) — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 12:49 PM ET
🔬 Science and Technology — 11 events, 102 markets
OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 14–20 — 13 brackets — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 10:14 AM ET
View market strikes (13 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 150T tokens | bid 4¢ / ask 14¢ |
| Above 148T tokens | bid 3¢ / ask 10¢ |
| Above 146T tokens | bid 9¢ / ask 42¢ |
| Above 144T tokens | bid 14¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Above 142T tokens | bid 13¢ / ask 50¢ |
| Above 140T tokens | bid 19¢ / ask 75¢ |
| Above 138T tokens | bid 14¢ / ask 75¢ |
| Above 136T tokens | bid 14¢ / ask 79¢ |
| Above 134T tokens | bid 23¢ / ask 84¢ |
| Above 132T tokens | bid 31¢ / ask 87¢ |
| Above 130T tokens | bid 23¢ / ask 89¢ |
| Above 128T tokens | bid 16¢ / ask 94¢ |
| Above 126T tokens | bid 28¢ / ask 96¢ |
Top Chinese AI Company week of September 21st — 10 outcomes — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
View market options (10 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Z.ai | bid 8¢ / ask 10¢ |
| Xiaomi | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Tencent | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Moonshot | bid 3¢ / ask 7¢ |
| MiniMax | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Meituan | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| DeepSeek | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| ByteDance | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Baidu | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Alibaba | bid 75¢ / ask 84¢ |
Google market share this week — 9 brackets — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 10:54 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 20.4% | bid 10¢ / ask 18¢ |
| Above 19.7% | bid 29¢ / ask 70¢ |
| Above 19.1% | bid 47¢ / ask 86¢ |
| Above 18.8% | bid 25¢ / ask 76¢ |
| Above 18.6% | bid 51¢ / ask 91¢ |
| Above 18.3% | bid 28¢ / ask 78¢ |
| Above 18% | bid 28¢ / ask 78¢ |
| Above 17.3% | bid 85¢ / ask 96¢ |
| Above 16.4% | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
Anthropic market share this week — 9 brackets — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 10:53 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 3.25% | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Above 3.05% | bid 4¢ / ask 50¢ |
| Above 2.85% | bid 9¢ / ask 26¢ |
| Above 2.75% | bid 27¢ / ask 65¢ |
| Above 2.65% | bid 30¢ / ask 68¢ |
| Above 2.55% | bid 26¢ / ask 67¢ |
| Above 2.45% | bid 33¢ / ask 73¢ |
| Above 2.25% | bid 76¢ / ask 92¢ |
| Above 2.05% | bid 88¢ / ask 98¢ |
Qwen market share this week — 9 brackets — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 10:52 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 6.75% | bid 27¢ / ask 68¢ |
| Above 6.25% | bid 29¢ / ask 69¢ |
| Above 5.95% | bid 28¢ / ask 69¢ |
| Above 5.75% | bid 20¢ / ask 71¢ |
| Above 5.65% | bid 33¢ / ask 76¢ |
| Above 5.55% | bid 25¢ / ask 75¢ |
| Above 5.45% | bid 26¢ / ask 76¢ |
| Above 5.15% | bid 90¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above 4.95% | bid 93¢ / ask 96¢ |
Tencent market share this week — 9 brackets — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 10:52 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 9.6% | ask 81¢ (no bids) |
| Above 8.3% | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 7.4% | bid 14¢ / ask 65¢ |
| Above 6.8% | bid 16¢ / ask 66¢ |
| Above 6.4% | bid 17¢ / ask 65¢ |
| Above 6.1% | bid 18¢ / ask 68¢ |
| Above 5.6% | bid 18¢ / ask 69¢ |
| Above 4.5% | bid 22¢ / ask 70¢ |
| Above 2.7% | bid 89¢ / ask 98¢ |
DeepSeek market share this week — 9 brackets — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 10:52 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 27.6% | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Above 26.3% | bid 11¢ / ask 55¢ |
| Above 25.3% | bid 31¢ / ask 73¢ |
| Above 24.7% | bid 36¢ / ask 82¢ |
| Above 24.3% | bid 41¢ / ask 81¢ |
| Above 24% | bid 13¢ (no asks) |
| Above 23.6% | bid 27¢ / ask 78¢ |
| Above 22.7% | bid 96¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above 21.7% | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
OpenAI market share this week — 9 brackets — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 10:52 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 26.1% | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 25% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Above 24.1% | bid 2¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Above 23.6% | bid 21¢ / ask 70¢ |
| Above 23.3% | bid 21¢ / ask 72¢ |
| Above 23% | bid 7¢ / ask 85¢ |
| Above 22.6% | bid 12¢ / ask 61¢ |
| Above 21.8% | bid 24¢ / ask 74¢ |
| Above 20.8% | bid 20¢ / ask 60¢ |
Top Coding AI this week — 9 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 14, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
Tracking: Qwen, MiniMax, Kimi, Grok, GLM, Gemini, Dola, Claude, ChatGPT
Best AI this week — 9 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 14, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
Tracking: Grok, ChatGPT, Kimi, MUSE, Gemini, Dola, Claude, Amazon Nova, Qwen
Most popular AI this week — 7 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 14, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
Tracking: Z.ai, Xiaomi, Tencent, OpenAI, Google, DeepSeek, Anthropic
🗳️ Elections — 11 events, 107 markets
Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election: 2nd place? — 25 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 14, 2026 at 4:15 PM ET
Tracking: ZPR, Volja Naroda, Ujedinjena Srpska, SPS, SNSD, SDS, SDP, SDA, SBiH, SBB, Republikanci, PSS, NS, NiP, Narodni front, NES/PDA/Naprijed, Laburisti, HDZ coalition, Hrvatska petorka, DNS-NPS, DF/GS, SP-DEMOS, Crvene linije, BH Zeleni, BHI
Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election: 3rd place? — 25 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 14, 2026 at 4:15 PM ET
Tracking: ZPR, Volja Naroda, Ujedinjena Srpska, SPS, SNSD, SDS, SDP, SDA, SBiH, SBB, Republikanci, PSS, NS, NiP, Narodni front, NES/PDA/Naprijed, Laburisti, HDZ coalition, Hrvatska petorka, DNS-NPS, DF/GS, SP-DEMOS, Crvene linije, BH Zeleni, BHI
Who will be Latvia’s Prime Minister after the election? — 12 outcomes — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 4:09 PM ET
View market options (12 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Viktors Valainis | bid 2¢ / ask 10¢ |
| Svetlana Čulkova | bid 2¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Raivis Zeltīts | bid 2¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Jūlija Stepaņenko | bid 1¢ / ask 10¢ |
| Jānis Citskovskis | bid 2¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Ilze Indriksone | bid 2¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Ivars Ijabs | bid 2¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Andris Šuvajevs | bid 2¢ / ask 7¢ |
| Ainārs Šlesers | bid 2¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Andris Kulbergs | bid 75¢ / ask 84¢ |
| Alvis Hermanis | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Arvils Ašeradens | bid 1¢ / ask 9¢ |
Milton, Ontario mayoral election winner? — 10 outcomes — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 4:09 PM ET
View market options (10 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Zainab Azim | bid 2¢ / ask 7¢ |
| Sameera Ali | bid 11¢ / ask 20¢ |
| Nadeem Akbar | bid 2¢ / ask 10¢ |
| Maliha K. Ahmed | bid 2¢ / ask 8¢ |
| George Minakakis | bid 16¢ / ask 25¢ |
| Gord Krantz | bid 47¢ / ask 56¢ |
| Chéz Amun | bid 2¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Asif Khan | bid 2¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Arjun Joshi | bid 2¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Abdulkareem Akbik | bid 2¢ / ask 6¢ |
Holborn and St Pancras Labour margin of victory? — 8 outcomes — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 4:11 PM ET
View market options (8 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Labour, ≥5% | — |
| Labour, ≥40% | ask 92¢ (no bids) |
| Labour, ≥35% | — |
| Labour, ≥30% | — |
| Labour, ≥25% | — |
| Labour, ≥20% | — |
| Labour, ≥15% | — |
| Labour, ≥10% | — |
Falealili 1 by-election winner? — 7 outcomes — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 4:10 PM ET
View market options (7 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Tuiloma Laneselota Lameko | bid 5¢ (no asks) |
| Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu | bid 1¢ / ask 50¢ |
| Aperila Vaa Tiai | bid 2¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Patea | bid 2¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Fuaolemoli Falaila Faausu Allen | bid 1¢ / ask 50¢ |
| Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale | bid 25¢ / ask 97¢ |
| Alec Latu | bid 1¢ / ask 50¢ |
Holborn and St Pancras Green Party margin of victory? — 6 outcomes — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 4:10 PM ET
View market options (6 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Green Party, ≥9% | — |
| Green Party, ≥6% | — |
| Green Party, ≥3% | bid 5¢ (no asks) |
| Green Party, ≥18% | — |
| Green Party, ≥15% | — |
| Green Party, ≥12% | — |
AfD margin of victory in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern? — 5 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 14, 2026 at 4:10 PM ET
Tracking: AfD, ≥9%, AfD, ≥6%, AfD, ≥3%, AfD, ≥15%, AfD, ≥12%
Launceston mayoral election winner? — 4 outcomes — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 4:10 PM ET
View market options (4 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Rose Diamond | ask 90¢ (no bids) |
| Paul Mallett | ask 90¢ (no bids) |
| Matthew Garwood | ask 90¢ (no bids) |
| Kyle Barrett | ask 90¢ (no bids) |
Huon Valley mayoral election winner? — 3 outcomes — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 4:09 PM ET
View market options (3 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Paul Gibson | bid 21¢ / ask 30¢ |
| Mark Jessop | bid 21¢ / ask 30¢ |
| Abby McKibben | bid 21¢ / ask 30¢ |
Clarence mayoral election winner? — 2 outcomes — listed Sep 14, 2026 at 4:10 PM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Drew Jenner | bid 1¢ / ask 50¢ |
| Brendan Blomeley | bid 25¢ / ask 75¢ |
🔄 Recurring Markets
4,630 recurring markets also launched — these are auto-generated daily/weekly/hourly brackets (weather, crypto prices, index levels, etc.).
| Category | Markets | Series | Top Series |
|---|---|---|---|
| 💹 Financials | 3,695 | 22 | Nasdaq above/below, S&P 500 above/below, DJI Hourly, +19 more |
| 📊 Economics | 448 | 28 | Michigan gas price, North Carolina gas price, New Jersey gas price this week, +25 more |
| 🌤️ Climate and Weather | 433 | 65 | Where will it rain this weekend?, Where will it rain daily, Hourly Directional Coastal LA Temperature, +62 more |
| 🎬 Entertainment | 45 | 6 | DAILY TOP YOUTUBE VIDEO, Billboard Top 200 #1, Will Song be number 2 on Billboard 100?, +3 more |
| 🔬 Science and Technology | 9 | 1 | Z.ai market share |
All data sourced from the Kalshi public API. Prices shown are indicative Yes contract bid/ask at time of publication and may have moved. Trade responsibly.