Overview
Today on Kalshi felt like watching a reality show where the cast is simultaneously playing tennis, betting on the weather, and yelling at Congress—chaotic, sweaty, and just a little bit petty. Wimbledon drama had users throwing rackets (and dollars) at long shots and heartbreakers. Meanwhile, the NYC mayoral race devolved into a Bill Ackman–backed soap opera. And as if that wasn’t enough, traders fought over whether July would burn the planet alive or whether the Pope deserved Person of the Year. No one was chill; everyone had “main character energy.”
3 Most Talked-About Markets
1. 🎾 Wimbledon Singles Chaos
Both men’s and women’s brackets turned the comments into a Wimbledon subreddit. August Holmgren gave bettors heart attacks at 17% odds, while Catherine McNally’s 7% moonshot payout had someone cashing $160.80 on a $23.45 bet—straight robbery. Bulls screamed “free money” on Swiatek and Dimitrov, while others lamented Elsa Jacquemot and Holmgren's tragic inability to “duece.”
“wtf Holmgren ugh” — jasonbourne, after watching his pick implode
2. 🗽 Bill Ackman’s Eric Adams Endorsement
Ackman’s begrudging endorsement of Adams had the markets at 97% and traders chest-thumping like they just shorted GameStop at the top. Everyone “sniped” and “checked the receipts,” linking to the NY Post article like it was the Zapruder film.
“Done! [link]” — Blue1234, dropping the mic
3. 🔥 Hottest July Ever?
Weather bears and bulls went to war in the “hottest July ever” market. Despite heat waves, users in snowy backyards and upstate NY clung to their contrarian No bets like stubborn icicles. One trader suggested everyone should “do their part by lighting shit on fire.” Another deadpanned: “bruh there’s still snow in my backyard.”
“EVERYONE DO YOUR PART BY LIGHTING SHIT ON FIRE” — locksy
🗣️ Quote Board
“don’t hold too long lol”
— ryans723, on McNally’s improbable win
“sniped, check the receipts”
— lagooncapital, basking in Ackman glory
“fuck this app”
— rdawg0510, after Ethereum failed him
“this elsa gonna give me a heart attack”
— jasonbourne, chasing Jacquemot
“my gas is over 3.19 I low key think this app isn’t statistical.”
— Moee, disillusioned by gas prices
“I am confident this movie will reach new levels of suck by the time the long weekend passes!”
— psqueezy, on ‘Jurassic World Rebirth’
“is this just a market on how long dollar store obama can keep talking?”
— JorkinDeBook, flaming the budget reconciliation slog
“wtf Holmgren ugh”
— jasonbourne, again (rough day for him)
🔥 Trend Watch
Long shot of the day: Catherine McNally in Wimbledon women’s singles. At just 7% odds, she turned a modest stake into a rent check. Meanwhile, traders sniffed around the Pope Leo XIV Person of the Year market, writing thousand-word treatises on why “Time” would never pick him — but maybe should — because everyone’s a Vatican scholar when money’s on the line.
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