Kalshi Markets: Trump's Approval, Alabama Lt. Gov, Prize

📖 New here? How to read this post

Every day, new prediction markets launch on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade on real-world outcomes. Think of this post as a quick vibe check on what’s new in culture, politics, and the world — when you see markets pop up for the Oscars, a surprise album drop, Saturday Night Live hosts, or the next Fed decision, it tells you something about what people are paying attention to right now.

How to read this: On Kalshi, an event is the big question being asked — for example, “Who will win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?” Each event contains one or more markets, which are the specific yes-or-no outcomes you can actually trade — like “Will 1949 / Fatherland win Best Picture?” at a given price. When an event has numeric thresholds (“Will the S&P 500 close above 5,500?”), those individual levels are called brackets.

For each new event below, we include a link to find it on Kalshi so you can see live pricing. The first thing to do with any new market is understand the rules — then decide if you have an edge.

Here's every new market that launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours (Sep 12 at 8:30 AM ET through Sep 13 at 8:30 AM ET). Our scan picked up 195 unique markets across 36 new events, plus 754 recurring bracket markets.

🏛️ Politics

1 event

9 markets

💹 Financials

1 event

10 markets

📊 Economics

3 events

42 markets

🎬 Entertainment

3 events

45 markets

🔬 Science and Technology

7 events

40 markets

🗳️ Elections

21 events

49 markets

⚡ What's Actionable Right Now

The launches from the past 24h with the tightest spreads and live two-sided quotes — i.e. the ones you can actually trade right now.

Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 13, 2026?: 39.6% bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, 39.5% bid 2¢ / ask 3¢, 39.0% bid 2¢ / ask 3¢

Alabama Lieutenant Governor winner?: Democratic party bid 1¢ / ask 5¢, Republican party bid 94¢ / ask 99¢

Arkansas Lieutenant Governor winner?: Libertarian party bid 1¢ / ask 5¢, Republican party bid 94¢ / ask 99¢

Idaho Lieutenant Governor winner?: Democratic party bid 1¢ / ask 5¢, Republican party bid 94¢ / ask 99¢

Oklahoma Lieutenant Governor winner?: Democratic party bid 1¢ / ask 5¢, Republican party bid 94¢ / ask 99¢

Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor winner?: Republican party bid 1¢ / ask 5¢, Democratic party bid 94¢ / ask 99¢

Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?: P versus NP Problem bid 1¢ / ask 6¢, Riemann Hypothesis bid 1¢ / ask 8¢, Yang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap Problem bid 1¢ / ask 10¢

All Events — every new event from the past 24h, at a glance

💹 Financials

10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 14, 2026?

🏛️ Politics

Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 13, 2026?

📊 Economics

🎬 Entertainment

🔬 Science and Technology

🗳️ Elections

All New Events

🏛️ Politics — 1 event, 9 markets

Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 13, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Sep 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET

View market strikes (9 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Below 39.0%	bid 2¢ / ask 4¢
39.6%	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
39.5%	bid 2¢ / ask 3¢
39.4%	bid 9¢ / ask 11¢
39.3%	bid 57¢ / ask 73¢
39.2%	bid 8¢ / ask 28¢
39.1%	bid 2¢ / ask 25¢
39.0%	bid 2¢ / ask 3¢
Above 39.6%	bid 2¢ / ask 8¢

💹 Financials — 1 event, 10 markets

10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 14, 2026? — 10 brackets — listed Sep 12, 2026 at 8:50 PM ET

View market strikes (10 brackets)

Bracket	Price
5.11% or above	ask 7¢ (no bids)
5.13% or above	ask 6¢ (no bids)
5.15% or above	ask 6¢ (no bids)
5.17% or above	ask 5¢ (no bids)
5.19% or above	—
5.21% or above	—
5.23% or above	—
5.25% or above	—
5.27% or above	—
5.29% or above	—

📊 Economics — 3 events, 42 markets

Diesel prices tomorrow — 21 brackets — listed Sep 13, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET

View market strikes (21 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above $6.255	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.250	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.245	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.240	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.235	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.230	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.225	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.220	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.215	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.210	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.205	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.200	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.195	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.190	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.185	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.180	bid 36¢ / ask 99¢
Above $6.175	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.170	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.165	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.160	bid 17¢ (no asks)
Above $6.155	bid 17¢ (no asks)

Brazil inflation rate in September — 11 brackets — listed Sep 12, 2026 at 4:14 PM ET

View market strikes (11 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 4.60%	bid 3¢ / ask 23¢
Above 4.50%	bid 12¢ / ask 32¢
Above 4.40%	bid 23¢ / ask 43¢
Above 4.30%	bid 36¢ / ask 56¢
Above 4.20%	bid 50¢ / ask 70¢
Above 4.10%	bid 62¢ / ask 82¢
Above 4.00%	bid 72¢ / ask 92¢
Above 3.90%	bid 80¢ / ask 99¢
Above 3.80%	bid 85¢ / ask 99¢
Above 3.70%	bid 87¢ / ask 99¢
Above 3.60%	bid 89¢ / ask 99¢

Diesel prices this week — 10 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 13, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET

🔗 See bracket structure on Kalshi →

🎬 Entertainment — 3 events, 45 markets

Runner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 14, 2026 — 15 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 13, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET

Tracking: Yeshanagula (From "The Paradise") (Telugu), Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip, Training Season (Live), Shararat, SaWaDiKa (Official Music Video), Parvati, LE SSERAFIM (르세라핌) 'Made My Night' OFFICIAL MV with OVERWATCH, KATSEYE (캣츠아이) 'Hootie Frutti' Official MV, KALYANI (Remix), Golden, Dai Dai, CRUSH - BENİM OLSANA | Official Music Video, Chhathi Maiya - The VVAAN | Sidharth Malhotra & Tamannaah | Vishal Mishra | Kaushal K | Chinni P, BbY WOW, Basinga Balaalu

🔗 View on Kalshi →

Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 14, 2026 — 15 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 13, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET

🔗 View on Kalshi →

Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Sep 14, 2026 — 15 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 13, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET

Tracking: WTF GOIN, Todo Lo Fue, Sunflower, SaWaDiKa, SaWaDiKa (Official Music Video), KATSEYE (캣츠아이) "Animal" Official MV, KATSEYE (캣츠아이) 'Hootie Frutti' Official MV, Jhené Aiko - So Good feat. Kendrick Lamar (Official Audio), Golden, Dead Fresh, Dai Dai, Choosin' Texas, BbY WOW, Backdoor, AH HA

🔗 View on Kalshi →

🔬 Science and Technology — 7 events, 40 markets

When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem? — 6 outcomes — listed Sep 12, 2026 at 5:54 PM ET

View market options (6 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Before 2028	bid 86¢ / ask 95¢
Before Jul 1, 2027	bid 76¢ / ask 85¢
Before 2027	bid 63¢ / ask 72¢
Before Oct 1, 2026	bid 24¢ / ask 33¢
Before Nov 1, 2026	bid 51¢ / ask 60¢
Before Dec 1, 2026	bid 59¢ / ask 68¢

When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved? — 6 outcomes — listed Sep 12, 2026 at 5:51 PM ET

View market options (6 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Before 2032	bid 69¢ / ask 78¢
Before 2031	bid 62¢ / ask 71¢
Before 2030	bid 56¢ / ask 65¢
Before 2029	bid 49¢ / ask 58¢
Before 2028	bid 41¢ / ask 50¢
Before 2027	bid 26¢ / ask 35¢

When will P vs NP be resolved? — 6 outcomes — listed Sep 12, 2026 at 5:49 PM ET

View market options (6 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Before 2040	bid 31¢ / ask 40¢
Before 2035	bid 21¢ / ask 30¢
Before 2030	bid 12¢ / ask 21¢
Before 2029	bid 10¢ / ask 19¢
Before 2028	bid 6¢ / ask 15¢
Before 2027	bid 1¢ / ask 10¢

When will Yang–Mills and the Mass Gap be resolved? — 6 outcomes — listed Sep 12, 2026 at 5:48 PM ET

View market options (6 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Before 2032	bid 45¢ / ask 54¢
Before 2031	bid 36¢ / ask 45¢
Before 2030	bid 34¢ / ask 43¢
Before 2029	bid 26¢ / ask 35¢
Before 2028	bid 16¢ / ask 25¢
Before 2027	bid 4¢ / ask 13¢

When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved? — 6 outcomes — listed Sep 12, 2026 at 5:46 PM ET

View market options (6 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Before 2032	bid 75¢ / ask 84¢
Before 2031	bid 74¢ / ask 83¢
Before 2030	bid 73¢ / ask 82¢
Before 2029	bid 71¢ / ask 80¢
Before 2028	bid 69¢ / ask 78¢
Before 2027	bid 51¢ / ask 60¢

Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next? — 5 outcomes — listed Sep 12, 2026 at 5:52 PM ET

View market options (5 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Yang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap Problem	bid 1¢ / ask 10¢
Riemann Hypothesis	bid 1¢ / ask 8¢
P versus NP Problem	bid 1¢ / ask 6¢
Hodge Conjecture	bid 47¢ / ask 56¢
Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture	bid 36¢ / ask 45¢

When will all Millennium Prize Problems be solved? — 5 outcomes — listed Sep 12, 2026 at 5:45 PM ET

View market options (5 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Before 2040	bid 33¢ / ask 42¢
Before 2035	bid 26¢ / ask 35¢
Before 2030	bid 16¢ / ask 25¢
Before 2029	bid 11¢ / ask 20¢
Before 2028	bid 6¢ / ask 15¢

🗳️ Elections — 21 events, 49 markets

Nebraska Secretary of State winner? — 4 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 12, 2026 at 8:13 PM ET

Tracking: Sarah J. Slattery, Scott Petersen, Paul Rumbaugh, Bob Krist

🔗 View on Kalshi →

Arkansas Secretary of State winner? — 3 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 12, 2026 at 8:13 PM ET

Tracking: Michael Pakko, Kim Hammer, Kelly Grappe

🔗 View on Kalshi →

Kansas Secretary of State winner? — 3 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 12, 2026 at 8:13 PM ET

Tracking: Scott Morgan, Pat Proctor, Jennifer Day

🔗 View on Kalshi →

South Dakota Secretary of State winner? — 3 outcomes — listed Sep 12, 2026 at 8:13 PM ET

View market options (3 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Tamara J. Lesnar	ask 94¢ (no bids)
Terrence Davis	ask 94¢ (no bids)
Heather Baxter	bid 75¢ / ask 99¢

Vermont Secretary of State winner? — 3 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 12, 2026 at 8:12 PM ET

Tracking: Sarah Copeland Hanzas, Rachel Shaw, H. Brooke Paige

🔗 View on Kalshi →

Wyoming Secretary of State winner? — 3 outcomes — listed Sep 12, 2026 at 8:12 PM ET

View market options (3 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Tamara Trujillo	ask 94¢ (no bids)
Robert Short	bid 75¢ / ask 99¢
Bryan McCarty	ask 95¢ (no bids)

Alabama Secretary of State winner? — 2 outcomes — listed Sep 12, 2026 at 8:13 PM ET