📖 New here? How to read this post
Every day, new prediction markets launch on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade on real-world outcomes. Think of this post as a quick vibe check on what’s new in culture, politics, and the world — when you see markets pop up for the Oscars, a surprise album drop, Saturday Night Live hosts, or the next Fed decision, it tells you something about what people are paying attention to right now.
How to read this: On Kalshi, an event is the big question being asked — for example, “Who will win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?” Each event contains one or more markets, which are the specific yes-or-no outcomes you can actually trade — like “Will 1949 / Fatherland win Best Picture?” at a given price. When an event has numeric thresholds (“Will the S&P 500 close above 5,500?”), those individual levels are called brackets.
For each new event below, we include a link to find it on Kalshi so you can see live pricing. The first thing to do with any new market is understand the rules — then decide if you have an edge.
Here's every new market that launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours (Sep 20 at 6:31 PM ET through Sep 21 at 6:31 PM ET). Our scan picked up 558 unique markets across 61 new events, plus 4,921 recurring bracket markets.
⚡ What's Actionable Right Now
The launches from the past 24h with the tightest spreads and live two-sided quotes — i.e. the ones you can actually trade right now.
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?: Eric Daugherty bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Mark Levin bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, Jake Paul last 1¢ (book empty)
How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (9/21-9/27) : 1 bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, 2 bid 1¢ / ask 2¢, 0 bid 1¢ / ask 3¢
Google market share this week: Above 20.0% bid 21¢ / ask 22¢, Above 16.7% bid 97¢ / ask 98¢, Above 17.5% bid 92¢ / ask 94¢
Qwen market share this week: Above 7.3% bid 14¢ / ask 15¢, Above 6.9% bid 17¢ / ask 18¢, Above 6.8% bid 19¢ / ask 20¢
DeepSeek market share this week: Above 26.8% bid 32¢ / ask 33¢, Above 25.7% bid 45¢ / ask 46¢, Above 25.4% bid 54¢ / ask 55¢
OpenAI market share this week: Above 21.7% bid 5¢ / ask 6¢, Above 17.8% bid 54¢ / ask 55¢, Above 17.3% bid 61¢ / ask 62¢
Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 22, 2026?: 40.5%, 40.4%, 40.3% all at bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
All Events — every new event from the past 24h, at a glance
- Alaska commercial salmon harvest in 2026?
- Brazil GDP growth YoY in Q3 2026
- Diesel prices this week
- Diesel prices tomorrow
- EV commodity prices on Sep 21, 2026
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 22, 2026?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 22, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 22, 2026?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 22, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 22, 2026?
- Fear & Greed Index on Oct 16, 2026?
- Alberta referendum: Remain vote share?
- Holborn and St Pancras by-election: 3rd place
- Serbian parliamentary election: Student List vote share?
- Serbian parliamentary election: voter turnout
- Texas Railroad Commissioner & Senate combo
- When will Greenland call a snap election?
- Who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?
- Will Saxony-Anhalt call a snap election in 2026?
- Oscar nominees: Achievement in Casting
- Oscar nominees: Best Supporting Actor
- Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor
- Runner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 22, 2026
- Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Sep 22, 2026
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 22, 2026
- Who will host Saturday Night Live Season 52?
- How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (9/21-9/27)
- How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
- How many House seats will Independents win in the Midterms?
- How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
- How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
- How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms?
- How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
- Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 22, 2026?
- When will the White House announce an end to its press ban?
- When will Trump name an AI czar?
- When will Trump officially rename AI?
- Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
- Who will Donald Trump talk to in Sep 2026?
- Will Putin visit the U.S. in 2026?
- Will the US ban diesel exports before Election Day?
- Will Trump publicly call for a global AI slowdown?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic share of requests on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- Anthropic share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- Best AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
- DeepSeek share of requests on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- Google market share this week
- Google share of requests on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- Moonshot AI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- Most popular AI this week
- OpenAI market share this week
- OpenAI share of requests on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- OpenAI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- OpenRouter token usage in Sep 21–27
- Qwen market share this week
- Tencent market share this week
- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 28th
- Top Coding AI this week
All New Events
📊 Economics — 5 events, 65 markets
Diesel prices this week — 21 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET
View market strikes (21 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above $6.72 | bid 5¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above $6.70 | bid 8¢ / ask 9¢ |
| Above $6.68 | bid 8¢ / ask 10¢ |
| Above $6.66 | bid 10¢ / ask 12¢ |
| Above $6.64 | bid 13¢ / ask 14¢ |
| Above $6.62 | bid 16¢ / ask 20¢ |
| Above $6.60 | bid 20¢ / ask 24¢ |
| Above $6.58 | bid 26¢ / ask 29¢ |
| Above $6.56 | bid 32¢ / ask 36¢ |
| Above $6.54 | bid 39¢ / ask 43¢ |
| Above $6.52 | bid 47¢ / ask 51¢ |
| Above $6.50 | bid 57¢ / ask 59¢ |
| Above $6.48 | bid 61¢ / ask 64¢ |
| Above $6.46 | bid 68¢ / ask 72¢ |
| Above $6.44 | bid 75¢ / ask 79¢ |
| Above $6.42 | bid 81¢ / ask 85¢ |
| Above $6.40 | bid 86¢ / ask 90¢ |
| Above $6.38 | bid 91¢ / ask 93¢ |
| Above $6.36 | bid 94¢ / ask 96¢ |
| Above $6.34 | bid 96¢ / ask 97¢ |
| Above $6.32 | bid 96¢ / ask 98¢ |
Diesel prices tomorrow — 21 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET
View market strikes (21 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above $6.560 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.555 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.550 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above $6.545 | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Above $6.540 | bid 3¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Above $6.535 | bid 10¢ / ask 14¢ |
| Above $6.530 | bid 23¢ / ask 26¢ |
| Above $6.525 | bid 43¢ / ask 44¢ |
| Above $6.520 | bid 62¢ / ask 63¢ |
| Above $6.515 | bid 83¢ / ask 87¢ |
| Above $6.510 | bid 94¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above $6.505 | bid 97¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above $6.500 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above $6.495 | bid 98¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above $6.490 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Above $6.485 | bid 98¢ (no asks) |
| Above $6.480 | bid 98¢ (no asks) |
| Above $6.475 | bid 98¢ (no asks) |
| Above $6.470 | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
| Above $6.465 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Above $6.460 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
EV commodity prices on Sep 21, 2026 — 15 brackets — listed Sep 20, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 1296.39 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1286.39 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1276.39 | last 2¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1266.39 | last 2¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1256.39 | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Above 1246.39 | ask 70¢ (no bids) |
| Above 1236.39 | bid 16¢ / ask 63¢ |
| Above 1226.39 | bid 96¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 1216.39 | bid 94¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1206.39 | bid 98¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1196.39 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1186.39 | bid 91¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1176.39 | bid 91¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1166.39 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
| Above 1156.39 | bid 99¢ (no asks) |
Alaska commercial salmon harvest in 2026? — 5 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 10:07 AM ET
Brazil GDP growth YoY in Q3 2026 — 3 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 10:12 AM ET
💹 Financials — 6 events, 80 markets
30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 22, 2026? — 15 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 5.49% or above | — |
| 5.47% or above | — |
| 5.45% or above | — |
| 5.43% or above | ask 5¢ (no bids) |
| 5.41% or above | ask 6¢ (no bids) |
| 5.39% or above | ask 7¢ (no bids) |
| 5.37% or above | ask 8¢ (no bids) |
| 5.35% or above | ask 9¢ (no bids) |
| 5.33% or above | ask 15¢ (no bids) |
| 5.31% or above | ask 15¢ (no bids) |
| 5.29% or above | bid 25¢ / ask 45¢ |
| 5.27% or above | bid 55¢ / ask 75¢ |
| 5.25% or above | bid 70¢ / ask 90¢ |
| 5.23% or above | bid 84¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 5.21% or above | bid 89¢ / ask 99¢ |
10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 22, 2026? — 15 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 5.14% or above | — |
| 5.12% or above | — |
| 5.1% or above | — |
| 5.08% or above | — |
| 5.06% or above | — |
| 5.04% or above | ask 7¢ (no bids) |
| 5.02% or above | ask 8¢ (no bids) |
| 5% or above | ask 13¢ (no bids) |
| 4.98% or above | bid 25¢ / ask 35¢ |
| 4.96% or above | bid 29¢ / ask 49¢ |
| 4.94% or above | bid 49¢ / ask 69¢ |
| 4.92% or above | bid 65¢ / ask 85¢ |
| 4.9% or above | bid 83¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.88% or above | bid 87¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.86% or above | bid 89¢ (no asks) |
7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 22, 2026? — 15 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 5.09% or above | — |
| 5.07% or above | — |
| 5.05% or above | — |
| 5.03% or above | — |
| 5.01% or above | — |
| 4.99% or above | — |
| 4.97% or above | ask 8¢ (no bids) |
| 4.95% or above | ask 10¢ (no bids) |
| 4.93% or above | bid 11¢ / ask 24¢ |
| 4.91% or above | bid 11¢ / ask 30¢ |
| 4.89% or above | bid 27¢ / ask 47¢ |
| 4.87% or above | bid 45¢ / ask 65¢ |
| 4.85% or above | bid 61¢ / ask 81¢ |
| 4.83% or above | bid 75¢ / ask 95¢ |
| 4.81% or above | bid 86¢ / ask 99¢ |
5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 22, 2026? — 15 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 4.99% or above | — |
| 4.97% or above | ask 5¢ (no bids) |
| 4.95% or above | ask 6¢ (no bids) |
| 4.93% or above | ask 7¢ (no bids) |
| 4.91% or above | ask 8¢ (no bids) |
| 4.89% or above | ask 12¢ (no bids) |
| 4.87% or above | ask 18¢ (no bids) |
| 4.85% or above | bid 13¢ / ask 33¢ |
| 4.83% or above | bid 40¢ / ask 60¢ |
| 4.81% or above | bid 67¢ / ask 87¢ |
| 4.79% or above | bid 71¢ / ask 91¢ |
| 4.77% or above | bid 88¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.75% or above | bid 92¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.73% or above | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
| 4.71% or above | bid 90¢ (no asks) |
2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 22, 2026? — 15 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET
View market strikes (15 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| 4.89% or above | ask 5¢ (no bids) |
| 4.87% or above | ask 10¢ (no bids) |
| 4.85% or above | ask 15¢ (no bids) |
| 4.83% or above | ask 23¢ (no bids) |
| 4.81% or above | ask 32¢ (no bids) |
| 4.79% or above | ask 43¢ (no bids) |
| 4.77% or above | last 85¢ (book empty) |
| 4.75% or above | last 56¢ (book empty) |
| 4.73% or above | bid 40¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.71% or above | bid 40¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.69% or above | bid 40¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.67% or above | bid 40¢ / ask 99¢ |
| 4.65% or above | bid 40¢ (no asks) |
| 4.63% or above | bid 40¢ (no asks) |
| 4.61% or above | bid 40¢ (no asks) |
Fear & Greed Index on Oct 16, 2026? — 5 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
Tracking: Extreme Greed, Extreme Fear, Neutral, Greed, Fear
🗳️ Elections — 8 events, 54 markets
Holborn and St Pancras by-election: 3rd place — 15 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 1:47 PM ET
View market options (15 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Workers Party | bid 3¢ / ask 7¢ |
| UK VOICE safer and stronger UK | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| UKIP - NO to Illegal Immigration | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Tom Darwood | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Reform UK | bid 38¢ / ask 47¢ |
| Rejoin EU | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Restore Britain | bid 2¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Official Monster Raving Loony Party | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Liberal Democrats | bid 4¢ / ask 12¢ |
| Labour Party | bid 2¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Green Party | bid 2¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Christian Peoples Alliance | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Conservative Party | bid 42¢ / ask 52¢ |
| Climate Party | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
| Communist League | bid 1¢ / ask 4¢ |
Who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia? — 10 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 3:14 PM ET
View market options (10 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Yuri Fulmer | ask 89¢ (no bids) |
| Steve Kooner | ask 90¢ (no bids) |
| Stockwell Day | ask 90¢ (no bids) |
| Sheldon Clare | ask 89¢ (no bids) |
| Lorne Doerkson | ask 90¢ (no bids) |
| Iain Black | ask 92¢ (no bids) |
| Harman Bhangu | ask 86¢ (no bids) |
| Chip Wilson | ask 92¢ (no bids) |
| Claire Rattée | ask 92¢ (no bids) |
| Caroline Elliott | ask 91¢ (no bids) |
Serbian parliamentary election: voter turnout — 9 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 1:47 PM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| At least 4,200,000 | bid 3¢ / ask 83¢ |
| At least 4,050,000 | bid 37¢ / ask 85¢ |
| At least 3,900,000 | bid 75¢ / ask 97¢ |
| At least 3,750,000 | bid 76¢ / ask 97¢ |
| At least 3,600,000 | bid 31¢ / ask 97¢ |
| At least 3,450,000 | bid 16¢ (no asks) |
| At least 3,300,000 | bid 14¢ (no asks) |
| At least 3,150,000 | bid 15¢ (no asks) |
| At least 3,000,000 | bid 11¢ (no asks) |
Alberta referendum: Remain vote share? — 6 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 4:52 PM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| At least 85% | ask 85¢ (no bids) |
| At least 80% | ask 92¢ (no bids) |
| At least 75% | ask 94¢ (no bids) |
| At least 70% | bid 5¢ (no asks) |
| At least 65% | bid 15¢ (no asks) |
| At least 60% | bid 25¢ / ask 99¢ |
Serbian parliamentary election: Student List vote share? — 6 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 1:47 PM ET
View market strikes (6 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| At least 50% | bid 3¢ / ask 62¢ |
| At least 46% | bid 13¢ / ask 62¢ |
| At least 42% | bid 14¢ / ask 63¢ |
| At least 38% | bid 58¢ / ask 62¢ |
| At least 34% | bid 58¢ / ask 93¢ |
| At least 30% | bid 70¢ / ask 98¢ |
Texas Railroad Commissioner & Senate combo — 4 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 1:47 PM ET
View market options (4 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Jon Rosenthal & James Talarico | bid 45¢ / ask 51¢ |
| Jon Rosenthal & Ken Paxton | bid 11¢ / ask 18¢ |
| Bo French & James Talarico | bid 4¢ / ask 12¢ |
| Bo French & Ken Paxton | bid 28¢ / ask 35¢ |
When will Greenland call a snap election? — 3 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 3:17 PM ET
View market options (3 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | bid 10¢ / ask 19¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | bid 6¢ / ask 15¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | bid 4¢ / ask 13¢ |
Will Saxony-Anhalt call a snap election in 2026?: Yes (bid 21¢ / ask 30¢) — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 4:23 PM ET
🎬 Entertainment — 8 events, 101 markets
Who will host Saturday Night Live Season 52? — 48 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 2:34 PM ET
Tracking: Travis Kelce, Timothée Chalamet, Taylor Swift, Tate McRae, SZA, Sydney Sweeney, Steve Carell, Simone Biles, Serena Williams, Sarah Silverman, Ryan Gosling, Reneé Rapp, Ramy Youssef, Quinta Brunson, PinkPantheress, Peso Pluma, Pedro Pascal, Paul Rudd, Patrick Mahomes, Olivia Rodrigo, Noah Kahan, MrBeast, Miley Cyrus, Margot Robbie, LeBron James, +23 more
Runner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 22, 2026 — 15 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET
View market options (15 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Zid | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Yeshanagula (From "The Paradise") (Telugu) | bid 7¢ / ask 84¢ |
| Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip | bid 7¢ / ask 80¢ |
| Training Season (Live) | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Shararat | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| SaWaDiKa (Official Music Video) | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Parvati | bid 7¢ / ask 62¢ |
| new trick | bid 6¢ / ask 81¢ |
| KATSEYE (캣츠아이) 'Hootie Frutti' Official MV | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| KALYANI (Remix) | bid 4¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Golden | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Dai Dai | bid 20¢ / ask 84¢ |
| Casa Tupka Anthemo | @YoYoHoneySingh feat. Priyanshi | Full Video | bid 7¢ / ask 85¢ |
| Basinga Balaalu | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Barsaat | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 22, 2026 — 15 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET
View market options (15 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Zid | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Yeshanagula (From "The Paradise") (Telugu) | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Training Season (Live) | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Shararat | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| SaWaDiKa (Official Music Video) | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Parvati | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| new trick | bid 5¢ (no asks) |
| KATSEYE (캣츠아이) 'Hootie Frutti' Official MV | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| KALYANI (Remix) | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Golden | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Dai Dai | bid 7¢ (no asks) |
| Casa Tupka Anthemo | @YoYoHoneySingh feat. Priyanshi | Full Video | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Basinga Balaalu | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Barsaat | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Sep 22, 2026 — 15 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET
View market options (15 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| WTF GOIN | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Todo Lo Fue | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Sunflower | bid 5¢ (no asks) |
| new trick | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Lord Verity - Master of Humanity (song) | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Let’s Get Married | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| KATSEYE (캣츠아이) "Animal" Official MV | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| KATSEYE (캣츠아이) 'Hootie Frutti' Official MV | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Joseph | bid 6¢ (no asks) |
| Janice STFU | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Golden | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Dead Fresh | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
| Dai Dai | bid 20¢ / ask 89¢ |
| Choosin' Texas | bid 8¢ / ask 75¢ |
| AH HA | ask 95¢ (no bids) |
Oscar nominees: Achievement in Casting — 4 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 2:07 PM ET
View market options (4 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Project Hail Mary | bid 9¢ / ask 15¢ |
| The Invite | bid 24¢ / ask 30¢ |
| The Debut | bid 50¢ / ask 60¢ |
| All of a Sudden | bid 10¢ / ask 20¢ |
Time's Person of the Year for 2026 — 2 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 5:23 PM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Chris Wright | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Pete Hegseth | bid 1¢ / ask 5¢ |
Oscar nominees: Best Supporting Actor: Guitarricadelafuente (bid 27¢ / ask 29¢) — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 2:03 PM ET
Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor: Guitarricadelafuente (bid 5¢ / ask 8¢) — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 2:02 PM ET
🏛️ Politics — 16 events, 87 markets
How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? — 14 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 3:09 PM ET
How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms? — 13 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 3:08 PM ET
How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? — 13 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 3:08 PM ET
How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms? — 11 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 3:09 PM ET
Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 22, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Below 39.9% | bid 61¢ / ask 63¢ |
| 40.5% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| 40.4% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| 40.3% | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| 40.2% | bid 5¢ / ask 6¢ |
| 40.1% | bid 5¢ / ask 6¢ |
| 40.0% | bid 12¢ / ask 13¢ |
| 39.9% | bid 14¢ / ask 16¢ |
| Above 40.5% | last 1¢ (book empty) |
When will Trump name an AI czar? — 6 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 4:31 PM ET
Tracking: Before Sep 25, 2026, Before Oct 30, 2026, Before Oct 23, 2026, Before Oct 16, 2026, Before Oct 9, 2026, Before Oct 2, 2026
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? — 4 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 5:06 PM ET
View market options (4 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Mark Levin | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Logan Paul | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Jake Paul | last 1¢ (book empty) |
| Eric Daugherty | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (9/21-9/27) — 3 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 5:04 PM ET
View market options (3 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| 2 | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| 1 | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| 0 | bid 1¢ / ask 3¢ |
How many House seats will Independents win in the Midterms? — 3 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 3:09 PM ET
How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms? — 3 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 3:09 PM ET
When will the White House announce an end to its press ban? — 2 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 1:47 PM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | bid 8¢ / ask 85¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | bid 11¢ / ask 89¢ |
When will Trump officially rename AI? — 2 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 1:46 PM ET
View market options (2 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | bid 2¢ / ask 10¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | bid 22¢ / ask 28¢ |
Will Putin visit the U.S. in 2026?: Yes (bid 7¢ / ask 14¢) — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 1:46 PM ET
Will Trump publicly call for a global AI slowdown?: Before Jan 1, 2027 (bid 4¢ / ask 9¢) — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 1:46 PM ET
Will the US ban diesel exports before Election Day? : Yes (bid 16¢ / ask 21¢) — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 1:18 PM ET
Who will Donald Trump talk to in Sep 2026?: Masoud Pezeshkian (bid 22¢ / ask 29¢) — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 11:15 AM ET
🔬 Science and Technology — 18 events, 171 markets
OpenRouter token usage in Sep 21–27 — 21 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 11:41 AM ET
View market strikes (21 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 164T tokens | bid 4¢ / ask 23¢ |
| Above 162T tokens | bid 6¢ / ask 37¢ |
| Above 160T tokens | bid 9¢ / ask 78¢ |
| Above 158T tokens | bid 11¢ / ask 85¢ |
| Above 156T tokens | bid 16¢ / ask 85¢ |
| Above 154T tokens | bid 19¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above 152T tokens | bid 24¢ / ask 94¢ |
| Above 150T tokens | bid 28¢ / ask 93¢ |
| Above 148T tokens | bid 34¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above 146T tokens | bid 39¢ / ask 97¢ |
| Above 144T tokens | bid 47¢ / ask 97¢ |
| Above 142T tokens | bid 53¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above 140T tokens | bid 58¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above 138T tokens | bid 64¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above 136T tokens | bid 70¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above 134T tokens | bid 75¢ / ask 97¢ |
| Above 132T tokens | bid 75¢ / ask 97¢ |
| Above 130T tokens | bid 15¢ / ask 95¢ |
| Above 128T tokens | bid 87¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above 126T tokens | bid 90¢ / ask 99¢ |
| Above 124T tokens | bid 93¢ / ask 97¢ |
Top Chinese AI Company week of September 28th — 10 outcomes — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
View market options (10 outcomes)
| Outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| Z.ai | bid 8¢ / ask 16¢ |
| Xiaomi | bid 2¢ / ask 3¢ |
| Tencent | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Moonshot | bid 6¢ / ask 29¢ |
| MiniMax | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Meituan | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| DeepSeek | bid 1¢ / ask 3¢ |
| ByteDance | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ |
| Baidu | bid 3¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Alibaba | bid 16¢ / ask 76¢ |
Moonshot AI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 4:54 PM ET
OpenAI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 4:54 PM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 28.5% | — |
| Above 27% | — |
| Above 25.5% | — |
| Above 24% | — |
| Above 22.5% | — |
| Above 21% | — |
| Above 19.5% | — |
| Above 18% | — |
| Above 16.5% | bid 11¢ (no asks) |
Anthropic share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 4:54 PM ET
Google share of requests on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 4:54 PM ET
OpenAI share of requests on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 4:54 PM ET
Anthropic share of requests on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 4:54 PM ET
DeepSeek share of requests on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel) — 9 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 4:53 PM ET
Google market share this week — 9 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 11:39 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 20.0% | bid 21¢ / ask 22¢ |
| Above 19.3% | bid 55¢ / ask 59¢ |
| Above 18.8% | bid 74¢ / ask 78¢ |
| Above 18.6% | bid 78¢ / ask 82¢ |
| Above 18.5% | bid 83¢ / ask 87¢ |
| Above 18.3% | bid 85¢ / ask 89¢ |
| Above 18.1% | bid 86¢ / ask 90¢ |
| Above 17.5% | bid 92¢ / ask 94¢ |
| Above 16.7% | bid 97¢ / ask 98¢ |
Qwen market share this week — 9 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 11:39 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 7.8% | bid 3¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Above 7.3% | bid 14¢ / ask 15¢ |
| Above 6.9% | bid 17¢ / ask 18¢ |
| Above 6.8% | bid 19¢ / ask 20¢ |
| Above 6.7% | bid 23¢ / ask 24¢ |
| Above 6.6% | bid 27¢ / ask 28¢ |
| Above 6.5% | bid 31¢ / ask 35¢ |
| Above 6.2% | bid 54¢ / ask 58¢ |
| Above 5.8% | bid 77¢ / ask 81¢ |
Tencent market share this week — 9 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 11:39 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 8.8% | bid 3¢ / ask 5¢ |
| Above 7.5% | bid 4¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above 6.6% | bid 10¢ / ask 14¢ |
| Above 6.4% | bid 12¢ / ask 16¢ |
| Above 6.2% | bid 14¢ / ask 18¢ |
| Above 5.9% | bid 18¢ / ask 20¢ |
| Above 5.7% | bid 21¢ / ask 25¢ |
| Above 4.9% | bid 62¢ / ask 66¢ |
| Above 3.5% | bid 69¢ / ask 73¢ |
DeepSeek market share this week — 9 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 11:39 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 28.1% | bid 4¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above 26.8% | bid 32¢ / ask 33¢ |
| Above 25.9% | bid 37¢ / ask 41¢ |
| Above 25.7% | bid 45¢ / ask 46¢ |
| Above 25.4% | bid 54¢ / ask 55¢ |
| Above 25.2% | bid 56¢ / ask 57¢ |
| Above 24.9% | bid 63¢ / ask 64¢ |
| Above 24.1% | bid 80¢ / ask 84¢ |
| Above 23.0% | bid 93¢ / ask 95¢ |
OpenAI market share this week — 9 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 11:39 AM ET
View market strikes (9 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 21.7% | bid 5¢ / ask 6¢ |
| Above 19.3% | bid 35¢ / ask 39¢ |
| Above 17.8% | bid 54¢ / ask 55¢ |
| Above 17.3% | bid 61¢ / ask 62¢ |
| Above 16.9% | bid 65¢ / ask 66¢ |
| Above 16.4% | bid 71¢ / ask 72¢ |
| Above 15.8% | bid 77¢ / ask 78¢ |
| Above 14.0% | bid 97¢ / ask 98¢ |
| Above 11.1% | bid 97¢ / ask 99¢ |
Top Coding AI this week — 9 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
Tracking: Qwen, MiniMax, Kimi, Grok, GLM, Gemini, Dola, Claude, ChatGPT
Best AI this week — 9 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
Tracking: Grok, ChatGPT, Kimi, MUSE, Gemini, Dola, Claude, Amazon Nova, Qwen
Anthropic market share this week — 7 brackets — listed Sep 21, 2026 at 11:39 AM ET
View market strikes (7 brackets)
| Bracket | Price |
|---|---|
| Above 3.1% | bid 6¢ / ask 8¢ |
| Above 2.9% | bid 10¢ / ask 13¢ |
| Above 2.8% | bid 15¢ / ask 19¢ |
| Above 2.7% | bid 21¢ / ask 25¢ |
| Above 2.6% | bid 32¢ / ask 36¢ |
| Above 2.5% | bid 43¢ / ask 47¢ |
| Above 2.3% | bid 60¢ / ask 64¢ |
Most popular AI this week — 7 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
Tracking: Z.ai, Xiaomi, Tencent, OpenAI, Google, DeepSeek, Anthropic
🔄 Recurring Markets
4,921 recurring markets also launched — these are auto-generated daily/weekly/hourly brackets (weather, crypto prices, index levels, etc.).
| Category | Markets | Series | Top Series |
|---|---|---|---|
| 💹 Financials | 3,912 | 24 | Nasdaq above/below, S&P 500 above/below, DJI Hourly, +21 more |
| 📊 Economics | 495 | 28 | Colorado gas price, Florida gas price, Michigan gas price, +25 more |
| 🌤️ Climate and Weather | 438 | 65 | Where will it rain daily, Where will it rain this weekend?, Hourly Directional Coastal LA Temperature, +62 more |
| 🎬 Entertainment | 51 | 6 | DAILY TOP YOUTUBE VIDEO, Will Album be runner up this week?, Billboard Top 200 #1, +3 more |
| 🔬 Science and Technology | 17 | 2 | Z.ai market share, Mistral market share |
| 🏛️ Politics | 8 | 2 | Trump tariffs on Canada: increase, Trump tariffs on Canada: reduction |
All data sourced from the Kalshi public API. Prices shown are indicative Yes contract bid/ask at time of publication and may have moved. Trade responsibly.