In Short
Olympic wrestling gold medalist Gable Steveson will make his UFC debut on the UFC 329 main card July 11 in Las Vegas.
The headline bout has its own Kalshi market, with Holloway trading around 76 cents and McGregor at 24 cents.
Watch for fight week press conferences and weigh-ins starting July 7, which could shift prices sharply.
What Happened
Gable Steveson, Olympic gold medalist and two-time NCAA heavyweight wrestling champion, confirmed his UFC debut against Elisha Ellison on the main card of UFC 329, set for July 11 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Steveson appeared alongside Jon Jones during the UFC 327 broadcast at Miami's Kaseya Center, building anticipation for his Octagon transition. His addition deepens an already stacked card headlined by the long-awaited rematch between Conor McGregor and Max Holloway, giving bettors and fans added reason to follow the entire event.
The Market
The contract to watch is KXUFCFIGHT-26JUL11MCGHOL-HOL, Holloway to win, trading around 76 cents and implying roughly a 76 percent chance the Hawaiian takes the victory. On the other side, KXUFCFIGHT-26JUL11MCGHOL-MCG has McGregor at 24 cents, with strong liquidity and over 77,000 contracts traded in the past 24 hours. A separate active market, KXTRUMPUFC-26JUL-DJT, prices the probability of Donald Trump attending UFC 329 at around 21 cents, adding a sideshow wildcard to fight night.
What To Watch
Fight week ramps up around July 7 with press conferences, open workouts, and the ceremonial weigh-in, all of which historically move UFC betting lines. Any injury news or McGregor training footage could compress or widen the current 52-cent gap between the two fighters. For the Trump attendance contract, travel schedule leaks or Secret Service advance-team sightings in Las Vegas would be the clearest catalysts ahead of the July 12 deadline.
This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.