Kalshi Markets: United Airlines, Trump, Treasury Yield

📖 New here? How to read this post

Every day, new prediction markets launch on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade on real-world outcomes. Think of this post as a quick vibe check on what’s new in culture, politics, and the world — when you see markets pop up for the Oscars, a surprise album drop, Saturday Night Live hosts, or the next Fed decision, it tells you something about what people are paying attention to right now.

How to read this: On Kalshi, an event is the big question being asked — for example, “Who will win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?” Each event contains one or more markets, which are the specific yes-or-no outcomes you can actually trade — like “Will 1949 / Fatherland win Best Picture?” at a given price. When an event has numeric thresholds (“Will the S&P 500 close above 5,500?”), those individual levels are called brackets.

For each new event below, we include a link to find it on Kalshi so you can see live pricing. The first thing to do with any new market is understand the rules — then decide if you have an edge.

Here's every new market that launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours (Sep 25 at 8:30 AM ET through Sep 26 at 8:30 AM ET). Our scan picked up 359 unique markets across 120 new events, plus 963 recurring bracket markets.

🏢 Companies

2 events

6 markets

📊 Economics

3 events

42 markets

🎬 Entertainment

4 events

46 markets

🔬 Science and Technology

4 events

51 markets

🗳️ Elections

6 events

19 markets

🏛️ Politics

16 events

90 markets

💹 Financials

85 events

105 markets

⚡ What's Actionable Right Now

The launches from the past 24h with the tightest spreads and live two-sided quotes — i.e. the ones you can actually trade right now.

United Airlines passengers flown in 2026: Above 196 million bid 4¢ / ask 5¢, Above 192 million bid 6¢ / ask 32¢, Above 194 million bid 5¢ / ask 32¢

When will Trump, Xi and Putin meet together?: Before Jan 1, 2028 bid 50¢ / ask 51¢, Before Jul 1, 2027 bid 39¢ / ask 40¢, Before Jan 1, 2027 bid 35¢ / ask 36¢

10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 28, 2026?: 5.02% or above bid 98¢ / ask 99¢, 5.04% or above bid 98¢ / ask 99¢, 4.9% or above bid 99¢ (no asks)

Will Trump visit China?: Before Dec 1, 2026 bid 88¢ / ask 89¢, Before Jan 1, 2027 bid 89¢ / ask 93¢

Chicago Board of Education President winner?: Victor Henderson bid 10¢ / ask 11¢, Sendhil Revuluri bid 9¢ / ask 10¢, Hilario Dominguez bid 43¢ / ask 44¢

Student list margin of victory in Serbia?: Student list, ≥20% bid 3¢ / ask 4¢, Student list, ≥15% bid 6¢ / ask 7¢, Student list, ≥10% bid 11¢ / ask 14¢

SNS-led list margin of victory in Serbia?: SNS-led list, ≥5% bid 51¢ / ask 52¢, SNS-led list, ≥25% bid 5¢ / ask 6¢, SNS-led list, ≥20% bid 10¢ / ask 11¢

All Events — every new event from the past 24h, at a glance

🏢 Companies

📊 Economics

🎬 Entertainment

🔬 Science and Technology

🗳️ Elections

🏛️ Politics

💹 Financials

All New Events

🏢 Companies — 2 events, 6 markets

United Airlines passengers flown in 2026 — 3 brackets — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 8:01 PM ET

View market strikes (3 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 192 million	bid 6¢ / ask 32¢
Above 194 million	bid 5¢ / ask 32¢
Above 196 million	bid 4¢ / ask 5¢

Chipotle headcount in fiscal 2026 — 3 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 25, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

🔗 See bracket structure on Kalshi →

📊 Economics — 3 events, 42 markets

Diesel prices tomorrow — 21 brackets — listed Sep 26, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET

View market strikes (21 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above $6.535	last 1¢ (book empty)
Above $6.530	—
Above $6.525	—
Above $6.520	—
Above $6.515	—
Above $6.510	—
Above $6.505	—
Above $6.500	—
Above $6.495	—
Above $6.490	—
Above $6.485	—
Above $6.480	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.475	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.470	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.465	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.460	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.455	bid 6¢ (no asks)
Above $6.450	bid 37¢ / ask 98¢
Above $6.445	bid 48¢ / ask 99¢
Above $6.440	bid 43¢ / ask 99¢
Above $6.435	bid 52¢ / ask 99¢

Total Fed dissents in 2027 — 14 brackets — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 12:13 PM ET

View market strikes (14 brackets)

Bracket	Price
13+	bid 3¢ / ask 10¢
Exactly 9	bid 3¢ / ask 5¢
Exactly 8	bid 3¢ / ask 6¢
Exactly 7	bid 4¢ / ask 8¢
Exactly 6	bid 5¢ / ask 10¢
Exactly 5	bid 3¢ / ask 12¢
Exactly 4	bid 3¢ / ask 12¢
Exactly 3	bid 3¢ / ask 11¢
Exactly 2	bid 3¢ / ask 11¢
Exactly 12	bid 3¢ / ask 5¢
Exactly 11	bid 3¢ / ask 5¢
Exactly 10	bid 3¢ / ask 6¢
Exactly 1	bid 3¢ / ask 10¢
Exactly 0	bid 12¢ / ask 22¢

Total Fed dissents in 2026 — 7 brackets — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 11:24 AM ET

View market strikes (7 brackets)

Bracket	Price
13+	bid 4¢ / ask 6¢
Exactly 9	bid 21¢ / ask 28¢
Exactly 8	bid 21¢ / ask 28¢
Exactly 7	bid 26¢ / ask 33¢
Exactly 12	bid 5¢ / ask 7¢
Exactly 11	bid 9¢ / ask 10¢
Exactly 10	bid 14¢ / ask 15¢

🎬 Entertainment — 4 events, 46 markets

Runner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 27, 2026 — 15 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 26, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET

Tracking: Yeshanagula (From "The Paradise") (Telugu), Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip, Shararat, SaWaDiKa (Official Music Video), Parvati, KALYANI (Remix), GHOSTFACE KILLAH (Official Video) | Sidhu Moose Wala | Mxrci | Navkaran Brar, Endhayya Saami | Ranabaali | Full Song | Vijay Deverakonda, Rashmika | Rahul Sankrityan | Ajay–Atul, Dai Dai, Casa Tupka Anthemo | @YoYoHoneySingh feat. Priyanshi | Full Video, BbY WOW, Basinga Balaalu, Barsaat, Afsaana Banaaya Aapne (From "Gunmaaster G9”), Aaya Sher

🔗 View on Kalshi →

Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 27, 2026 — 15 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 26, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET

🔗 View on Kalshi →

Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Sep 27, 2026 — 15 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 26, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET

Tracking: WTF GOIN, Todo Lo Fue, Sunflower, KATSEYE (캣츠아이) 'Hootie Frutti' Official MV, KATSEYE (캣츠아이) "Animal" Official MV, Joseph, Janice STFU, HOTEL LOBBY (Unc & Phew) (- A COLORS SHOW), Golden, DRAKE - QUEBEC, Dai Dai, Choosin' Texas, BloodHound Q50 - My Girl (Official Music Video), BbY WOW, AH HA

🔗 View on Kalshi →

People's Sexiest Man Alive for 2026: Jensen Ackles (bid 1¢ / ask 65¢) — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 4:13 PM ET

🔬 Science and Technology — 4 events, 51 markets

Top Text to Speech AI this week — 17 outcomes — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 10:05 AM ET

View market options (17 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
VUI Labs	bid 1¢ / ask 71¢
StepFun	bid 1¢ / ask 71¢
SpeechifyAI	bid 1¢ / ask 70¢
SpaceXAI	bid 2¢ / ask 75¢
Smallest.ai	bid 1¢ / ask 73¢
OpenAI	bid 1¢ / ask 73¢
Nvidia	bid 2¢ / ask 72¢
Mistral	bid 2¢ / ask 73¢
MiniMax	bid 2¢ / ask 74¢
Inworld	bid 6¢ / ask 72¢
Google	bid 4¢ / ask 75¢
Fish Audio	bid 1¢ / ask 73¢
ElevenLabs	bid 1¢ / ask 73¢
Cartesia	ask 91¢ (no bids)
Async	bid 2¢ / ask 72¢
Amazon	bid 1¢ / ask 70¢
Alibaba	bid 3¢ / ask 75¢

Top Open Source AI this week — 13 outcomes — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 10:05 AM ET

View market options (13 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Xiaomi	bid 6¢ / ask 86¢
Thinking Machines	bid 2¢ / ask 59¢
OpenAI	bid 2¢ / ask 59¢
Nvidia	bid 2¢ / ask 59¢
Mistral	bid 1¢ / ask 56¢
MiniMax	bid 1¢ / ask 56¢
Meta	bid 1¢ / ask 56¢
Kimi	bid 3¢ / ask 75¢
Google	bid 1¢ / ask 74¢
GLM	bid 3¢ / ask 75¢
DeepSeek	bid 3¢ / ask 75¢
Cohere	bid 1¢ / ask 74¢
Alibaba	bid 3¢ / ask 75¢

Top Text to Image AI this week — 11 outcomes — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 10:05 AM ET

View market options (11 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
SpaceXAI	bid 1¢ / ask 74¢
Reve	bid 1¢ / ask 74¢
Recraft	bid 1¢ / ask 74¢
OpenAI	bid 5¢ (no asks)
Nvidia	bid 1¢ / ask 74¢
Microsoft	bid 1¢ / ask 75¢
Krea	bid 1¢ / ask 74¢
HiDream	bid 1¢ / ask 74¢
Google	bid 3¢ / ask 75¢
Bytedance	bid 1¢ / ask 74¢
Black Forest Labs	bid 1¢ / ask 74¢

Top Text to Video AI this week — 10 outcomes — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 10:05 AM ET

View market options (10 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Vidu	bid 1¢ / ask 72¢
SpaceXAI	bid 1¢ / ask 73¢
Skywork AI	bid 1¢ / ask 73¢
PixVerse	bid 1¢ / ask 72¢
MiniMax	bid 6¢ / ask 72¢
Lightricks	bid 1¢ / ask 73¢
KlingAI	bid 1¢ / ask 72¢
Google	—
ByteDance	bid 1¢ / ask 73¢
Alibaba	bid 3¢ / ask 82¢

🗳️ Elections — 6 events, 19 markets

SNS-led list margin of victory in Serbia? — 5 outcomes — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET

View market options (5 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
SNS-led list, ≥5%	bid 51¢ / ask 52¢
SNS-led list, ≥25%	bid 5¢ / ask 6¢
SNS-led list, ≥20%	bid 10¢ / ask 11¢
SNS-led list, ≥15%	bid 16¢ / ask 17¢
SNS-led list, ≥10%	bid 31¢ / ask 32¢

Chicago Board of Education President winner? — 4 outcomes — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET

View market options (4 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Victor Henderson	bid 10¢ / ask 11¢
Sendhil Revuluri	bid 9¢ / ask 10¢
Jessica Biggs	bid 30¢ / ask 41¢
Hilario Dominguez	bid 43¢ / ask 44¢

Student list margin of victory in Serbia? — 4 outcomes — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET

View market options (4 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Student list, ≥5%	bid 21¢ / ask 28¢
Student list, ≥20%	bid 3¢ / ask 4¢
Student list, ≥15%	bid 6¢ / ask 7¢
Student list, ≥10%	bid 11¢ / ask 14¢

Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK? — 4 outcomes — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 12:29 PM ET

View market options (4 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Al Carns	bid 1¢ / ask 65¢
Zia Yusuf	ask 83¢ (no bids)
Darren Jones	bid 1¢ / ask 68¢
Jess Phillips	ask 91¢ (no bids)

Will the Republican Senate margin be lower in Nebraska than Kansas?: Yes (bid 16¢ / ask 58¢) — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 8:59 PM ET

Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (9/25-10/2)?: Above 8.3% (bid 56¢ / ask 57¢) — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 12:10 PM ET

🏛️ Politics — 16 events, 90 markets

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — 11 brackets — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 12:11 PM ET

View market strikes (11 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 75	bid 2¢ / ask 3¢
Above 50	bid 3¢ / ask 6¢
Above 45	bid 7¢ / ask 9¢
Above 40	bid 10¢ / ask 14¢
Above 35	bid 13¢ / ask 16¢
Above 30	bid 24¢ / ask 27¢
Above 25	bid 48¢ / ask 52¢
Above 20	bid 82¢ / ask 86¢
Above 15	bid 94¢ / ask 96¢
Above 100	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Above 10	bid 95¢ / ask 97¢

Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 26, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET

View market strikes (9 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Below 38.5%	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
39.1%	last 1¢ (book empty)
39.0%	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
38.9%	bid 2¢ / ask 4¢
38.8%	bid 58¢ / ask 59¢
38.7%	bid 35¢ / ask 37¢
38.6%	bid 5¢ / ask 6¢
38.5%	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Above 39.1%	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢

Generic congressional ballot on Sep 26, 2026? — 9 brackets — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET

View market strikes (9 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Below 8.0%	bid 2¢ / ask 12¢
8.6%	bid 2¢ / ask 10¢
8.5%	bid 3¢ / ask 8¢
8.4%	bid 7¢ / ask 21¢
8.3%	bid 5¢ / ask 10¢
8.2%	bid 52¢ / ask 75¢
8.1%	bid 5¢ / ask 14¢
8.0%	bid 2¢ / ask 20¢
Above 8.6%	bid 2¢ / ask 6¢

How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (9/28-10/4) — 8 candidates listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 25, 2026 at 12:10 PM ET

Tracking: 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0

🔗 View on Kalshi →

Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Oct 2, 2026? — 7 outcomes — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 12:11 PM ET

View market options (7 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Troy Jackson	bid 2¢ / ask 3¢
Sherrod Brown	bid 2¢ / ask 3¢
Mary Peltola	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
James Talarico	bid 82¢ / ask 88¢
Jon Ossoff	bid 3¢ / ask 4¢
Angie Nixon	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Abdul El-Sayed	bid 6¢ / ask 10¢

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (9/28 - 10/4) — 7 outcomes — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 12:11 PM ET

View market options (7 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
September 30	bid 16¢ / ask 20¢
September 29	bid 15¢ / ask 22¢
September 28	bid 12¢ / ask 18¢
October 4	bid 14¢ / ask 18¢
October 3	bid 12¢ / ask 16¢
October 2	bid 16¢ / ask 17¢
October 1	bid 14¢ / ask 17¢

How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (9/26-10/2) — 7 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 25, 2026 at 12:11 PM ET

🔗 See bracket structure on Kalshi →

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — 6 brackets — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 12:11 PM ET

View market strikes (6 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 8	bid 25¢ / ask 28¢
Above 6	bid 73¢ / ask 75¢
Above 4	bid 92¢ / ask 94¢
Above 14	bid 7¢ / ask 8¢
Above 12	bid 8¢ / ask 9¢
Above 10	bid 13¢ / ask 14¢

Traffic through the Suez Canal? (9/28 - 10/4) — 5 brackets — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 12:11 PM ET

View market strikes (5 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 300	bid 26¢ / ask 91¢
Above 290	bid 47¢ / ask 87¢
Above 280	bid 56¢ / ask 90¢
Above 270	bid 69¢ / ask 89¢
Above 260	bid 78¢ / ask 93¢

Traffic through the Panama Canal? (9/28 - 10/4) — 5 brackets — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 12:11 PM ET

View market strikes (5 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 275	bid 2¢ / ask 3¢
Above 250	bid 5¢ / ask 14¢
Above 225	bid 21¢ / ask 55¢
Above 200	bid 43¢ / ask 64¢
Above 175	bid 83¢ / ask 92¢

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/28 - 10/4) — 5 brackets — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 12:11 PM ET

View market strikes (5 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 250	bid 1¢ / ask 2¢
Above 225	bid 10¢ / ask 17¢
Above 200	bid 37¢ / ask 43¢
Above 175	bid 58¢ / ask 73¢
Above 150	bid 68¢ / ask 78¢

How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (9/27-10/3) — 4 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 25, 2026 at 12:12 PM ET

🔗 See bracket structure on Kalshi →

When will Trump, Xi and Putin meet together? — 3 outcomes — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 6:46 PM ET

View market options (3 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Before Jan 1, 2028	bid 50¢ / ask 51¢
Before Jul 1, 2027	bid 39¢ / ask 40¢
Before Jan 1, 2027	bid 35¢ / ask 36¢

Will Trump visit China? — 2 outcomes — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 1:41 PM ET

View market options (2 outcomes)

Outcome	Price
Before Jan 1, 2027	bid 89¢ / ask 93¢
Before Dec 1, 2026	bid 88¢ / ask 89¢

Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (9/27 - 10/3): Above 0 — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 12:10 PM ET

Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (9/25-10/2): Above 37.7% (bid 40¢ / ask 41¢) — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 12:10 PM ET

💹 Financials — 85 events, 105 markets

10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 28, 2026? — 10 brackets — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 3:50 PM ET

View market strikes (10 brackets)

Bracket	Price
5.04% or above	bid 98¢ / ask 99¢
5.02% or above	bid 98¢ / ask 99¢
5% or above	bid 98¢ (no asks)
4.98% or above	bid 98¢ (no asks)
4.96% or above	bid 98¢ (no asks)
4.94% or above	bid 98¢ (no asks)
4.92% or above	bid 98¢ (no asks)
4.9% or above	bid 99¢ (no asks)
4.88% or above	bid 98¢ (no asks)
4.86% or above	bid 98¢ (no asks)

10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026? — 10 brackets listed, no live quotes yet · Sep 25, 2026 at 12:21 PM ET

🔗 See bracket structure on Kalshi →

Grubhub App Downloads in September — 3 brackets — listed Sep 26, 2026 at 1:01 AM ET

View market strikes (3 brackets)

Bracket	Price
Above 146	ask 33¢ (no bids)
Above 150	ask 33¢ (no bids)
Above 154	ask 33¢ (no bids)

USD/JPY Up or Down – 15 minutes: Target price: TBD — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 8:01 PM ET

USD/JPY Up or Down – 15 minutes: Target price: TBD — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

EUR/USD Up or Down – 15 minutes: Target price: TBD — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

GBP/USD Up or Down – 15 minutes: Target price: TBD — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

Will Gen Digital acquire GoDaddy this year?: Before Jan 1, 2027 (bid 26¢ / ask 34¢) — listed Sep 25, 2026 at 12:59 PM ET

🔄 Recurring Markets

963 recurring markets also launched — these are auto-generated daily/weekly/hourly brackets (weather, crypto prices, index levels, etc.).

Category	Markets	Series	Top Series
📊 Economics	503	30	Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand, US gas price up, Nevada gas price, +27 more
🌤️ Climate and Weather	365	54	Where will it rain daily, Hourly Directional Coastal LA Temperature, Hourly Directional Chicago Metro Temperature, +51 more
💹 Financials	48	6	DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) eTT, Weekly DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) 4800/5600, 30Y how high monthly, +3 more
🏛️ Politics	32	4	Will Trump do anything today?, Number of Trump Truth Social posts this week?, President RCP approval rating this week, +1 more
🎬 Entertainment	15	1	DAILY TOP YOUTUBE VIDEO

All data sourced from the Kalshi public API. Prices shown are indicative Yes contract bid/ask at time of publication and may have moved. Trade responsibly.

New Kalshi Markets: United Airlines Passengers, Trump Visit China, Treasury Yiel — Past 24 Hours (as of 8:30:35 AM ET, Sep 26)

⚡ What's Actionable Right Now

All Events — every new event from the past 24h, at a glance

All New Events

🏢 Companies — 2 events, 6 markets

📊 Economics — 3 events, 42 markets

🎬 Entertainment — 4 events, 46 markets

🔬 Science and Technology — 4 events, 51 markets

🗳️ Elections — 6 events, 19 markets

🏛️ Politics — 16 events, 90 markets

💹 Financials — 85 events, 105 markets

🔄 Recurring Markets

Prediction News Network