Latest Kalshi Market Pricing
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Market Context
QUICK PICK
Bet YES on KXCLOSEHORMUZ-27JAN at 41.5 cents. Iran's Revolutionary Guards have declared the strait unsafe for commercial traffic, the U.S. Maritime Administration has advised vessels to avoid the area, and the conflict is entering its third day with no ceasefire in sight.
THE SETUP
This market asks whether Iran will formally close the Strait of Hormuz before August 2026. Vessel traffic through the strait has plummeted roughly 70%, with most ships diverting or idling, while Brent crude surged around 10% and benchmark European natural gas prices climbed more than 25%. Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery is partially shut, and Qatar has halted liquefied natural gas production following Iranian attacks. One key Hormuz closure contract sits at 41.5 cents with over 617,000 shares traded, making it the most actively traded of the Hormuz contracts. The nearer August 2026 contract prices a 34.5% chance, meaning traders see risk building over time rather than resolving quickly. Trump said operations could last four to five weeks, and Netanyahu offered no end date. With Khamenei dead, a new IRGC commander (Ahmad Vahidi) installed, and a three-person leadership council now holding power, Iranian decision-making is in transition, raising the risk of prolonged escalation rather than rapid negotiation.
THE PAYOFF
A YES position at 41 cents pays out at one dollar if the market resolves in favor of Iran closing the strait, with 411,059 YES shares already traded against 206,542 NO shares. Watch whether the current announced closure gets officially codified and enforced against vessel traffic. The nuclear deal contracts, with the highest YES bid sitting at just 17 cents, confirm traders see diplomacy as remote in the near term, which supports the closure risk remaining elevated throughout the year.
Kalshi Contract Analysis: Waterway Closure by Specified Entity
1. What You're Betting On
You're betting on whether a specific waterway or chokepoint (specified by the Exchange) will be effectively shut down to commercial shipping as a direct result of actions by a specific entity (also specified by the Exchange), before a certain deadline date.
2. How It Resolves
Yes ($1.00) if the waterway has "effectively closed" to cargo and tanker ships due to deliberate actions by the named entity, between the contract's issuance and the specified deadline.
"Effectively closed" has a precise, quantitative definition: the 7-day moving average of commercial vessel transits (cargo + tanker) through the waterway must drop by 90% or more compared to the 7-day moving average from 30 days prior to the alleged closure. This data comes from the IMF's PortWatch service.
What does NOT count:
Delays or enhanced inspections that still allow ships through eventually
Closures caused by weather, accidents, or technical failures unrelated to the named entity
Individual shippers voluntarily rerouting for their own commercial reasons
Actions that only block military vessels while commercial traffic continues
Traffic reductions of less than 90% (even 89% would resolve No)
Multi-actor situations: If several entities contribute to a closure, the contract only resolves Yes if the specified entity is identified as a direct cause — not merely a contributing factor.
Who decides: The IMF's PortWatch service is the primary quantitative source. The broader list of Source Agencies (AP, NYT, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, Financial Times, BBC, CNN, SBS, ABC Australia, South China Morning Post, Al Jazeera) is used to confirm the operational status and reporting around the closure.
3. Key Dates & Times
Market closes: Same as the Expiration Date and time — trading runs right up to expiration.
Expiration Date: One week after the deadline date specified by the Exchange (the `` parameter). Can move earlier if the event clearly occurs (per Rule 7.2).
Expiration Time: 10:00 AM ET.
Settlement: No later than the day after expiration, unless under review.
Early resolution: Yes — if the closure clearly happens before the deadline, Kalshi can expire the contract early.
There is no gap between the last trade and expiration here — they're simultaneous. But there may be a gap between when a closure actually occurs and when it's confirmed in the PortWatch data.
4. Quirks & Edge Cases
Template contract with placeholders. The entity (
<Entity>), place (<Place>), and date (<Date>) are all filled in by the Exchange for each specific market iteration. You need to check the specific contract listing to see which waterway, which actor, and which deadline you're actually trading. These could be, for example, "the Strait of Hormuz," "Iran," and "December 31, 2026."The 90% threshold is steep. This is near-total closure. A situation where half the ships reroute but some still get through would resolve No. Even a dramatic 85% reduction resolves No.
The 30-day baseline matters. The comparison is against the 7-day moving average from 30 days before the alleged closure — not against a historical norm. If traffic was already depressed for other reasons, the baseline is lower, making it harder (or easier, depending on direction) to hit the 90% drop.
Revisions ignored. If the IMF's PortWatch data is corrected or revised after the Expiration Date, that revision doesn't change the outcome. Only the data available at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date counts.
AND/OR logic for entities. The
<Entity>field can be a single actor, multiple actors joined by AND/OR, a category like "any state actor," or even "unknown entity." Read the specific listing carefully — "any entity" is a very different bet than "Iran."Causation requirement is strict. The closure must be the "direct result" of the named entity's actions. If a waterway closes because of a chain reaction triggered partly by that entity, it may not qualify unless they're identified as a direct cause.
Position limit: $25,000 per strike, per member.
5. Who Can't Trade This
The standard Kalshi prohibitions apply:
Employees of any Source Agency (IMF, AP, NYT, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, FT, BBC, CNN, SBS, ABC Australia, SCMP, Al Jazeera)
Anyone with material non-public information about the outcome
Anyone who can influence the outcome (this is a notably broad category for a geopolitical contract)
No additional political-market-style restrictions are listed in the rules text, but the "can influence the outcome" prohibition could conceivably apply to government or military officials depending on the entity and place specified.
6. Bottom Line for Traders
This is a geopolitical binary bet with a very high bar — 90% traffic reduction is near-total shutdown, not just disruption. The most important thing to understand is that the specific entity, waterway, and deadline are filled in per listing, so read the actual contract page carefully before trading. Watch IMF PortWatch data for transit counts, and remember that the causation must be directly attributable to the named entity. If you're used to Houthi-style disruption where ships reroute but the waterway technically stays open, that almost certainly resolves No under these rules.