A taker stepped up on NO, landing on the NO side of whether Hideki Matsuyama will lead at the end of Round 1 in the Charles Schwab Challenge — the NO side wins if Matsuyama does NOT hold the lead. 30,000 NO contracts at 98¢ each, totaling $29,280. With no resting orders and zero liquidity on the book, the trade absorbed without a visible price shift. The market currently sits at a 2¢ YES bid, implying roughly a 2% probability for Matsuyama leading after Round 1.
📊 Last 33 trades: 33 trades over 11.3 hours (6:19 AM to 5:36 PM ET), NO volume leads $61,574 to $103, price holding near 2¢. One $29,280 NO trade (30,000 contracts) accounts for 47% of the flow.
🐋 About Whale Watch
You do not have to watch Kalshi all day — we do. Prediction News Network tracks every big bet on the Kalshi prediction-market exchange in real time and flags the whales the moment they hit. Each one gets written up below so you can see exactly what was bet, at what price, and whether the market moved.
What counts as a whale? Sports & crypto: $25,000+ · Parlays: $8,000+ · Politics, culture, economy: $5,000+
No takes. No predictions. Just the trade, the data, and the market reaction.
No takes. No predictions. Just the trade, the data, and the market reaction.
This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.