TODAY’S TOP STORY
⚾ MLB 2nd Half Starts Tonight in Philly
The Mets visit the Phillies Thursday night at Citizens Bank Park — MLB's lone second-half opener (7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN). Philadelphia is 45-24 since dismissing manager Rob Thomson on April 28, tied for baseball's best record; the 40-57 Mets are out of the NL playoff picture.
That form gap is what 54% Phillies pricing reflects. Tonight's pitching matchup runs the other way:
Christian Scott (NYM): back from Tommy John, 3.17 ERA over 54 innings, strikeout stuff.
Aaron Nola (PHI): 5.75 ERA and 3-6 record, a season below expectations despite two sharper pre-break starts.
With Juan Soto hitting to a 163 wRC+, Mets at 46¢ prices the season, not the game.
Best trade: Limit buy Mets YES at 46¢
BAT SIGNALS
🦇 Batman Part II: Delayed past Feb. 18, 2028?
Warner Bros. on July 15 moved Matt Reeves' The Batman Part II off Oct. 1, 2027 to Feb. 18, 2028, its second major shift since the original Oct. 2025 date. Reeves announced the change himself and released a first-look teaser of Robert Pattinson stamped with the new date.
"Yes" at 23¢ overprices another slip. This delay was built for cushion, not chaos:
Post-production buffer: the move exists specifically to give Reeves extra time in post — the schedule risk is already absorbed.
Studio commitment: IMAX locked for the new date, and a date-branded teaser is marketing spend studios rarely walk back.
Fresh reset: the date is one day old, with 19 months of runway.
Best trade: Limit buy No at 78¢
(A)IPO
🤖 Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
Anthropic, the Claude maker valued at $965 billion after its May round, is scheduling investor meetings ahead of a potential IPO, Bloomberg reported July 15. Kalshi prices Anthropic at 84% to list before OpenAI, up 5 points on the news.
Even at 85¢, the gap to fair value looks wide:
Timing (October): Banks led by Morgan Stanley, Goldman, and JPMorgan are booking investor meetings in the coming weeks — the step that precedes a roadshow — targeting a listing as soon as October.
OpenAI slippage: OpenAI abandoned its fall 2026 target and is now eyeing 2027 — leaving no live competing timeline. Bret Taylor (OpenAI Chairman) was on CNBC today and downplayed their chances of going public this year.
The remaining 15¢ mostly prices delay risk, not a real OpenAI counter-move.
Best trade: Anthropic "Yes" at 85¢
HOT OFF THE KALSHI
New Markets
Kalshi listed 161 new markets across 34 events in the past 24 hours, plus 3,892 recurring brackets (mostly index, crypto, and weather auto-listings). The bulk of new events sit in Climate/Weather (11 events) and Financials (17 events), with a handful of politics, elections, and entertainment listings. Most tradeable right now, with tight two-sided quotes:
FISA reauthorization: Before Aug 15 bid 28¢ / ask 29¢; Before Sep 1, 28¢ / 32¢
Lululemon Americas Q2 comps: Above -11% at 37/38¢; Above -10% at 32/33¢
World Cup Bronze-Final get-in price: Above $850 at 41/42¢
Hurricane Elida: Cat 2+ at 47/48¢; Cat 3+ at 14/15¢
PayPal acquired this year (Stripe/Advent): bid 54¢ / ask 59¢
Batman Part II delayed past Feb 18, 2028: bid 47¢ / ask 53¢
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