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Market Context for KXMRBEASTSALESFORCECHALLENGE
On February 8, 2026, YouTube's most-subscribed creator Jimmy Donaldson, known as MrBeast, unveiled a Super Bowl commercial for Salesforce that doubled as the launch of an enormous real-world puzzle competition. The prize: one million dollars locked in a vault, waiting for whoever solves it first.
The challenge directs participants to mrbeast.salesforce.com, where a multi-stage puzzle blends hidden clues from the Super Bowl ad, social media posts, mystery videos, and collaboration tools inside the Slack platform.
Designed with help from puzzle specialists Lone Shark Games, the contest rewards creativity, logic, and persistence across a series of nonlinear, interconnected steps. MrBeast himself acknowledged the scale of difficulty, noting the puzzle was built for mass teamwork and that even after a week, nobody had come close to winning.
Over 70 million site visits were recorded in early days alone, yet no correct final solution had been submitted.
Kalshi Market Pricing (2/25, 12:30 pm ET)
As for when it might be solved, prediction markets offer some guidance. Kalshi's market suggests approximately 56% odds of completion by April 2026, rising to about 65% by June 2026.
By January 2027, market participants place the likelihood of someone winning at around 90%. The winner simply needs to send their completed solution to MrBeast on Slack.
Kalshi Contract Analysis: MrBeast "Million Dollar Puzzle" Challenge
1. What You're Betting On
You're betting on whether anyone successfully completes the MrBeast "Million Dollar Puzzle" challenge — launched in partnership with Salesforce during the February 8, 2026 Super Bowl broadcast — before a specified deadline.
2. How It Resolves
Yes ($1.00): Someone (any person) actually solves/completes the Million Dollar Puzzle challenge, as confirmed by MrBeast, Salesforce, their official social media accounts, or any of the listed major news outlets.
No ($0.00): Nobody completes the challenge before the deadline, or only partial/unofficial attempts are documented.
What counts:
Full completion of whatever the puzzle's stated success criteria are, by any person, documented by the source agencies after the contract was issued and before the deadline date.
What doesn't count:
Announcements of intent to solve it without actually solving it
Partial completion or failed attempts
Completion after the deadline, even if started before
Practice or unofficial attempts (unless the rules explicitly allow them)
Completion that is later retracted — but note the twist below in Edge Cases
Who decides: The source hierarchy starts with MrBeast himself and his verified social media, then Salesforce's accounts, then Guinness World Records, then major news outlets (NYT, AP, Reuters, ESPN, CNN, etc.). Any one of these confirming the completion is sufficient — they don't all need to agree.
3. Key Dates & Times
The template uses placeholders, so the exact dates depend on what Kalshi filled in. Based on the structure:
Last Trading Date: The day before the specified deadline (
<date>), with trading closing at 11:59 PM ET.Expiration Date: Up to one week after the deadline date — giving time for documentation/confirmation to surface.
Expiration Time: 10:00 AM ET on the expiration date.
Early Resolution: Yes. If someone verifiably completes the puzzle before the deadline, the contract can resolve early under Rule 7.2.
Settlement: No later than the day after expiration, unless under review.
The gap that matters: Trading stops the night before the deadline, but the contract doesn't officially expire until up to a week later. This buffer exists because confirmation of completion might take days to be documented by the source agencies.
4. Quirks & Edge Cases
"Any person" language: This contract uses
<person>to mean any person — it's not limited to a specific individual. Anyone who solves the puzzle counts.Retraction doesn't undo a Yes: If the contract resolves Yes (someone completed it), and that completion is later retracted or disputed, the initial Yes resolution stands. This is a big one — once it's called, it's called.
Revisions after expiration are ignored: If a source agency corrects their reporting after the expiration date (e.g., "actually, the puzzle wasn't truly solved"), that correction doesn't change the outcome.
Massive source list: Over 20 source agencies are listed. A single credible report from any of them — including MrBeast's own TikTok or Instagram — is enough to trigger resolution. You don't need a formal Guinness certification or a NYT article.
MrBeast himself is the top source: He's first in the hierarchy. If he posts on X "Someone solved it!" — that's sufficient for a Yes resolution, full stop.
Position limit: $25,000 per strike, per member.
"Successful completion" is strictly defined: All specified objectives of the challenge must be met. The contract doesn't define what those objectives are — that's determined by the challenge rules as defined by MrBeast/Salesforce. You'd need to understand the actual puzzle rules independently.
5. Who Can't Trade This
Employees of any Source Agency (MrBeast's team, Salesforce employees, journalists at the listed outlets)
Anyone with material non-public information about the outcome (e.g., someone who knows the puzzle has been solved before it's announced)
Anyone who can influence the outcome (e.g., someone involved in designing or judging the puzzle)
6. Bottom Line for Traders
Watch MrBeast's and Salesforce's social media accounts — they're the fastest and highest-priority source for resolution. The key thing to understand is that this is an "any person" challenge, so you're not betting on a specific individual but on whether the puzzle itself gets solved by anyone before the deadline. The most important gotcha: if a completion is announced and the contract resolves Yes, a later retraction or dispute won't reverse it. If you're trading this, make sure you understand what the actual puzzle challenge requires, because the contract inherits those rules by reference without spelling them out.