Prediction News Network delivers clear context and insight on tradable events, informed both by the event itself and the current price.

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Today’s Rundown

What’s Happening: Minnesota’s 2026 governor’s race is still nearly nine months from the GOP primary, but the Republican field just got a jolt. Mike Lindell — the MyPillow CEO and longtime Trump ally — officially jumped into a race that already included about a dozen Republicans. The winner will face Democratic Gov. Tim Walz, who is seeking a third term.

Lindell enters with high name recognition, nonstop media attention, and a base of loyal supporters, but he also carries heavy legal and political baggage from his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. His entry immediately reshapes the dynamics: instead of a quiet contest among traditional Republicans like Chris Madel, Lisa Demuth, Scott Jensen, and Rep. Kristin Robbins, the primary now has a celebrity-style candidate who can dominate headlines and overshadow the field.

Walz and Democrats are already framing Lindell as too extreme for Minnesota, while Republicans are now navigating an unpredictable mix of establishment, grassroots, and personality-driven politics. The basic stage: a crowded field, a high-profile newcomer, and an August primary that suddenly looks far less orderly.

Market Pricing

Scenarios

If Lindell’s name recognition converts into real grassroots energy, he can quickly become a top-tier contender simply by dominating attention and rallying Trump-aligned voters.

If party officials and donors coalesce early around Madel or another establishment figure, the field could stabilize and limit Lindell’s ceiling.

Trading Takeaway

Early read: Madel is the structure candidate, but Lindell injects real volatility. His entry raises the probability of a chaotic, low-consensus primary. With pricing still light, Lindell Yes at 21¢ offers upside on media-driven momentum.

What’s Happening: Myles Garrett is in full-blown history-hunt mode. Sitting at 20 sacks through 13 games, he’s three away from surpassing Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt’s 22.5 single-season record. The pace stats are loud: 26.9-sack trajectory, 3+ sacks in three games this season, and a seven-game streak with at least one sack. Cleveland is leaning into it — coaches, teammates, even rookie QB Shedeur Sanders openly say the offense is trying to generate leads just to give Garrett more pass-rush reps.

The schedule tightens now. Next up: Chicago at Soldier Field on Dec. 14, with wind chills in the single digits. Caleb Williams is elusive, the Bears run the ball heavily, and their O-line allows the fifth-fewest sacks in the NFL — a sharp contrast from the Titans last week (league-high 48 allowed). After Chicago comes Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati — all middling-to-low sack-allowance teams. Garrett’s dominance is undisputed; the conditions are where the race gets complicated.

Market Pricing

Scenarios:
If Cleveland plays from ahead, Chicago is forced into dropbacks, giving Garrett the shot for a multi-sack eruption — exactly how he’s posted his three 3-plus-sack games this season.

If the Bears lean into the run game and Williams’ escapability, they can cut Garrett’s attempts dramatically, mirroring Tennessee’s approach that held him to just one sack last week.

If Garrett logs even one sack vs. Chicago, the narrative pressure and matchup rotation against three pass-centric offenses down the stretch resets momentum toward the record.

Trading Takeaway:
Garrett is performing at an all-time level, but the path to three sacks in four games is materially harder than the headline pace implies — Chicago’s low sack rate and cold-weather run scripts are real headwinds. Liquidity is light, and the market is pricing a best-case continuation.

Call: Short “Yes” at 80¢, expecting tighter spreads and a possible slide into the mid-70s unless Garrett posts a multi-sack game this week.

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What’s Happening: Golden State and Minnesota collide at Chase Center in a rematch of last spring’s five-game semifinal series, where Jonathan Kuminga — not Steph, not Ant, not anyone else — led the Warriors in scoring at 20.8 PPG before Golden State’s offense collapsed the moment Curry’s hamstring did.

Fast-forward to tonight: Kuminga’s role is suddenly in limbo after a DNP-CD and some blunt honesty from Steve Kerr. Golden State is 13–12, searching for stability but buoyed by Curry’s return from a thigh contusion. Minnesota (15–9) arrives off a bad home loss to a depleted Phoenix squad, still dealing with Anthony Edwards’ foot soreness and missing Mike Conley.

Market Pricing

Scenarios: If Anthony Edwards plays near full usage and Minnesota hits even league-average from deep after Monday’s 26% brickfest, the Wolves’ size and paint advantage could control the game and flip momentum early.

If Steph returns clean and Golden State’s spacing reopens — especially with Butler, Podziemski shooting well — Minnesota’s perimeter defense will be stretched thin and the Wolves could find themselves chasing all night.

Trading Takeaway:
The market is treating this like a true 50/50, but Golden State’s rest edge plus Curry’s return gives the Warriors a modest situational advantage — even if Minnesota remains the more complete team on paper.

Liquidity is solid, spreads are tight, and pricing hasn’t overreacted to Edwards’ questionable tag. At 52¢, GSW Yes is a slight value lean for traders expecting the Warriors’ vets plus home floor to carry late.

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