NBA Play-In, Alix Earle, Trump - Midday Market Edge

Miami at Charlotte winner 🏀 "Charlotte wins" YES @ 68¢

Charlotte is a 5.5-point home favorite with the total set at 227.5. Miami won the season series 3-1, but the Hornets won the last meeting by 30 points — a blowout that likely reflects the team Charlotte is right now more than the one that lost in November. The Hornets allow a league-fewest 47.9 rebounds per game, which chokes off second chances and should limit Bam Adebayo, who averaged just 8 rebounds in two games against Charlotte this season. Rookie of the Year contender Kon Knueppel has 18.5 PPG, and Miami's defense has posted a brutal 125 defensive rating over its last 15 games.

Portland at Phoenix winner 🏀 "Phoenix wins" YES @ 60¢

Phoenix (45-37) took the season series 2-1, averaging 128 points in its two wins over Portland. The Blazers' lone victory was a 92-77 defensive grind in Phoenix back in February — the Suns' lowest-scoring game at the time — but replicating that is a tall order. Portland leans on Deni Avdija (24.2 PPG) and Donovan Clingan (11.6 RPG, 2.3 BPG) to carry the load, but the Blazers rank 27th in three-point percentage (34.3%) and can't afford a cold night against a Suns team getting Booker, Dillon Brooks, and Jalen Green back healthy. The winner draws the No. 2 seed San Antonio Spurs in the first round.

Will Alix Earle go on Call Her Daddy this year? 🎧 "Alix Earle appears" NO @ 54¢

Cooper publicly called out Earle on TikTok for "passive aggressive reposts" and said explicitly: "There's no NDA. No one is stopping you." Earle's response — reposting the video and commenting "Okay on it!!" — reads as someone preparing to go public, not someone backing down. This is a binary bet on whether the feud turns into a reconciliation sit-down (bullish) or a full break (bearish). Note there is a wide bid-ask spread. Cooper's "no NDA" line is an open invitation — the question is whether Earle takes it as an olive branch or a dare.

Trump's approval rating on Friday (Apr 17) 📊 "Below 41.1" YES @ 67¢

Trump's RealClearPolitics approval rating is currently tracking below 41.1, and the market gives a 67% chance it stays there through Thursday. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from February found 61% of Americans think Trump has become more erratic with age, and only 45% call him "mentally sharp" — down from 54% in 2023. The Pope feud and deleted AI image add noise, but the floor was already soft. Catholic clerics are calling on Trump to apologize after he called Pope Leo "weak on crime" — and Trump declined. When 61% of the public already questions your stability and you pick a public fight with the Pope during a 10-day Africa tour that keeps the story alive for days, the approval ceiling is hard to see.

Tom Steyer to finish 1st in CA governor primary 🗳️ "Steyer finishes 1st" YES @ 56¢

Swalwell suspended his gubernatorial campaign and announced his resignation from Congress after multiple women accused him of sexual assault. His primary market cratered from competitive to sub-1¢. Tom Steyer now leads at 56¢ with Steve Hilton at 36¢ — the question is where Swalwell's Democratic voters land. Both parties praised the resignation, and Andrew Yang called Swalwell's career "lightweight," signaling no one is rushing to defend him or his coalition.

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Will Meta release Llama 5 before Jan 2027? 🧠 "Llama 5 released" NO @ 88¢

Meta is training a photorealistic 3D AI version of Zuckerberg — built on his voice, mannerisms, and views on company strategy — that could eventually speak with employees on his behalf. That's where the company's AI energy is going: product-facing characters, creator doppelgangers, and smaller task-specific models like MuseSpark, which launched last week and pushed Meta shares up 7%. The $21 billion CoreWeave infrastructure commitment is real, but none of it appears aimed at shipping a next-generation open-source foundation model. There have been no recent reports of a Llama 5 in development, and Meta's recent releases — MuseSpark, celebrity chatbots, internal AI tools — all point toward the Muse and Avocado model families, not Llama. At 89¢, NO already reflects this, but the thesis is straightforward: Meta hasn't abandoned AI, they've just moved past the Llama series as their flagship. Even if they ship a new open-source model this year, it's more likely to carry a different name.

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