New Glenn Flies Again on Kalshi as Booster Lands Successfully

- Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launched its third mission April 19 from Cape Canaveral, recovering its booster for the first time.

- The Kalshi "Before May" launch contract is trading at 98 cents, reflecting near-certainty the rocket flew.

- Watch for early contract resolution before the May 1 expiration and any investigation delays on future flights.

Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket completed its third mission, NG-3, at 7:25 a.m. EDT on April 19, 2026, lifting off from Launch Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. The first-stage booster, nicknamed "Never Tell Me The Odds," was successfully recovered on the droneship "Jacklyn" roughly 10 minutes after liftoff. This marked the first reuse of a New Glenn orbital-class booster. However, the upper stage underperformed, placing AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird 7 satellite into an orbit of about 95 miles instead of the planned 285 miles. The satellite will be deorbited.

KXNEWGLENN-26B-MAY is trading around 98 cents, meaning the market sees near-total certainty that New Glenn launched before May. Since the rocket clearly left the launchpad on April 19, this contract should resolve YES early under the rule allowing earlier expiration when the payout event occurs.

The KXNEWGLENN-26B-MAY contract expires May 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET, but early resolution could come any day now that the launch criterion is met. An investigation into the upper stage failure could potentially delay upcoming New Glenn missions, suggesting the timeline for future launches may face additional scrutiny. Those delays could potentially affect Amazon's broadband constellation launches and the uncrewed Blue Moon lunar lander flight planned for later in 2026, suggesting the ripple effects may extend well beyond a single mission. They would also matter for any longer-dated New Glenn contracts on Kalshi.