NFL Draft Prediction Markets: Long Shots Priced Near Zero on Kalshi

- Every major mock draft unanimously projects Fernando Mendoza as the No. 1 overall pick to the Las Vegas Raiders.

- Kalshi contracts for alternative first picks like Arvell Reese and Jeremiyah Love are asking just 1 cent.

- Round 1 begins April 23 in Pittsburgh. Watch for any pre-draft trades that could shake things up.

The 2026 NFL Draft is approaching, and the early buzz suggests the consensus may be as locked in as it gets. Fernando Mendoza threw an FBS-high 41 touchdowns against just six interceptions while leading Indiana to a 16-0 record and a national championship. He is widely regarded as a top prospect, and evaluations across major outlets consistently place him as the consensus No. 1 pick. ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. says "you can write this pick in Sharpie." The Las Vegas Raiders hold the top selection, and no analyst identifies any other player as a realistic candidate.

KXNFLDRAFT1-26-AREE, the contract for Arvell Reese to go first overall, is asking just 1 cent — and with the consensus strongly favoring Mendoza as the No. 1 pick, that rock-bottom price reflects Reese's long-shot status. That translates to roughly a 1% implied probability, reflecting the near-total consensus around Mendoza. The Jeremiyah Love contract, KXNFLDRAFT1-26-JLOV, sits at the same 1 cent ask. ESPN's Draft Day Predictor gives Jeremiyah Love a 45% chance to be selected at No. 4 and only a 21% chance of going before that pick, meaning Love is not projected anywhere near the No. 1 overall selection.

Round 1 kicks off at 8 PM ET on Thursday, April 23 in Pittsburgh, when the Raiders will announce their pick. A surprise pre-draft trade of the No. 1 selection or a last-minute Mendoza injury would be the only scenarios that could jolt these long-shot contracts upward. Barring something truly seismic, these 1 cent prices look like they are headed to zero on April 30 when the contracts expire.