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Market Context for KXNFLDRAFTTOP
NFL Draft Rumors: Who Will Land in the Top Three Picks?
The 2026 NFL Draft, set to kick off April 23 in Pittsburgh, is shaping up to have one clear frontrunner at the top of the board — though the rest of the first round could unfold in plenty of different directions.
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is essentially a lock for the first overall pick to the Las Vegas Raiders. After winning the Heisman Trophy and leading the Hoosiers to an undefeated national championship, Mendoza topped Mel Kiper's Big Board after completing 72% of his passes for 3,535 yards, 41 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. Prediction market platform Kalshi shows near-total certainty, with his top-three contract sitting at a 97-cent midpoint.
Ohio State edge rusher Arvell Reese is widely projected to go third overall to the New York Jets. His ability to rush the passer and play in coverage gives teams elite defensive flexibility. Reese has drawn significant pre-draft attention, and one Kalshi market tracking his draft position reflects notable trading activity, with a spread of just 4 cents, though the specific market details have not been confirmed as directly tied to his top-five odds.
Offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa is projected as the 12th overall pick, bringing his blocking ability to whichever team selects him. A physically dominant blocker who excelled during the Hurricanes' playoff run, Mauigoa brings both power and technical polish to an Arizona team that will no doubt look to him as their starting right tackle from day one.
TOPDRAFT Contract: Carnell Tate Example — Top 3 Pick in the 2026 NFL Draft
1. What You're Betting On
You're betting on whether Carnell Tate will be selected with one of the first three picks in the 2026 NFL Draft. If his name is called at pick 1, 2, or 3, this pays out Yes.
2. How It Resolves
Yes ($1.00): Carnell Tate is officially selected with pick #1, #2, or #3 in the 2026 NFL Draft, as reported by any Source Agency.
No ($0.00): Tate is drafted at pick #4 or later, goes undrafted, or withdraws from the draft before being selected.
What counts:
Being picked at slots 1, 2, or 3 — period. It doesn't matter which team originally owned the pick or how many times it was traded. Pick #3 is pick #3 regardless of who's on the clock.
Being drafted at pick #3 and then immediately traded to another team — still Yes. The contract cares about draft slot, not destination.
Being picked despite injury concerns, failed physicals, or pre-draft controversy — still Yes if the pick is officially announced.
A postponed but eventually completed draft — still counts.
What does NOT count:
Being selected at pick #4 or later (even #4 — the boundary is strict)
Going undrafted entirely
Withdrawing from the draft before selection
Being picked in a supplemental draft (unless the contract specifically includes it, which a standard NFL entry draft specification would not)
Who decides: The NFL league office is the primary authority, along with ESPN, The Athletic, AP, official team websites, league broadcast partners, and other listed Source Agencies. You noted the governing league and ESPN — either is sufficient on its own.
3. Key Dates & Times
Draft date: The 2026 NFL Draft (typically late April — exact date TBD).
Expiration Date: One week after the scheduled completion of the draft. Since the top 3 picks happen on Day 1 (Round 1), the outcome will be known almost immediately, but the contract technically allows up to a week.
Expiration Time: 10:00 AM ET on the expiration date.
Last Trading Date/Time: Same as expiration.
Settlement: No later than the day after expiration (unless under review).
Early Resolution: Yes — once all listed
<person>strikes across the market have had their draft fate determined (i.e., they were either picked in the top 3 or the third pick has been made and they weren't on it), the contract can resolve early per Rule 7.2. In practice, this means the contract could resolve within hours of the first round ending.
4. Quirks & Edge Cases
Pick number is based on actual draft order, not projections. Mock drafts are irrelevant. Only the official order as it plays out on draft night matters.
Trades don't change the pick number. If a team trades up to pick #3 and selects Tate, that's still pick #3. The contract tracks the slot, not the team.
Voided picks still count. If Tate is selected at #3 and the pick is later voided for some reason, the contract has already resolved Yes. This is a notable edge case — once the pick is announced, it's locked in for contract purposes.
Revisions after expiration are ignored. If the league somehow revised draft results after the expiration time, it wouldn't affect the payout.
Multiple players can resolve Yes. This contract likely has multiple
<person>strikes (e.g., Tate, Shedeur Sanders, Cam Ward, Travis Hunter, etc.). Each player drafted in the top 3 resolves their own strike to Yes — up to three players can resolve Yes in a "top 3" market.Compensatory picks: Not relevant for top 3 (compensatory picks come at the end of rounds), but the rules note they'd count if they fell within the specified range.
Position limit: $25,000 per strike, per member.
5. Who Can't Trade This
Employees of any Source Agency (NFL league office, ESPN, The Athletic, AP, team websites, broadcast partners, etc.)
Anyone with material non-public information about draft selections (team front offices, scouts with inside knowledge of a team's pick, NFL officials)
Anyone who can influence the outcome (GMs, coaches, team ownership with decision-making authority over a top-3 pick)
6. Bottom Line for Traders
This is a straightforward draft position bet. The only thing that matters is whether Tate's name is called at pick 1, 2, or 3 — not which team picks him, not whether he's traded afterward, not what mock drafts say. Watch the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft; you'll know the answer within the first fifteen minutes. The one quirk worth remembering: even a voided pick counts, so if the selection is announced on stage, the contract is effectively settled at that moment regardless of what happens next.