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What’s Happening: Oklahoma City is in full-on juggernaut mode. With Wednesday’s 138–89 demolition of Phoenix in the NBA Cup quarterfinal, the defending champs pushed their winning streak to 16, the longest in franchise history, and matched the 2016 Warriors’ 24–1 start — the best 25-game open the league has ever seen. And they’ve done it while navigating injuries: Shai missed Utah, Hartenstein and Joe have been out, and rotation pieces have shuffled. Yet the formula hasn’t wavered — relentless pace, early knockouts, massive assist totals, and front-line dominance from Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. The next test: Spurs in the Cup semifinal in Vegas, a game that does count toward the streak.

Market Pricing

Scenarios:
If OKC clears the Spurs in Vegas — a team they outmatch in efficiency by double digits — then the streak likely pushes into the low 20s, especially with a soft pocket on the schedule afterward. Momentum plus roster reinforcements (SGA minutes trending down due to blowouts) strengthen the mid-range outcomes (20–25).

If the Thunder finally get a clutch-time test — something they’ve barely faced all season — late-game variance re-enters. A tight contest where SGA or Holmgren sits for rest is the clearest path to the streak stalling in the high teens.

Trading Takeaway:
OKC is treating opponents like speed bumps, posting leads of 20+ more often than they trail at all. Liquidity is still clustered in the conservative bands (20+, 25+), where pricing remains justified by schedule, health trends, and the Thunder’s habit of ending games by the third quarter. Long tails (30+, 34+) are lottery tickets that don’t have to be bought yet.

Call: Stay long 20+ at 77¢ — still underpriced given OKC’s dominance and minimal fatigue risk.

What’s Happening: Michigan is back in crisis-hire mode after firing Sherrone Moore for cause on Dec. 10, ending a turbulent two-year run marked by NCAA issues and—ultimately—an internal investigation into an inappropriate relationship. Moore was later detained by police, detonating the program’s stability just ahead of the transfer-portal window. Biff Poggi steps in as interim only for the Citrus Bowl, but Michigan is launching a national search for a permanent leader at a moment when the coaching carousel has already thinned the top shelf. Still, this remains a blue-chip job: a recent national title, elite resources, and a Big Ten far more navigable than the SEC.

Early media chatter, betting markets, and alumni sentiment converge around recognizable names with winning pedigrees and/or Michigan ties: Kalen DeBoer, Jedd Fisch, Kenny Dillingham, Jesse Minter, and the occasional splash candidate (Brohm, Elko, Kelly).

The pressure point now: Michigan needs a hire before portal departures hollow out its 2026 roster.

Market Pricing

Scenarios

If Alabama’s playoff run ends early, DeBoer conversations could accelerate. He has Midwest ties, past EMU/Indiana stops, and an SEC pressure cooker he may view as replaceable. A real interview pushes his contract-buyout calculus into the market and likely drives his pricing into the low-30s.

If Washington’s Jedd Fisch signals genuine interest, his prior Michigan experience plus rapid rebuild track record at Arizona/Washington makes him the cleanest cultural and operational fit. Any credible report of an interview bumps Fisch back above DeBoer.

Trading Takeaway

DeBoer’s pricing is rich for a candidate facing multiple structural headwinds: he’s mid–CFP run, owes no institutional debt to Michigan, and would be leaving Alabama after just two seasons — a move the industry views as lateral at best and politically radioactive. Michigan boosters want a reset from Harbaugh-era entanglements, not another high-drama transition. Add in Bama’s massive resources and AD backing, and the base rate of coaches jumping from Alabama to Michigan is effectively zero.

Lean: DeBoer NO

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What’s Happening: The Falcons head to Tampa on a short week, already eliminated and battered by injuries, trying to play spoiler after losing seven of their last eight. Kirk Cousins is back but missing top weapons, leaving Atlanta leaning on Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts to keep the offense afloat.

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is fighting to stay atop the NFC South after dropping four of five. The good news: key pieces return tonight — Mike Evans and Tristan Wirfs — giving Baker Mayfield his most complete offense in months. The Bucs don’t need style points; they just need to stop the skid and keep control of the division.

Market Pricing

Scenarios

If Tampa’s offense finally clicks with Evans + Godwin + Egbuka + McMillan all active, the Bucs can stretch a thin Atlanta secondary and force Cousins into predictable pass-downs — where Tampa’s blitz packages feast.

If Cousins repeats his historical success vs. Tampa (14 TD, 2 INT career vs Bucs), Atlanta has a real spoiler path even without London — especially if Pitts (questionable) is functional and working the seams.

Trading Takeaway

Tampa’s healthier, deeper, and playing with season-level urgency… but the market is already pricing that optimism at 69¢. Atlanta’s run-game matchup + “unlucky team” profile (six one-score losses) supports the dog keeping this close. Liquidity is strong enough to size positions comfortably, but spreads remain modest. Lean: Atlanta Yes at 31¢ as the value side, fading a Bucs offense that hasn’t earned a near-70% win probability.

🏀 NBA

🏀 NCAA Men’s Basketball — Top 25

🏈 NFL

🏒 NHL

🏀 NCAA Men’s Basketball (Additional)

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