What do “Oscar odds” actually measure?
When people talk about Oscar odds today, they’re often referencing prediction markets, not just bookmakers or critics’ lists.
On platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, traders buy and sell contracts tied to specific Academy Awards outcomes:
“Will [Film X] win Best Picture at the Oscars?”
“Will [Actor Y] win Best Actor?”
“Will [Film Z] be nominated for Best Picture?”
Each contract pays $1 if the prediction is correct and $0 if it isn’t. The price in cents—say, 0.58 or 58¢—is the market’s implied probability that the outcome will happen.
So if One Battle After Another trades at 58% to win Best Picture, the market is saying there’s about a 58% chance it takes the Oscar, based on what traders collectively believe and are willing to put money behind.
Where do Oscar prediction odds come from?
1. Polymarket
Polymarket is a large crypto-based prediction market that runs deep Oscar boards for:
Best Picture winner and Best Picture nominees
Acting races like Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, and more
Feature categories such as Best Documentary Feature
For example, at the 2025 ceremony, Polymarket’s Best Picture market ended with Anora at essentially 100% just before the show—and it indeed won.
Looking ahead, Polymarket already hosts 2026 Oscars markets with titles like One Battle After Another, Hamnet, and Marty Supreme trading for Best Picture and nominations.
2. Kalshi
Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, also lists Oscars markets such as:
“Oscar for Best Picture?” (a multi-outcome market on the eventual winner)
“Oscar nominations for Best Picture / Best Actor / Best Cinematography?”
These are fully collateralized yes/no contracts regulated as event contracts under U.S. derivatives law.
3. Aggregators
Sites like PredictionHunt and aGamble pull data from multiple exchanges (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, etc.) and compute combined implied probabilities for events such as “2026 Oscars Best Picture”.
Those dashboards give you a single summary view of “what the markets expect” across platforms.
Snapshot: what Oscar markets expect right now (late 2025)
Odds move constantly, but as of December 8, 2025, the markets paint a clear picture for upcoming races:
1. Best Picture: 2026 front-runners
On Polymarket’s “Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner” market, One Battle After Another is the standout favorite, trading around the 70–75% range. Films like Hamnet and Marty Supreme sit in the high single digits.
A cross-platform analysis from aGamble estimates One Battle After Another around 58–60%, with Hamnet in the low 20s and everything else in single digits.
In other words, markets currently see 2026 Best Picture as OBAA’s race to lose, but not a total lock.
2. Acting and below-the-line categories
Polymarket’s 2025 markets finished with:
Adrien Brody essentially 100% to win Best Actor for The Brutalist
Kieran Culkin at 100% for Best Supporting Actor for A Real Pain
No Other Land at 100% for Best Documentary Feature
These “locked” odds right before the show matched the eventual winners, showcasing how markets can converge near-perfectly once enough precursor awards and reviews are in.
How Oscar prediction markets actually work
Despite the Hollywood glamour, the mechanics are simple:
The market question
Example:
“Will ‘One Battle After Another’ win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?”YES/NO contracts
Traders can buy YES (they think it wins) or NO (they think it doesn’t).
Each share pays $1 if the condition happens, $0 if not.
Price = implied probability
YES at 0.62 → market is saying ~62% chance of winning.
If traders think the “true” chance is higher than 62%, they buy; if lower, they sell.
Resolution rules
Polymarket, for example, specifies that Oscars markets resolve using official AMPAS information from the Oscars site and live broadcast, or a consensus of credible reporting if needed.Payout after the ceremony
Once the Academy announces the winners, the market resolves and payouts happen automatically via smart contracts (Polymarket) or through Kalshi’s clearinghouse (Kalshi).
Are Oscar prediction markets actually good forecasters?
There’s growing evidence they’re pretty good:
For the 97th Oscars (2025), analysts noted that Polymarket and Kalshi had Anora as a strong favorite for Best Picture heading into the ceremony—with probabilities around 60–65%—and it ultimately won.
A Hollywood Reporter analysis combining math models and betting odds similarly put Anora above 50% to win Best Picture.
More generally, research on prediction markets suggests that, when there’s enough liquidity, market-based odds can rival or beat traditional experts and polls, because they aggregate:
precursor awards (Critics’ Choice, BAFTAs, SAG, etc.)
critic scores and festival buzz
box office, streaming numbers, and online sentiment
Of course, markets still miss sometimes—surprise wins, late-breaking controversies, and category fraud can flip expected results.
How to read Oscar odds without getting lost
If you’re using Oscar prediction markets as information, not necessarily to trade, here’s how to interpret them:
Think in probabilities, not guarantees
70% odds means “favorite, but far from certain.”
10% odds means “real long shot,” not “impossible upset.”
Look at the whole board
For Best Picture, check the top few contenders and how far behind they are, not just who’s #1.
Watch how odds move over time
Festival premieres, critics’ awards, guild awards, and box office/streaming milestones all move prices. Big jumps usually reflect big new information.
Mind legality and risk
Kalshi’s Oscars contracts run under U.S. derivatives regulation; Polymarket operates globally and is returning to the U.S. via a licensed exchange structure, but access is still jurisdiction-dependent.
Some states treat certain event contracts as gambling; none of this is betting or investment advice.
Bottom line
Oscar odds from prediction markets are the market’s live, money-backed forecast of who will win at the Academy Awards. Right now they suggest:
One Battle After Another as a commanding but beatable favorite for 2026 Best Picture
A track record where late-stage favorites like Anora, Adrien Brody, Kieran Culkin, and No Other Land matched their strong market odds with actual Oscars wins in 2025
They won’t spoil every surprise—but if you want to know what the “wisdom of the crowd” expects on Oscar night, prediction markets are where that expectation gets a price tag.