Ca$h in on Culture
Prediction News Network delivers clear context and insight on tradable events, informed both by the event itself and the current price.
Trending Today: Leonardo DiCaprio Is TIME’s 2025 Entertainer of the Year. Who will be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Today’s Rundown:
What’s Happening: Paramount Skydance just detonated the biggest twist yet in Hollywood’s consolidation saga — an all-cash, hostile $108.4B bid for all of Warner Bros. Discovery. This comes 72 hours after WBD’s board accepted Netflix’s $82.7B partial-asset deal (studios + streaming only). Paramount is bypassing the board entirely and going straight to shareholders, armed with $54B in committed debt financing plus backstopping from the Ellison family, RedBird, and Gulf sovereign wealth funds.
The bid effectively pits Netflix vs. Paramount in a live takeover war, with Trump inserting himself into the antitrust discourse — signaling political volatility around approving any Netflix–WBD combination. A Paramount–WBD merger raises antitrust concerns as well, but far less severe than combining the No. 1 and No. 3 global streamers. Paramount argues Netflix’s regulatory odds are low and that shareholders will prefer its cleaner, all-cash structure.
Market Pricing
Before March: 20% — Yes 22¢ / No 83¢
Before June: 31% — Yes 31¢ / No 76¢
Before September: 37% — Yes 41¢ / No 67¢
Before December: 43% — Yes 44¢ / No 57¢
Resolution Note: Kalshi’s market rules only need a definitive, binding agreement to be publicly announced — not board endorsement, not deal closing. “The deal does not need to close as long as an agreement has been announced. Regulatory blocking or later cancellation does not affect resolution.”
Volume: ~$7,600
Scenarios:
If WBD’s board engages with Paramount under shareholder pressure, a definitive agreement can form quickly — hostile bids often transition to negotiated deals once financing is validated. That pushes “Before December” toward resolving Yes if an agreement is announced in the coming weeks.
If Netflix counters — or WBD stalls to preserve the Netflix deal — legal fights over break fees, fiduciary duties, and shareholder rights could drag timelines. That slows the clock and benefits later-dated markets (June/Sept).
If antitrust signaling escalates around Netflix’s offer, shareholders may pivot en masse to Paramount as the “approvable” alternative. A reduced regulatory overhang increases probability of a near-term announcement.
Trading Takeaway: This is the rare Kalshi M&A market where hostile-bid mechanics materially expand the path to a definitive agreement. Paramount has fully funded its offer, the politics trend against Netflix, and shareholders now hold the leverage — all catalysts for a faster-than-expected binding deal announcement. Liquidity is improving but still patchy; expect volatility around any board statements or counteroffers.
Position: Lean long “Before December” at 44¢
What’s Happening: Marty Supreme is Josh Safdie’s first solo feature since Uncut Gems, a period-set sports drama/comedy following the rise-and-spiral of 1950s table-tennis hustler Marty Mauser (Timothée Chalamet). Loosely inspired by real ping-pong showman Marty Reisman, the film tracks Marty as he flees his shoe-store job in Manhattan to chase international glory at tournaments abroad — a quest powered by charm, lies, and constant self-sabotage. Along the way he juggles two relationships (Odessa A’zion and Gwyneth Paltrow), tangles with shady businessmen and small-time gangsters, and burns every bridge in pursuit of becoming “the best in the world.” Shot on 35mm with lush Jack Fisk production design and scored with anachronistic ’80s needle drops, the film blends swagger, chaos, and Safdie’s trademark anxiety-rush pacing into a stylized underdog-turned-trainwreck epic.
Market Pricing
Above 90: 97% — Yes 94¢ / No 9¢
Above 92: 87% — Yes 87¢ / No 16¢
Above 95: 35% — Yes 35¢ / No 70¢
Above 97: 5% — Yes 5¢ / No 95¢
Volume: ~$70K+
Market closes: Dec 29, 2025 at 10:00 AM ET
Scenarios:
If late-cycle reviews mirror the current mix — high praise tempered by recurring notes on bloat and uneven character work — the score likely settles in the 93–95 band. That keeps the 92+ strikes safe and leaves 95 as a coin-flip ceiling.
If awards-season boosters (NY critics, LA critics) land strongly and push a prestige narrative around Chalamet’s “career performance,” the Tomatometer can tick upward a point or two, consolidating at 95 and giving the 95-plus strike real lift.
Trading Takeaway: The market is basically priced-in everywhere below 92; no juice left there. The only asymmetric opportunity is Above 95 at 35¢ — a sharp but fragile upside play given the current 95% RT base. You are trading variance, not trend. For traders comfortable with ceiling volatility: Long Above 95 at 35¢.
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What’s Happening: Week 14 closes under the SoFi lights with two 8–4 teams heading in opposite directions. Philadelphia arrives on a two-game skid, averaging just 15.5 PPG since the bye, and struggling to protect Jalen Hurts with Lane Johnson still out. Saquon Barkley’s output has cratered from last year, and the red-zone efficiency drop has sapped finishing power. A.J. Brown is heating up again, but the Eagles’ offense remains disjointed.
The Chargers, meanwhile, have won 4 of 5 and are getting above-expectation QB play from Justin Herbert despite his left-hand injury. Greg Roman’s ground game has come alive (192 rush yards last week), and the defense is a legitimate backbone—2nd vs the pass, 3rd total D, quietly one of the league’s stingiest units. Herbert is questionable but trending toward playing; rookie RB Omarion Hampton is likely back. With both teams fighting for playoff footing, this is a tone-setter for December.
Market Pricing
Philadelphia: 55¢ (▼1)
Los Angeles C: 45¢ (▲1)
Line movement: Market has held Philly as a small favorite, but Chargers money has shown up as Herbert’s availability improved and Philly’s offensive slide continued.
Volume: $2.47M+ on Kalshi
Game time: 8:15 pm ET
Scenarios
If the Chargers replicate Chicago’s run script, exploiting Philly’s depleted front without Jalen Carter, L.A. can shorten the game and open up Herbert’s intermediate passing lanes—tilting leverage toward the Chargers' 45¢ Yes.
If Jalen Hurts stabilizes early accuracy and the Eagles’ passing game survives the NFL’s No. 2 pass defense, Philly can control tempo and force Herbert into higher-variance dropbacks behind an injury-riddled offensive line.
If turnovers swing the night, it likely breaks Philly’s way—Eagles own a +5 differential, and L.A. is winless ATS when losing the turnover battle.
Trading Takeaway: The Chargers’ defensive profile—elite against the pass, disciplined on third down—directly targets Philly’s weakest current phase. The Eagles’ trench injuries and red-zone downturn keep the downside exposed. Liquidity is strong, spreads tight, and the public still leans on preseason priors for Philadelphia.
Predict: At 45¢, Chargers Yes is the cleaner long with matchup support and healthier offensive momentum.
🏆 Today’s Games
1 NFL Game Today for Week 14: Monday Night Football closes out Week 14 from LA at 8:15 pm ET.
3 NBA games tonight: Sacramento (40%) heads to Indiana to take on the Pacers (61%) at 7:00 pm ET. Phoenix (21%) visits Minnesota, where the Timberwolves (80%) look for their 6th straight win at 7:30 pm ET. San Antonio (79%) travels to New Orleans to face the Pelicans (22%) at 8:00 pm ET.
0 Top 25 College Basketball Games: No ranked matchups tonight.
5 NHL games: Tampa Bay (55%) heads to Toronto to take on the Maple Leafs (46%) at 7:30 pm ET. Los Angeles (51%) visits Utah (50%) at 9:00 pm ET. Buffalo (51%) travels to Calgary to face the Flames (50%) at 9:00 pm ET. Minnesota (57%) goes on the road to Seattle to meet the Kraken (44%) at 10:00 pm ET. Detroit (53%) is in Vancouver to take on the Canucks (48%) at 10:00 pm ET.
🐳 Polymarket Whales Today
$19,927 — Suns bought at 22¢ for Suns vs. Timberwolves by nba0001
$10,980 — No sold at 99¢ for Xi Jinping out in 2025? by btceth12
$143,041 — Yes sold at 94¢ for Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? by tgrdy
$29,260 — Timberwolves bought at 77¢ for Suns vs. Timberwolves by JohnLeftman
$17,325 — Timberwolves bought at 77¢ for Suns vs. Timberwolves by TheCheatCode
🤩 New Markets
🎭 Critics Choice Award for Best Actress in a Drama Series?
• Rhea Seehorn — 72%
• Britt Lower — 37%⚽️ Will Trinity Rodman play in the NWSL next year?
🏛 Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
• Yes — 30%🇪🇺 Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
• Yes — 9%📺 Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
• Yes — 17%🏛 Tim Walz charged by March 31?
• Yes — 4%🅰️ Almanak FDV above __ one day after launch?
• $80M — 79%
• $100M — 62%🎤 Will aespa reach #1 on Melon this week?
• Yes — 38%
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💸 What is PNN?
Prediction News Network delivers clear context and insight on tradable events.
We’re here to help you cash in on culture - the front page of tradable events, from the latest news to cultural context, and the market signals that tie them together. PNN coverage is informed both by the event itself and the current price, an intersection of culture and the market. For example:
Dancing experts believe Alix Earle is a near equal to Robert Irwin, a near coin flip winner, but markets give her only a 27% chance to win. Alix performs first, look to buy and flip quickly after her individual score as she is unlikely to secure the ultimate victory, but will be competitive the whole night.
Just like how Robinhood Snacks simplified financial news or Morning Brew made daily news digestible, we’re doing the same for prediction markets. PNN provides coverage of real-world events meeting real-time odds: cultural context and market movement in one place.
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